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Saturday, April 14, 2007
posted by jason | 9:18 PM | permalink



In what many palmetto political insiders will find as a huge surprise, Mitt Romney won tonight’s Charleston County GOP straw poll by double digit margins.

Why the surprise? 2 reasons: First, outgoing Charleston County GOP Chairwoman Cyndi Mosteller is a huge McCain supporter and has been working her members for months for the McCain campaign. She gained national attention a few months back for accosting Romney for his faith during a SCGOP executive committee meeting. Second, the lowcountry has always been McCain’s South Carolina stronghold and is where he received the majority of his votes against Bush in 2000.

Here are the results:

Romney – 36%
McCain – 23%
Giuliani – 14%
Brownback – 9%
Hunter - 5%
Gingrich – 4%
Huckabee – 4%
F Thompson – 3%
Cox – 1%
Tancredo – 1%
T Thompson – 1%
Gilmore – 0%

240 votes were cast in tonight’s straw poll. Link


Hat tip Elect Romney Blog.
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2 Comments:


I'm not too big on these straw polls out county dinners where some of the candidates speak. It's great to win . . . but people are prone to vote for the guy who showed up (as evidenced by McCain's 65% in Western Michigan similar event earlier this week).

Still, getting as much as Rudy and McCain combined never hurts . . . poor Cox showed up and only got 2 people to vote for him.



Saturday's Horry County straw poll had Romney at 39%, McCain at 22%, and everybody else at 9% or less.

http://www.myrtlebeachonline.com/mld/myrtlebeachonline/news/local/17081610.htm

By Anonymous Anonymous, at April 15, 2007 at 6:49 AM  



Friday, April 13, 2007
posted by jason | 10:18 PM | permalink
Romney up 5 points, Giuliani and McCain down 7.

National Primary
Republicans March 2007 April 2007

Brownback 1% 1%
Gilmore 1% -
Giuliani 34% 27%
Gingrich 12% 10%
Hagel 1% 1%
Huckabee 1% 1%
Hunter - -
McCain 30% 23%
Pataki 1% -
Paul 1% -
Romney 7% 12%
Tancredo 1% 1%
F Thompson ni 9%
T Thompson 1% 1%
Undecided 9% 14%


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That's awesome news for Romney! Fred Thompson's presence has taken away from McCain and Giuliani. Romney's increased platform and exposure have continued to build and his numbers are climbing IN SPITE of the presence of Fred Thompson.




posted by Justin Hart | 3:59 PM | permalink
Noted on the Hotline

Total receipts in the first quarter:

Total receipts were $23,434,634.25, all for the Primary.

The $23.4 million figure is comprised of not only contributions and the governor's loan, but several other items:

Net contributions $20,737,149.05

Loan from Gov. Romney $2,350,000.00

Refunded contributions $245,539.18

Vendor refunds $99,420.01

Interest income $2,426.01

Other refunds $100.00

Number of donations and contributors:

36,538 donations, 32,074 unique donors

Top 10 states for donations:

In order: California, Utah, Massachusetts, Texas, Michigan, New York, Florida, Arizona, Ohio, Connecticut

Breakdown of itemized (over $200) vs. un-itemized (under $200) contributions: 38%, or 12,236 donors, were itemized (over $200); 62%, or 19,838, were un-itemized (under $200)

Internet Contributions: Over $7.2 million was raised online ($7,206,216.59). This breaks down into:

$3,365,625.59 in pure and simple website fundraising, and
$3,840,591.00 raised through Quick ComMitt, our online fundraising pledge entry tool

Disbursements

Cash on hand: 11,863,652.79

Investment rate: Our investment rate was 49.37%. Total receipts were $23,434,634.25. Total disbursed was $11,570,981.46, leaving $11,863,652.79 cash on hand.

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2 Comments:


The MSM will have a hay day with this on Monday. They'll ignore that California was the largest contributor, and hone in on the per capita numbers, putting Utah in first. But 11M in cash? That's great. With only 40K unique donors, I am guessing many people have been holding back to test his legitimacy. Now that Romney is bonafide, I predict more people will be jumping on the bandwagon.

By Anonymous Anonymous, at April 14, 2007 at 1:05 AM  


Let's assume that all of his unique donors (32000) max out their contributions. That means if there is no growth in his donor base, he will still be able to raise 73.6 million dollars. Wow!

Now, let's assume that the donor base grows at a modest 4% each month. In ten months, it would translate into 109 million. It is not unrealistic to see it happen.

If the campaign is out there reading this, may I suggest a tactic. Not sure if it legal or if there is an ethical problem, but since the other campaigns have listed their donors, would it not make sense to contact these people on these lists as well? If you only get a 5% response rate that still is a valuable, untapped market.




posted by Justin Hart | 11:43 AM | permalink
Governor Romney has a busy weekend ahead of him!

FRIDAY
10:00AM - Governor Romney Holds Small Business "Ask Mitt Anything" in SC

3:00 - Governor Romney Holds Press Conference at Patriots Point, SC

6:45 - Governor Romney Attends the Charleston County Convention

SATURDAY
9:30 - Governor Romney Attends the Horry County Convention, SC

1:00 - Governor Romney Attends the York County Convention, SC

4:30 PM - Gov. Romney addresses the Polk County Lincoln Day Dinner, IA

SUNDAY
7:15 PM - Governor Mitt Romney Keynotes Merrimack and Sullivan Counties Republican Lincoln Day Dinner, NH

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posted by Justin Hart | 7:12 AM | permalink

We've documented before the huge interest in the blogging community of people vying for Mitt with exclusive Romney blogs.


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Justin -- Where are you? You have to at least be an honorary member of the family by now...

By Anonymous Anonymous, at April 13, 2007 at 7:45 AM  



Thursday, April 12, 2007
posted by jason | 2:30 PM | permalink
Matt Towery at Human Events makes an astute observation:
As for the Republicans, the predominant notion that Rudy Giuliani is the frontrunner is a farce. Yes, he leads in just about every poll in every state among Republican voters. But I've been around national GOP politics for too many decades not to know one essential thing: To win, a candidate must have superior grassroots organization. Giuliani doesn't.

