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Friday, November 2, 2007
posted by Jeff Fuller | 10:19 PM | permalink
The new article "Mitt Romney's Defining Moment" in Time, is worth a read. It revisits Romney's saga of Healthcare reform in MA.

This brings back a bit of nostalgia for me. I recall, in April 2006, when the passage of this plan hit the news. That's when I really started paying attention to Romney. As a physician, I've struggled with the day-to-day problem of "the uninsured" but have always cringed at the "solution", according to liberals, of a single-payer government healthcare system (Heck . . . Medicare and Medicaid are bad enough!) I studied the plan and studied up on Romney over the next couple of weeks. I was so impressed by the plan, his policy stances, his record of accomplishment, and his communication skills that I quickly felt a desire to aid him in his goal of becoming POTUS. To make a long story short, I decided that I could contribute to that cause by creating a blogsite (Iowans for Romney) to satisfy that desire while still keeping my "day job." Many of my first blog entries (here, here, here, and here) dealt with this plan (and that it WAS NOT socialized medicine).

It's a pretty balanced article with quite a few MSM "zingers" (How this plan is like Hillary's, How Romney doesn't stump about the plan much, How he doesn't support such a plan nationally, etc . . .) but I'll give you the "good parts" version.

if you ask him how he did it, as I did during an Iowa campaign swing, Romney becomes effusive. It may be that this tale from Massachusetts reveals what kind of President Romney could be. "He was incredibly impressive, with his intellect, his ability," says MIT economics professor Jonathan Gruber, a Democrat who advised Romney and who has since had a hand in the Massachusetts-style health-care plans put forward this year by Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards. "If there is anything that qualifies him to be President of the United States, it is his leadership on this issue."


Not bad praise from a Democrat advising other campaigns, eh?

The more the Governor thought about health care, the more intrigued he became by the idea of making it work better.

That whiff of a challenge was reinforced by the stories Romney heard as he traveled the state. After talking to a jeweler in North Andover, a man about his age, Romney remembers thinking, "Gosh, he's 55. He could have a heart attack. He could get cancer. He's got his own business, but he doesn't have health insurance? How can this be?"

So Romney started asking for ideas from his aides, many of whom--especially his political advisers--thought he should just drop it. "It was pooh-poohed by everybody," he says. "I am obstinate. I kept on drawing these squares: Well, if you have this number of people, you take that money, you move it there, couldn't that work? Let's do the math." State HHS secretary Ron Preston kept coming back to the one alternative Romney said he wouldn't accept: Dukakis' approach of requiring employers to either cover their workers or pay a hefty fee. "We didn't make as much progress as I wanted to," Romney says now. So the former management consultant did what he might have recommended to any CEO: he got a new team, showing Preston the door and giving the job to his policy director, former investment banker Tim Murphy. "The thing about Mitt," says Murphy, "is he wants to focus on the analysis."

When they considered the situation as if it were a business-school case study, some simple steps became clear, like getting the word out to the 106,000 Massachusetts citizens who were eligible for Medicaid but didn't seem to know it. Yet they also found something surprising when Romney began looking at who, precisely, the uninsured were in Massachusetts. Everyone expected the typical profile to be that of a single mother just scraping by or maybe someone with chronic illness--not exactly ideal customers for insurers. Instead, nearly the opposite was true. "It turned out they were largely single males, and they were working," Romney recalls. "They were eminently insurable. It's funny how data opens up new insight."

That was the bit of analysis that changed everything. Gruber ran the numbers at MIT: universal coverage would be expensive, but so would any half-measure. Romney could simply expand the existing system and, by doing so, cover about one-third more people. Or he could cover everyone by including an "individual mandate," a controversial measure requiring people to buy insurance and offering subsidies to those who couldn't afford it. The price tag would be about one-third higher. "I began by saying, Well, maybe we could help half the people that don't have insurance, maybe we could help a third of the people, and ultimately it became, You know what? We could actually get everybody insured!" Romney recalls.