The leader in this race is the one who barely scratches in polls right now, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.

To borrow Barbara Bush's line from 2004, "I've seen this movie before, and I don't like the way it ends." Well, I don't know about the ending, but I can tell you that Romney has signed up virtually every Bush Republican in every key state. In Florida, he has the Jeb Bush organization and most of the prominent, longtime Republican establishment behind him.

John McCain likely will have Florida's governor, Charlie Crist, in his corner.

What does Giuliani have? The driest, least prepossessing political figure in that state, former Congressman and now state Attorney General Bill McCollum. An odder couple than Giuliani and McCollum would be hard to find.

Yes, McCain has name ID around the country. And, were they to run, unannounced candidates Fred Thompson and Newt Gingrich could capture Republican voters desperate to reestablish the party's pre-George W. Bush philosophical ground.

Be all that as it may, you can take this to the bank: Mitt Romney will end up being the man they all have to beat. He will spend his mountain of money on a thing called television, and that will allow him to hide his ultra-sophisticated personality from those wary of having an urbane president.

Once he's known, he'll have the might of the GOP's old guard behind him.

The candidates may not know the best road to win the presidential race, but too many in media don't even seem to know what planet the race is being held on.

First, I hope Republius can see this as a partial answer to his question on Gramm and Romney. I am not so presumptuous to claim Romney as the front runner, but I will say he is the guy in first place...that's a joke. Actually I think he is probably on even par now with McCain. Except Romney is headed north and McCain is headed south.

Rudy is still in the lead, albeit not as comfortably as he was in March. If I was a supporter I would be leary to send Rudy a check now when you consider his knack for saying liberal things, no ground structure, and no substantive ideas presented as of yet. But hey, people have done crazier things. Remember the Yugo?

I remember in February reading on Redstate and other blogs I frequent that McCain had a juggernaut in South Carolina that was tough to beat- I don't think anyone would actually claim that today. McCain does have a good ground game, one that will carry him through to the primaries, even if he ended up polling at 3%.

Yesterday I showed the folks here the clear muscle Romney has built in Michigan, but now we have this today. I do agree with Towery's assertion that Romney's campaign force is going to be the team to beat. The biggest miscalculation is to somehow think this guy can't forecast his future earnings and have a longterm game plan. Clearly when you think of Romney's organization (already paying off in IA, SC, MI, and NH,) fundraising, policy proposals and his past track record there is no denying that Romney is the guy to beat.
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posted by jason | 1:49 PM | permalink
Romney For President West Michigan Leadership Team:



· Pete Hoekstra, U.S. Representative

· J.C. Huizenga, Romney for President West Michigan Finance Chair

· Cameron Brown, State Senator

· Ron Jelinek, State Senator

· Ken Sikkema, Former Senate Majority Leader

· Goeff Hansen, State Representative

· David Hildenbrand, State Representative

· Neal Nitz, State Representative

· David Palsrok, State Representative

· Tom Pearce, State Representative

· Tonya Schuitmaker, State Representative

· Rick Shaffer, State Representative

· Fulton Sheen, State Representative

· Jim Koetje, Former State Representative

· Jerry Kooiman, Former State Representative

· Gerry Hildenbrand, 6th District Chair-State Committee Member

· Keith Den Hollander, Former 3rd District Committee Member / 3rd District Treasurer

· Thomas Newman, Former 6th District Chair / State Committee Member

· Jennifer Schultz, Former State Committee Member / Former Vice Chair

· Jean Coleman, State Committee Member

· Kyle Olson, State Committee Member

· Joan Runnels, State Committee Member

· Jon DeWitte, Ottawa County Chair

· Tony Garofalo, Allegan County Chair

· Bill LaBre, Cass County Chair

· Libby Child, Former Kent County Chair

· Rich Blatchford, Newaygo City Manager

· Karen Buie, Muskegon County Clerk

· Don Nugent, Michigan State University Trustee

· Linda Landheer, Newaygo Register Of Deeds

· Bret Witkowski, Berrien County Treasurer / Former County GOP Chair
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posted by Justin Hart | 12:27 PM | permalink

Gov. Romney joins up with YouTube's ongoing program: YouChoose '08 where Presidential candidates have a dialogue around the issues. Mitt is asking: "What do you believe is America's single greatest challenge?" You can post a response or even post a video response as we did. (see below:




My response:

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posted by Justin Hart | 6:54 AM | permalink
Mitt Romney and Phil Gramm?Be sure you read the detailed response of our own Kyle Hampton below

There's been a bit of discussion comparing Mitt Romney to Phil Gramm. Most recently Steve Kornacki in the New York observer tries his hand at it.

In an excellent response, poster HeavyM at Race42008 makes these excellent rebuttals:

Why Mitt Romney Isn’t Phil Gramm - The Conclusive Decision

1. Phil Gramm raised $19 million total for his entire campaign, in an era where there were no limits on campaign donations. Indeed, much of that ($4.1 million) was raised in one night by hitting up huge corporate donors. In contrast, Mitt Romney has raised $21 million in just three months, and people were limited to a maximum contribution of $2,300 - meaning Romney has a much larger and much more grass roots base of support.

2. Phil Gramm’s campaign was well known and well maligned for its deficits in the areas of structure and intellect. In contrast, Romney’s campaign thrives on those very two areas.

3. Phil Gramm often trailed his opponents by 30-40 points in the polls, and sometimes nearly 50 points. In contrast, Romney is polling within 15 points nationally according to Rasmussen, is within 3-17 in Iowa according to who you ask, and is within 6-7 or tied for the lead in New Hampshire according to different polls.

4. Phil Gramm constantly misspoke about the abortion issue during his campaign, a la Rudy Giuliani, saying that although he was pro-life, he wouldn’t make that a part of his campaign, earning the ire of socons everywhere. He even hired pro-choice staffers. In contrast, Mitt openly talks about abortion and his pro-life conversion and recognizes its importance in the race.

5. Phil Gramm ran as a fiscal conservative, but was maligned by his opponents, the Democrats, and the media for bringing home huge amounts of pork for his homestate of Texas (as well as his own actual bragging about how much he was bringing in for TX). In contrast, Mitt Romney is running as a fiscal conservative who governed fiscally in Massachusetts and is known as a waste-eliminator.

6. Phil Gramm suffered several scandals coming to light during the campaign, including his “unknowingly” funding a porn production to the tune of $7,500 and being involved in some very shady quid pro quo Savings and Loans deals. In contrast, Mitt Romney is known as the squeaky clean candidate in this race - the worst dirt anyone has on him is that he once donated $250 to a Democrat in a primary campaign.

7. Phil Gramm was known as harsh and cutthroat during his Senate tenure and on the campaign trail, and was known to berate his staff and his aids. In contrast, Mitt Romney is personable, charismatic, and likable, and definitely not known as mean by any stretch.

8. Let’s be honest, here… Phil Gramm was kind of an ugly dude. Mitt Romney, on the other hand, well… it’s the hair, baby. :)

That should put this issue to rest permanently.


We couldn't say it any better!

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posted by Justin Hart | 6:04 AM | permalink
Big thanks to MMM reader Rhane who points out that Mitt Romney has a profile on Yahoo answers and that he has posted an excellent question for people to answer:


Along with the email yesterday asking for feedback on foreign policy issues... I can tell you from personal experience that Mitt means it. He LOVES feedback.

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2 Comments:


The Romney Querie has been up with his picture on the featured section of the Yahoo! home page for some time today.

By Anonymous Anonymous, at April 12, 2007 at 3:14 PM  


It's a great question posed from a prospective Commander in Chief. Taxes are the bane of our existence and the current system is crippling us. The only answer is to eliminate the IRS completely in its current state and implement a consumption tax. It's the only answer and the best answer.

By Anonymous Anonymous, at April 25, 2007 at 8:46 PM  



Wednesday, April 11, 2007
posted by jason | 10:35 PM | permalink
InsiderAdvantage/ Majority Opinion Poll of Potential GOP Primary Candidates: Giuliani, McCain, Gingrich and Romney Tied in Statistical Dead Heat In SC.


Giuliani: 18%
McCain: 17%
Gingrich: 16%
Romney: 14%
(Fred) Thompson: 9%
Gilmore: 4%
Huckabee: 3%
Brownback: 2%
Hunter: 1%
Paul: 1%
Undecided/ Don’t know: 15%


...Also of note is Romney’s showing in the poll. This is the first InsiderAdvantage/ Majority Opinion survey in major Southern states to show Romney in double digits. The Fox News poll also showed Romney with 14 percent. This reflects the candidate’s many visits to the state and the fact that South Carolina voters are looking at the potential contest more closely than in most other Southern states.


Things are tightening up in SC. Remember this is the same number Romney received in the recent Fox News Poll.

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For many reasons, this is the most impressive poll yet.




posted by Justin Hart | 8:18 PM | permalink

Romney is one of the few candidates to formulate a solid and specific foreign policy.

Governor Romney’s Plan To Meet a New Generation Of Global Challenges

1. Invest in our military. Ensure funds are used to address critical needs of our men and women serving in the armed forces.

2. America must become energy independent.

3. Transform and strengthen our civilian international efforts.

4. Strengthen old partnerships and alliances, and inaugurate a new one to address Jihadism.

OTHER NEWS ITEMS
The Fresh Candidate

Mayor Rudy Giuliani Admirer Concerned Over Schiavo Case Explanation

Ryan Sager of the New York Sun, who has been a strong and sympathetic pro-Giuliani media voice, questions the preparation of the Mayor for his visit to Florida last month in being inevitably pressed for his position on the Terri Schiavo case.

Mitt Romney Remark's At The George Bush Presidential Library Center (full text)

McCain Trims Headquarters Staff
via Hotline On Call by hotlineblog on Apr 11, 2007

Sen. John McCain 's campaign retooling continues.

Manager Terry Nelson is trimming some of the organization's vestigial edges to pare down costs and more efficiently distribute key staff. Contrary to rumors, the campaign is not shedding weight in order to slow down its cash burn rate.

Nelson has decided to eliminated several staff positions from the campaign's May budget, some yet to be filled. In addition, several campaign consultants will see their contracts modified. Others currently on retainer will work for the campaign on a per-project basis.

Key departments, including political affairs, communications and the field staff in early primaries states -- were spared, and some instances, are still hiring.

A campaign aide characterized the changes as "minor adjustments."

After having raised $12.5 million, a solid but below-average sum for the Republican field, the campaign revamped its finance operation, bringing in Republican lobbyist and fundraising wizard Tom Loeffler to oversee fundraising, and asking Republican strategist Steve Schmidt to look after spending more carefully.

During February and March, McCain's campaign hired a staff of more than 120, and it staged several expensive bus trips through Iowa and New Hampshire. A trip through South Carolina is planned for next week.

Because a detailed accounting of McCain's spending hasn't yet be released, it's not clear whether the campaign began to pay the legion of consultants it has signed up.

The campaign aide declined to say how much McCain spent during the first quarter although McCain advisers have emphasized that the campaign's monetary difficulties revolved around the tasks of raising money, rather than the rate at which the money was spent.

Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney raised $24M and spent $12M.

McCain's first quarter filings will be available on Saturday. [MARC AMBINDER]

Deroy Murdock on Giuliani's Abortion Record

Elizabeth Edwards: My neighbor a “rabid, rabid Republican”

Gingrich Turning Green, Looking Foolish

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posted by Justin Hart | 1:49 PM | permalink
I just got an email from Howard Dean. I have to give the Dems this. They know how to elicit a reaction among their base and how to capitalize on it. I know that many pundits of late have made beans about the Dems outraising the GOP online. My theory: The Dems have a hot button issue that evokes emotion and they are willing (some would say conniving) to monetize that issue as best they can.

See for yourself.

Right now McCain taking heat from the left for being solid on Iraq. He's almost a lightning rod for the left's pure animus about the war. Why?

Because secretly would love to vote for the guy if he would just denounce Bush like he usually does. Instead he's standing on principle.

Unfortunately for McCain - he's the punching bag - not Romney or Rudy.