In November 2004, nearly two years after his meeting with Stemberg, Romney was finally ready to go public with the beginnings of a plan. As it evolved, it became a proposal to achieve an end that liberals had long dreamed of, but through conservative means: creating more competition in the private-insurance marketplace and insisting that Massachusetts citizens take personal responsibility for their own coverage. "From the minute you heard him articulate it, you knew this was a new concept in American health-care policy," says Robert Blendon, a Harvard University professor of health policy. "It was a very different way of talking about coverage, and he was very articulate in framing it."


Everyone repeat after me: "EXECUTIVE COMPETENCE"


"Before long, Romney was in Kennedy's office in Washington, taking his PowerPoint slides with him. "Had Senator Kennedy said, 'This is a lousy idea, and I don't want anything to do with it,' I would have been back at square one," he admits. Kennedy was sold, and both men turned to the question of how to pay for the plan.


The author gives way too much credit to Kennedy in that last sentence . . . because Teddy wasn't a key figure in the crafting of the legislation nor in the "nuts and bolts" of making it economically viable. Kennedy, however, did see the novelty of the plan (and, I'm sure, was sick of all of his and other liberal healthcare plans never making the grade with the American people) . . . and he did have a key role in helping the plan not get stalled out in the legislature.

That outcome was far from certain. Romney and his PowerPoint traveled from one end of Massachusetts to the other. But as a Republican, Romney had very little leverage with the legislature, where the GOP's representation was so small it was less a minority than a cult. What's more, the senate and the house had very different ideas of what they wanted to do. As the two chambers squabbled, the Medicaid money was in danger of slipping away.

On a Sunday morning in February 2006, Romney personally taped handwritten notes to the doors of senate president Robert Travaglini and house speaker Salvatore DiMasi, begging them not to let this opportunity die. The speaker, for one, wasn't impressed. "A cheap publicity stunt," DiMasi says. Recognizing the limits of his own influence, Romney turned to Kennedy once again. "I asked for his help on certain legislators: 'Could you give a call on this one?'" Romney says. On March 22, 2006, Kennedy did more than that. He went to the floor of both the house and the senate on Beacon Hill and spoke in very personal terms about the battles with cancer his son and daughter had faced. "This whole issue in terms of universal and comprehensive care has always burned in my soul," Kennedy said. The Federal Government had failed the country on health care, he told the politicians , but "Massachusetts has a chance to do something about it."

The bill that emerged from the legislature two weeks later was different in many respects from what Romney had initially proposed. It increased reimbursement for hospitals, which Romney liked, but added more people to the Medicaid rolls, which he didn't. There were far too many requirements placed on insurance companies for Romney's tastes, and he used his line-item veto on the bill's stipulation that employers who don't cover their workers pay $295 per employee each year into a fund to subsidize coverage. The lawmakers easily overrode it . . .


Near the end of the article . . .

Everyone around Romney had assumed this achievement would be a centerpiece of his presidential campaign, showcasing the data-driven, goal-oriented, utterly pragmatic side of Romney. But that side of him has emerged only rarely on the 2008 trail. Instead, he rarely discusses the details of his Massachusetts plan and certainly doesn't tout his partnership with Kennedy. As a presidential candidate, he cautiously adheres to by-the-book Republican dogma of giving individual states leeway in the form of tax breaks to design their own reforms.


Rarely emerged? I guess they've been reading the MSM reports more than they've been around campaigning with Mitt. Even in the last debate in FL he was very clear to not distance himself with this plan nor give the Democratic MA Legislature all the credit for it.



Jeff Fuller
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posted by Kyle Hampton | 12:50 PM | permalink
John Edwards is a great attack dog. He just happens to be fighting for the wrong side. I've got to hand it to him, though, on this ad about Hillary's debate performance:


Jim Geraghty also makes this point about the difference between Hillary's and Mitt's responses after taking fire at the debates:

Thought that popped in my head... could you imagine if Mitt Romney played the 'Mormon card' the way Team Hillary has played the 'gender card' in the aftermath of the debate?