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posted by Kyle Hampton | 11:42 AM | permalink
Steve Kornacki, an organizer for Unity08 (a group that advocates a bipartisan Presidential ticket in 2008) rehashes the same hit material on Mitt Romney that we’ve all heard before:

“But Mr. Romney’s political and financial positioning at this early stage actually invites a parallel to Phil Gramm and his lavishly funded—and epically catastrophic—quest for the G.O.P. nomination in 1996.”

“And it’s only a matter of time before Mr. Romney, who is blessed with a more agreeable personality than Mr. Gramm, sees his early appeal to conservative donors
undercut by YouTube”

“But in this era of viral video, how can Mr. Romney claim the “conservative’s conservative” mantle when he’s left such a vivid, meandering trail?”
You know, same old stuff. But the line that stood out to me was earlier in the piece:

“There is reason to believe that Mr. Obama’s exalted standing could be of the lasting variety, since his financial support indicates an enviable mix of grass-roots fervor and professional muscle.

But Mr. Romney’s view from the top may be very short-lived indeed.”
Somehow this is Kornacki’s astute analysis: Obama’s numbers mean something while Romney’s don’t. Then comes the tie in with Phil Gramm. There is no explanation as to why Romney’s numbers are meaningless besides the strained attempt to parallel the Gramm campaign. I mean no disrespect to Senator Obama, who in fact does have very enviable numbers both on the total amount raised and the number of donors. However, the attempt to paint Romney as a Gramm reincarnate is misguided to say the least. Did they both have successful fundraising? Yes. Are they both conservative? Yes. But the same comparison could be made to a number of candidates, past and present. Thus, if these were the only two criteria to compare one unfavorably to Phil Gramm, then Kornacki has unnaturally narrowed the field. Kornacki also glosses over the differences between Romney and Gramm, even the ones exposed in his own piece:
“Mr. Gramm, who was fond of noting that he’d flunked the third, seventh, and ninth grades…”
Does this sound like Romney? Or maybe this is Romney:
“The reasons were myriad: over-inflated expectations, strategic miscalculations, prolonged blundering on a politically sensitive topic in New Hampshire, and an obscene “burn rate” of campaign cash with no discernible benefits in return.”
None of these descriptors that Kornacki uses to describe Gramm match Romney. Indeed, in reading the article, it becomes painfully apparent that Kornacki is projecting. He wants Romney to be Gramm and so tries to parallel Gramm’s failed presidential bid. But wanting it to be so does not make it so. If Kornacki were more honest with himself he might see more parallels between a current candidate for president that raised the most cash, is a second term senator, faces inflated expectation, prolonged blundering on the most politically sensitive topic of the day (Iraq), and panders to the senator’s base: Hillary Clinton.

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To predict the fate of the Romney candidacy without trying to grasp the wonderful personal qualities and leadership aptitude that make him such an attractive candidate is a shallow analysis at best.

By Anonymous Anonymous, at April 11, 2007 at 1:23 PM  


They may be doubtful now but just wait till Mitt is in the oval office. Mitt has a big following because he carries the right tools for the job and has the values that many have been waiting to see in a president. Talk all you want, but Mitt has it going on!

By Anonymous Anonymous, at April 11, 2007 at 2:25 PM  



posted by jason | 10:56 AM | permalink

GOVERNOR MITT ROMNEY NAMES

CALIFORNIA LEADERSHIP TEAM

Boston, MA Governor Mitt Romney today announced the first 15 members of the Romney for President California Leadership Team, a group of leading Californians who will support Governor Romney as he campaigns in the state and across the nation. California Senate Republican Leader Dick Ackerman and former Assemblyman Tony Strickland will serve as Chairmen of the effort.

"I am honored to have the backing of these dedicated leaders in the Golden State," said Governor Romney. "Their record of service is proof that President Reagan's legacy is alive and well in California. We all believe that strong and unflinching leadership is once again needed to restore fiscal sanity in Washington, D.C."

With today's announcement, Senator Ackerman said, "In the private and public sectors, Mitt Romney has distinguished himself through his intellect and his commitment to innovation. The Republican Party must reestablish itself as the guardian of fiscal responsibility, and Governor Romney is the right leader to make that happen."

Joining Senator Ackerman, Tony Strickland added, "Governor Romney accomplished an impressive feat by bringing fiscal discipline to one of the nation's most liberal states. As a lifelong fiscal conservative, I am troubled by the spending binge we've seen at the federal level. Our nation needs a strong and tested leader like Mitt Romney to put our nation's finances back on track."

Background On Romney For President California Leadership Chairmen:

Senator Dick Ackerman Is The Republican Leader Of The California State Senate. Southern California native Dick Ackerman has represented Orange County in the state Legislature since his election to the Assembly in 1995. In 2000, he was elected to the State Senate, where he currently serves the 33rd District and as Republican Leader. As one of the four legislative leaders negotiating the state budget, he has worked hard to reduce state spending and borrowing. Prior to his tenure in the Legislature, Senator Ackerman had a long record of service in local government. He served on the Fullerton City Council for 12 years, including two terms as mayor.

Tony Strickland Is A Former State Assemblyman Who Was The 2006 Republican Nominee For State Controller. During three terms in the Assembly, Strickland earned a reputation as a taxpayer advocate and for holding government accountable. A founding member and past President of the California Club for Growth, Strickland has spent the past several years rallying California's grassroots fiscal conservatives to advocate for lower taxes and less regulation as well as business and job growth. He is a Board Member of the Ventura County Council Boy Scouts of America, an Advisory Committee Member of Food Share, and an Honorary Board Member of the Moorpark Boys & Girls Club in addition to being active in numerous civic, business and church organizations throughout Ventura County.

Romney For President California Leadership Team Co-Chairs:

· Assemblyman Anthony Adams, Monrovia

· Former Assembly Leader Scott Baugh, Huntington Beach

· Former Assemblyman and Republican Caucus Chair Russ Bough, Yucaipa

· Congressman John Campbell, Newport Beach

· Fresno City Councilman Jerry Duncan, Fresno

· State Senator Bob Dutton, Rancho Cucamonga

· Assemblyman Doug LaMalfa, Richvale

· State Senator Bob Margett, Glendora

· Congressman Buck McKeon, Santa Clarita

· Former California Republican Party Chairman Mike Schroeder, Corona del Mar

· Assemblyman Jim Silva, Huntington Beach

· Assemblywoman Audra Strickland, Moorpark

· State Senator Mark Wyland, Carlsbad

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What is the greatest about the California team so far is the focus on fiscal conservatism. Tony Strickland wrote a nice piece recently about Romney.