It's unthinkable. He'd be mocked and ridiculed mercilessly as a guy who couldn't handle a real debate.

Mitt Romney gets slammed from all sides in the debates, particularly the most recent one, and he knows why: He's leading in Iowa and New Hampshire (and close in South Carolina); he's the guy Rudy needs to beat someplace early, he's the guy Fred needs to falter, the guy Huckabee needs to catch up with, the guy McCain wants to see knocked out. Congratulations, you matter now; this means it's time to duck, brace for impact, and demonstrate an ability to get up off the mat.

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2 Comments:


I don't want to derail Mrs. Clinton too early - I WANT her to be the nominee. She will be easy for Mitt to defeat.



I would be cringing like crazy if Senator Clinton were my witness on the witness stand. On the other hand, I would love to play with her on cross examination.




posted by Justin Hart | 8:54 AM | permalink

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AWESOME!!! Even though Ms. Hillary is going to file a complaint with the FCC 'cause he used the word "intern" which is a four letter word (in Arkansas that is, schools ranked what around 48th in the nation?)



This is a killler!!!!! I like it - it's the best one thus far. Great job Team Romney!



Just imagine if you were about to start a major business nationally. Two applicants applied: one with Hillary's resume and one with Mitt's. Which one would you choose? This is a slam dunk for Romney!



It is also good that while both Romney and Giuliani have been trying to focus voters into thinking of them as the candidate to beat Clinton, Romney is the first on the airwaves. I am really interested to see what a Giuliani media campaign is going to look like.




posted by Jeff Fuller | 1:53 AM | permalink
Where they've gotten to know Romney . . . they like Romney.

Want some proof?

The Real Clear Politics AVERAGES of recent polls for all the early states show Romney in the lead!!!



South Carolina . . . up by 0.3%
Michigan . . . up by 5.2%
New Hampshire . . . up by 8.0%
IOWA . . . up by 13.5%. I, of course, take personal credit for this since Iowans for Romney is such a powerful and influential blogsite :)

Jeff Fuller
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2 Comments:


While I appreciate the enthusiasm, some of these numbers are seriously flawed. For example, the recent SC ARG poll shows Romney beating Fred Thompson by 19 points... This I find laughable, and you guys probably do, too. I find much more reasonable the idea that the three (Romney, Giuliani, and Thompson) are tightly bunched at the top. Likewise, the lead in Michigan is swayed by an outlier poll (done by ARG, of course) showing Romney at 39% while he doesn't get more than 20% in a poll more recent than the end of August.

I like the numbers, but as Mark Twain (or Samuel Clemens) said, "There are lies, there are damn lies, and there are statistics!" Be fair.



The great thing, Peter, is that this is an average done by RCP. Are there nit-picky things that could be said about any individual poll, low or high? Yes, but that's why they average them.




posted by Jeff Fuller | 1:24 AM | permalink
MattC (formerly known as HeavyM) posted the following over at Race42008 . . . I'm surprised that it hasn't gotten more play (Tagg mentioned it at the FiveBrothersBlog).

Here’s what Mitt’s son Tagg said at the ND dinner:

“Personally, I think the best way to beat Hillary Clinton is not to water down our values, or to try to act more like Hillary Clinton, or try to blur the distinction between Republicans and Democrats. I think we need a strong Republican.”

In stark contrast, here’s what Kevin Cramer, spokesman for Giuliani said after Tagg’s speech:

“We are here to choose a candidate who can win next November. It does us no good to stand on our beautiful, wonderful principles, and lose to Hillary Clinton.

Courtesy of the Giuliani campaign themselves, you now have a very clear choice between two political philosophies that couldn’t be more diametrically opposed.


Well said MattC!