By Anonymous Anonymous, at April 11, 2007 at 1:26 PM  



Tuesday, April 10, 2007
posted by Justin Hart | 2:32 PM | permalink
So... we all know that New Hampshire is important when it comes to Primaries. I sometimes get emails asking... what's happening on the ground.

Well, we are testing out a new feature on MMM, an interactive Google map showing all kinds of details regard the Romney Campaign, where they've been, endorsements, fundraisers, headquarters and more. Take a look and give us your feedback

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The map didn't open up properly. At least, not for me.



The map didn't open up for me either, until I did a ctrl+click.

Pretty cool stuff! I like it.

Maybe another thing to add would be some more pictures of the places and people.)

Mitchell




posted by Justin Hart | 11:56 AM | permalink

Key Excerpts Of Governor Romney's Speech At The George Bush Presidential Library Center, College Station, Texas (As Prepared For Delivery):

Governor Romney: "We need leadership. We are fortunate today to have a President who loves America, who acts solely out of a desire to protect her and to promote liberty around the world. But I think most Americans look at Washington and are appalled at the divisiveness, the bitterness, the smallness, the disunity. Senator Arthur Vandenberg once famously opined that 'politics stops at the water's edge.' But last week, a committee chair said we have two foreign policies, one for each party. And then the Speaker of the House helped dignify a state sponsor of terror. At this time of war, her action stands as one of the most partisan, divisive, and ill-considered of any national leader in this decade."

Governor Romney: "Unity also means supporting our troops in Iraq and Afghanistan. The challenges there are immense. But President Bush and General Petraeus are implementing a new strategy for Iraq – and it deserves a chance to succeed. Running away from Iraq now would embolden our enemies, giving them the sanctuary they need to plan more devastating attacks against our country. In this difficult time, some in Congress are trying to deny our troops the resources they need. This is a grave error. We need to rally behind the effort, and support our men and women in uniform in this time of war."

Governor Romney: "I think many of us still fail to comprehend the extent of the threat posed by radical Islam, by Jihad. Understandably, we focus on Afghanistan and Iraq. Our men and women are dying there. We think in terms of countries, because we faced countries in last century's conflicts. But the Jihad is much broader than any one nation or nations. For radical Islam, there is one conflict and one goal – replacing all modern Islamic states with a caliphate, destroying America, and conquering the world."

Governor Romney's Four Changes Needed To Meet A New Generation Of Global Challenges:

First, We Need A Stronger Military. Our military suffered a dangerous decline under the Clinton Administration and has faced serious strains as we confront Jihadist threats following 9/11. To support our troops, we need to ensure we have the personnel and resources needed to maintain a strong America and safe world:

- We Must Increase The Size Of Our Military By 100,000 Troops.

- We Need To Dedicate At Least Four Percent Of Our Gross Domestic Product To Defense, Making Up For Critical Gaps In Our Military Modernization, Equipment, Personnel And Health Care Efforts.

- Investing In Our Military, We Need To Ensure Funds Are Used To Address Critical Needs And Support The Men And Women Of Our Armed Forces, Rather Than Political Or Contractor Interests.

Second, America Must Become Energy Independent. Our economic and military strength require that we end our strategic vulnerability to an oil shut-off by nations like Iran, Russia, and Venezuela, and that we address environmental concerns. To do this, Governor Romney has called for a bold and far-reaching research initiative - an Energy Revolution - to be our generation's equivalent of the Manhattan Project or the Moon mission. This will be a mission to create new, economic sources of clean energy.

Third, We Must Transform And Strengthen Our Civilian International Efforts To Meet A New Generation Of Challenges. Many of our civilian national security and foreign policy structures were created decades ago to confront Cold War threats. Building on the Goldwater-Nichols military reforms of the 1980s, we need to ensure that our civilian instruments of national power have the ability to build joint efforts among our civilian agencies and empower Regional Deputies with clear lines of authority, budgets and responsibility to develop and execute regional plans and strategies. We must also constantly challenge bureaucratic "group think" and revitalize our national security structures so we have the capabilities needed to meet 21st century challenges.

Fourth, We Need To Strengthen Old Partnerships And Alliances, And Inaugurate A New One, To Address The Threat Of Jihadism. The failures of efforts such as the United Nations Human Rights Council have given multilateralism a bad name. But America's strength is amplified when it is combined with the strength of other nations. We need to look to expand alliances such as NATO to face the new threat of radical Jihad and increase our homeland security.

- In The Struggle Against Jihadism, One Of The Greatest Challenges Is The Looming Demographic Crisis In The Broader Middle East Combined With Rising Unemployment. As President, Governor Romney will call together our Middle East allies and the major nations of the developed world to address these issues by establishing a Partnership for Hope and Prosperity. This Partnership would assemble the resources of all developed nations to assure that threatened Islamic states have public schools, micro credit and banking, the rule of law, human rights, basic health care, and competitive economic policies. Resources would be drawn from public and private institutions, and from volunteers and NGOs. Its policies would favor expansion of free trade and investment.

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posted by Justin Hart | 9:25 AM | permalink
I have no illusions. Rudy is has the national spotlight, McCain has the history, base, and moderates, and Thompson might be a threat. But if you think Romney has challenges here are two articles that highlight the problems on the other side of the fence.

Here's the illustrious J-POD in the New York Post: "YOU'RE BLOWING YOUR WHITE HOUSE RUN"

You combined two essential qualities of executive leadership. You had an overarching vision of a new New York City - a safer, cleaner and more prosperous place - and you were able to marshal the institutions of city government to help effect your aim.

And I haven't even yet mentioned your magnificent leadership on and after 9/11, which also combined both the visionary and the practical in a truly stirring way.

That combination of vision and competence is what even your enemies have come to show a grudging respect for.

So where is it now?

The vision seems to be there. But not the competence.


What was that word that pollsters use to describe Romney again? Oh yeah... COMPETANCE. Check.

To get the take on McCain we have to go the other side of the spectrum: E. J Dionne:

John McCain's 2000 campaign for president failed, but it was an unruly and joyous romp. His campaign this time feels quite different: Carefully planned, meticulously calculated -- and a tragedy.


I laugh when I see the note on McCain - because I recognize him as the real threat here. Jonah Goldberg sees the McCain light as well.

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I would love to see Mitt Romney as President Mitt Romney. Senator McCain has burned serious bridges with the conservative base, Giuliani hurt himself with Pro-lifers with his recent comments about abortion being a 'constitutional right', and Fred Thompson is currently Arthur until further notice.
Mitt has the intelligence, problem-solving ability, and speaking ability to articulate his ideas, but he needs to frame himself in a new light as a transformative figure. Although Senator Obama is a standard liberal ideologically, the mainstream media and many Americans are intrigued by his 'beyond politics as usual' rhetoric. If Romney can find a way to make himself a 'new thing' with all of his other attributes, then America and the Republican Party will be better for it. Let's hope he can find a way to do this. Paraphrasing Michael Barone at Regent University, 2008 is going to resemble 1992 in terms of the political atmosphere more than the standard left versus right issues that attract voters. Let's hope Mitt fills the vacuum in 2008, the same way an obscure governor from Arkansas did for two terms in the 1990's.




posted by jason | 7:49 AM | permalink
Romney is continuing his jump in the polls. This time a bump of 4% in the recent Rasmussen poll.



Date
Giul.
McCain
Thom.
Romn.
4/10
27%
16%
14%
12%
4/03
26%
16%
14%
8%
3/27
35%
15%
x
8%
3/20
33%
15%
x
10%
3/13
37%
16%
x
10%
3/06
34%
19%
x
9%
2/27
33%
17%
x
10%
2/20
33%
19%
x
8%
2/14
32%
18%
x
8%
2/06
27%
19%
x
9%
1/29
29%
19%
x
8%
1/23
30%
22%
x
10%
1/18
28%
20%
x
8%

This view is all of the Rassmusen polls since the beginning of the year. You can see a rise and fall of Giuliani (look for more of the fall, and Thompson's support looking unchanged. Romney goes up a full 4 points, the only one of the top four to rise this last week.

In the last few weeks here Romney has seen a bump in polls out of South Carolina and New Hampshire. He has done well in 2 straw polls in South Carolina: won one and second place in the other. I think we are seeing the beginning of the Summer time Romney surge. Kind of the foothills to the Himalayas.
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Actually, one needs to consider that this poll does not yet fully take into consideration any votes Rudy may have lost from his recent "Free Abortions" comments. The poll is taken over April 2-5, including only one day of polling after his comments were made.

Next week will be a better indication on whether or not Rudy has taken a hit - small, large, or not at all.

By Anonymous Anonymous, at April 10, 2007 at 4:46 PM  



posted by Justin Hart | 6:57 AM | permalink
Inside the Conference Center in Salt Lake City where Mormons just convened for their semi-annual Church-wide Conference




It's difficult for me to express my reaction to Mr. Woodard's article in yesterday's New York Times. Some have decried it as bigoted diatribe, noting that by replacing the word Mormon with Jew it comes across very poorly.

Certainly, there are parts that make me cringe but as a devout Mormon familiar with anti-Mormon rhetoric, Mr. Woodard's piece is pretty tame, by comparison.

I mean - if you want anti-Mormon rhetoric - I've got anti-Mormon rhetoric for you. Like the noted author who envisions the spires of the Washington D.C. Temple set there as nails to "crucify Christ anew" when he comes again. Or, since were on the subject of Mitt Romney, this gem from an obscure blog:
"Now gentle readers, for a time this will be my last post on Mormon Mitt Romney, the great hope of the false cult religion that desperately wants to convert the world so that they can fill them with their demons and take them to the lake of fire for an enternity, for awhile."
I'd give you the link but I really don't want to give this guy any traffic (heaven knows he needs it).

But there are some things we need to clear up about Mr. Woodard's piece... so here we go:

1) "Mormon clannishness" AND "A good Mormon is a busy Mormon"

I put these two together because they are intimately related. I know a lot of people in the blogosphere have taken offense at the "busy" caricature, but when I mentioned it to most Mormons - they laughed... because in many ways it's accurate. We are a busy folk.

Yes, Mormons are sometimes clannish but no more so than say full-blooded Italians or Greeks (wait - is that bigoted?).

The main reason that Mormons are perceived as "clannish" is that we spend a lot of time together.

Take this week for instance:
  • It started at 9:00 on Sunday morning. A singer in another "Ward" was fallen ill and my wife filled in for one of the solos.
  • Then we spent 3 hours at our Ward enjoying the Sabbath.
  • (Did I mention that we started the day with the kids collecting those eggs ala the Pagan rites of Easter? Wait, is that bigoted?).
  • Last night, we dutifully attened to our FHE (Family Home Evening) as the church recommends, spending Monday night with our families singing, reading scriptures and eating unseemly deserts.
  • This morning, Mormon High School kids all over the U.S. will wake up before 6:00 and head down to their local chapel for early morning Seminary where they are studying the New Testament this year.
  • Today (Tuesday) my nine year old will go after school and attend "Activities Day".
  • Tonight, my twelve year-old will go to "Young Women's activities" - planting flowers in a fellow Mormons back yard.
  • Thursday night my wife and I will attend some meetings to help plan for summer activities for the Church teenagers (we're building a replica of Moses' tabernacle in the wilderness)
  • Saturday I'll be preparing for my Sunday School lesson on John 5-6 about Christ as the "Bread of Life"
So... yes, we are busy. I don't take too much offense from this - but I view it as a bit of a slight.

2) "To many Americans, Mormonism is a church with the soul of a corporation."

Woodward is obviously taking his cues from the Ostlings and the 1997 Time article "Mormons, Inc". This is more silly than it is offensive.

The offensive part comes later when Woodward states: "Successful Mormon males can expect to be called, at some time in their lives, to assume full-time duties in the church’s missions, in its vast administrative offices in Salt Lake City or in one of many church-owned businesses."

First, it's flat wrong. In my large circle of Mormon friends there isn't a single person who has ever taken a job with some church-owned business.

I'm not even sure what he means!?

Occasionally I volunteer at the Church's canning facility in Maryland but I don't think that qualifies in his statement.

Do Mormons go on missions? Yes. The rest of it is humbug.

(The whole slight of "vast administrative offices" and "assume full-time duties" implies the offensive lock-step cult caricature.)

Lastly, the "soul of the corporation" phrase was manufactured by leftist critics who have left the church.

3) "Mormons like to hire other Mormons, and those who lose their jobs can count on the church networks to find them openings elsewhere."

Yes, shockingly enough the Church tries to take care of its members. The Mormon Church even has an extensive website (ProvidentLiving.org) to help anyone in their finances, find employment, and even with their physical health.

4) "That some voters still confuse the Latter-day Saints with fundamentalist Mormon sects that continue to practice polygamy and child marriage is another reason the candidate should take the time to set the record straight."

While I feel that Woodward is somehow dictating Romney strategy... he's probably right on this one.

5) "Any journalist who has covered the church knows that Mormons speak one way among themselves, another among outsiders."

I think this phrase is definately a slight. He's referring here to the way we portray doctrine to others. I think this is flatly unfair. If he has more than one example to cite I welcome it.

6) "There is no evidence that church authorities have tried to influence any of these public servants. "

Finally, a refreshing stance. I agree with you on this one. Thanks Kenneth.

In short, I can see how Hugh and Dean and others can be flatly offended by this approach. But most Mormons will tell you - "I've heard worse"

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For Southern Baptists, “personal savior” implies a specific born-again experience that is not required or expected of Mormons.

Yeah, read Alma 5 and tell me that again. Granted, there have been worse hack-jobs in the past, but it's tiring to see it so often from people who should know better.



That's funny you say, "But most Mormons will tell you - "I've heard worse." This is so very true--I was told much worse, and by my own grandparents. "You'll burn in hell...Joseph Smith was a Satanist..." You think of it, my grandparents have said it to me.

Yeah, it would be a whole lot nicer to see professionalism in a reporter instead of this, but unfortunately, I have seen worse.

Thanks for the great article!

Hava



I think you're right that "most Mormons will tell you - "I've heard worse". I served a mission in Kentucky and would definitely say that.

The problem is this article in the NYT was not aimed at "most Mormons" it was aimed at people who have never heard anything about the Church or have only heard the caricatures.

This is Woodard saying this is why I'm anti-Mormon, but couching it as "many Americans" or "a common perception" or advice to Romney. I think along with the Jewish questions, Hugh Hewitt should have asked Woodard if he'd write the same article about Islam (contemporary support for plural marriage and whole cities closed to non-members).

At least we don't have to worry about the old anti-Mormon "magic hat" distortion now that the left's last presidential candidate had a "magic hat" of his own.

twalsh




Monday, April 9, 2007
posted by jason | 6:22 PM | permalink
Results:

Romney: 36

Giuliani: 24

Gingrich: 18

F. Thompson: 14

McCain: 5

Huckabee: 2

Tancredo: 2

Hunter: 1

T. Thompson: 1

Romney is picking up steam in SC. He nearly tripled his polling there a few days ago, and won a student Republican straw poll a few weeks ago.
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posted by Justin Hart | 3:04 PM | permalink
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This has to do with the "mormon moment" article. As a Mormon myself I find that I am contantly having to explain different aspects of my faith. I'm always willing to explain and know that some will accept and move on and some will laugh or spit in my face. It comes with the territory. I believe that Gov. Romney is going to have to confront this issue wheither he wants to or not. What better place than an evangelical college. At least he will be abke to correct some of the things that were written in this article.

By Anonymous Anonymous, at April 9, 2007 at 6:40 PM  


I have been wondering lately whether Regents University Commencement would be the place for the religion speech.

By Anonymous Anonymous, at April 9, 2007 at 9:09 PM  



posted by Justin Hart | 11:41 AM | permalink
In business we learn: "Face the brutal facts" and "Know your competitor". So, here we go.

Far be it from me to disagree with Hugh Hewitt... (after all he's written the book on this one)... but I have to take issue with him here. I do this in the same spirit of the warning flags he raised about Zogby last week. As much as I would love to see the McCain campaign crash and burn... it just isn't going to happen.

Hugh has rightly documented the seemingly steady decline of the McCain campaign. Today he notes: "The Parrot is Dead":
Senator McCain may hang around through Iowa and New Hampshire, but there's nothing as over as Christmas and a front-runner's campaign gone flat.
No doubt the lackluster performance of McCain on many fronts (most notably in fundraising) has given the political community serious pause. But there are several aspects to this race to consider.

For example, take a look at a sample of the the endorsements McCain has garnered in the past two weeks:
Also consider:
  • His Iowa and NH HQs are almost complete
  • He still reigns pretty high in early primary polls
  • No major staff defections (plenty of heartache and confusion but no defections)
This is just a sample.

In my mind the ground game is all important. I believe the Romney campaign knows this and is banking on the notion that the last two folks standing will be Mitt and McCain.

Don't get me wrong... I would love to see McCain sputter and spit by the end of the year. But my gut tells me he's here to stay, even beyond NH and IA.

Here's a quick chart I put together to demonstrate the prowess of the ground game:
The chart below ranks the GOP candidates based on all the elements of a ground game (or, at least, all the elements we could think of). This is essentially a "ranking" or "scoring" chart showing the "tier" rank for each candidate..

The lower score (higher rank) shows serious ground game.

election primary ground game 2008 mccain romney

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posted by Justin Hart | 10:13 AM | permalink
1. IA – 17%, 3rd place behind McCain at just 21% now.
2. NH – 25% tied for 1st with McCain
3. SC –14%, moving up to third, Rudy at first with 26%
4. MI – 21%, 2nd

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posted by Justin Hart | 8:57 AM | permalink
The Washington Post has an excellent article today on Romney's inner circle. They have some quick pot-shots they take but for the most part this is great information.

As we noted last week about Spencer Zwick, Team Romney has a very distinct aura - a good one in our book.

* Beth Myers: The first among equals, Myers is Romney's campaign manager and closest aide. She was Romney's chief of staff during much of his term as governor, after having served a stint as a top adviser to Massachusetts Treasurer Joe Malone. Myers -- like many top GOP operatives in the '08 campaigns -- is an acolyte of Karl Rove, having served under him in the 1986 campaign of former Texas Gov. Bill Clements (R).

* Peter Flaherty: As director of Romney's outreach to conservatives, Flaherty may well hold the key to the governor's chances of winning the nomination. Prior to joining the campaign, Flaherty was Romney's deputy chief of staff in Boston. His background is in law, but Flaherty also served a stint at the movie production company Walden Media, which is run by his two brothers.

* Alex Castellanos: A well-regarded Republican media consultant, Castellanos has already been hard at work crafting Romney's image with a series of television ads aimed at introducing the governor to voters in early states like Iowa and New Hampshire. Castellanos comes to the campaign with a reputation for pointed (and effective) ad-making on behalf of a bevy of candidates, including President George W. Bush, former Gov. Jeb Bush (R-Fla.) and former Sen. Jesse Helms (R-N.C.).

* Jan van Lohuizen: If you don't know who van Lohuizen is, that's just how he likes it. One of the lowest-profile pollsters in politics, van Lohuizen is also one of the most highly regarded. He was a key member of the Bush polling team in 2004 and has had a hand in any number of major GOP victories, including victories by Govs. Charlie Crist (R-Fla.) and Arnold Schwarzenegger's (R-Calif.) last November.

* Alex Gage: Microtargeting -- the process of collecting vast amounts of information on potential voters and then using the gathered data to tailor messages to them -- became all the rage in 2004 after President Bush found thousands of new supporters using it. And Gage, the founder of TargetPoint Consulting, is widely seen as a microtargeting guru. Bush paid $3 million to Gage's firm in 2004 and reaped huge rewards; Romney hopes to follow that blueprint in '08.

* Spencer Zwick: No one (besides Romney) deserves more credit for the candidate's $21 million first-quarter fundraising haul than Zwick. A wunderkind in his late 20s, Zwick is Romney's national finance director and a past deputy chief of staff in Romney gubernatorial office. Zwick, who met Romney while he was a student at Brigham Young University, enjoys such a close personal relationship with the candidate that he is often referred to as Romney's sixth son, according to the New York Times. (If you're a subscriber to National Journal, check out Shira Toeplitz's recent profile of Zwick.)

* Carl Forti: Forti, the campaign's political director, is a newcomer to Romney's universe, having spent the last several cycles as communications director at the National Republican Congressional Committee. Forti also headed up the NRCC's independent expenditure program -- directing tens of millions of dollars in television and radio ads as well as direct mail into districts across the country.

* Matt Rhoades: Rhoades isn't as well-known to the wider world as some of his counterparts on other campaigns, but he is regarded very highly by political professionals. Rhoades served as research director and deputy communications director at the Republican National Committee in the 2006 cycle and research director for the Bush-Cheney reelection campaign in 2004. Rhoades also enjoys a friendly relationship with Matt Drudge -- founder of the Drudge Report -- an indispensable connection in the modern "freak show" world of politics.

* Kevin Madden: The telegenic Madden was a staple of Capitol Hill in recent years as the public face for former Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-Texas) and current Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio). Madden has brought his friendly demeanor to Romney's operation, sending out a daily rundown of key clips and appearances by the former governor. Don't let the smile fool you though -- Madden is a New York native not unfamiliar with the rough and tumble of politics.

* Barbara Comstock: Comstock is a household name inside the Beltway as a former head of the Justice Department's Office of Public Affairs and research director at the Republican National Committee. Comstock rose to prominence as a master of the art of opposition research; in a 2001 profile of Comstock, Post reporter John Mintz wrote that Comstock had "done more than any other GOP operative to skewer Bill Clinton, Al Gore and their congressional allies."

* Eric Fehrnstrom: Fehrnstrom, as Romney's traveling press secretary, probably spends more time with the candidate than any other member of the Inner Circle. Prior to joining the campaign, Fehrnstrom was Romney's gubernatorial spokesman and deputy campaign manager for Romney's 2002 governor's race. Fehrnstrom, like Myers, has ties to former state Treasurer Joe Malone, for whom he served as a press fla

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posted by Justin Hart | 8:29 AM | permalink
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Sunday, April 8, 2007
posted by jason | 9:12 PM | permalink
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posted by jason | 3:39 PM | permalink
Fox News released a poll out for the 2008 primaries in South Carolina.



Rudy Giuliam26
John McCain25
Mitt Romney14
(Newt Gingrich- vol.)5
Sam Brownback2
Mike Huckabee2
(Fred Thompson- vol.)2
Tommy Thompson2
Jim Gilmore1
Duncan Hunter1
Ron Paul1
TomTancredo1
(Chuck Hagel- vol.)-
Other1
Don’t Knoe16


I am assuming those who's names are in parenthesis were volunteered, not sure though.

A huge jump for Romney!! The latest polling for South Carolina I found at RCP. Which was from February where Romney was at 5% in the latest ARG poll.

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It appears that, since Gingrich and Thompson are not official candidates, that would be the reason for the parenthesis. Mitt Romney's comment on Thompson on Fox (word association) was good. He said "Fred who?"

By Anonymous Anonymous, at April 8, 2007 at 7:35 PM  


Even though Mitt is at 14%, out of all the polls this is most impressive and encouraging. It shows he can get traction in the South! I would be delighted with this poll, especially at this early juncture! Wow, maybe Mitt CAN take it?!! This would be proof of that possibility. Amazing!!!

--nowandlater

By Anonymous Anonymous, at April 9, 2007 at 12:32 AM  


Clark's comment above is wrong and should be corrected. Mitt Romney was very respectful of Fred Thompson.

He actually said, "Rosie WHO?"

By Anonymous Anonymous, at April 9, 2007 at 8:24 AM  



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