Jeff Fuller
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Thursday, November 1, 2007
posted by Justin Hart | 6:24 PM | permalink

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Well, it sounds as if Mike Pence is endorsing the Romney vision for America. Would be nice to get Pence on board.




posted by Justin Hart | 12:54 PM | permalink
Michael Arrington, founder of Tech Crunch, interviewed Mitt Romney recently. Tech Crunch is to technology what the Drudge Report is to politics.

Here are some choice excerpts:
MA: ... The US technology industry, of course, has been a world leader. And a lot of the growth has been through international markets, particularly over the last ten to twenty years. What would you do as president to advance these efforts?

MR: Well, first it’s important to communicate as you do to your audience that the trade and opening markets to American goods is essential. The only way America is going to remain the world’s superpower is if we can compete globally, so I want to open more markets to our goods and I will negotiate with other nations to do so. At the same time I want to make sure that our trading with other nations is done on a fair basis, and when a nation like China does not honor our intellectual property rights then we’re going to have to get serious with our Chinese friends and say guys you just can’t do that or you’re going to suffer consequences in our markets. So we’re going to have to fight to make sure that our products are protected and our technology is protected but also to not close down foreign markets, open them up, we can compete around the world.

This is one of the things that attracted me to Mitt Romney, he knows technology and he knows politics and he knows where the two meet. Next, onto Internet taxes:
MA: Ok, great. Let’s jump into internet taxes, some news today on that actually. The 1998 Internet Tax Freedom Act bars federal state and local governments from taxing internet access or imposing discriminatory internet only taxes. Things like bit taxes, bandwidth taxes, email taxes. It doesn’t of course prohibit states from collecting sales taxes on things like e-commerce. It was twice extended by Congress and actually was set to expire this Thursday, but last week the Senate voted to extend the ban and then this morning the house voted 402-0 to approve the bill as well for a 7 year extension. I’d just like to get your position on internet only taxes.

MR: I think the indication of the house vote indicates that most American’s are of the point of view that Internet only taxes of the type you describe are not something we want to see. I have a specific position on that issue, but I do not want to see internet only taxes as you described them or access fees or email charges and so forth. We do enough taxing in this country and let’s not add more taxes. I’d rather see the tax for innovation reduced rather than expanded.

Lastly, the real tech question that matters. Promise to our readers here: I will make Mitt a Mac convert yet!
MA: I guess that brings us to the most important question I have to ask you, which is…Governor Romney, Mac or PC?

MR: I have a PC. My sons have a Mac and swear by it, but I have a couple PC’s.

MA: So one of your sons is on Mac, or most of them are?

MR: 3 out of the 5 boys I believe are on Macs, and they swear by them, but I’m a creature of habit, I’ve got my PC.

MA: I’ve got to say I’m slightly disappointed and that’s going to hurt you in Silicon Valley (laughs), but at least it will help you in Texas where Dell is. Do you have an iPod?

MR: I do.

MA: Of course you have an IPod! What’s on it? What are you listening to right now, what sort of albums have you downloaded or listened to?

MR: What I typically download is country music as well as 1960’s music. I’m a baby boomer, so the Beatles and the Stones and some of the old groups from the 1960’s are my favorites, I listen to them and I listen to country. I might have some inspirational music as well, but those are the highlights for me.

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posted by Kyle Hampton | 10:53 AM | permalink
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posted by Justin Hart | 9:17 AM | permalink
Also, Mitt was on the Laura Ingraham Show:

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Wednesday, October 31, 2007
posted by jason | 2:09 PM | permalink
From David Brody:

Mitt Romney's campaign tells The Brody File that Bill Wichterman, who used to do conservative and religious outreach for Fred Thompson's campaign, has joined Team Romney. This is a nice "get." He'll be a part of the Faith and Values steering committee.

Bill Wichterman left the Thompson campaign because Thompson DOES NOT support the federal marriage amendment. At least the version that is on the table now. Mitt Romney does support it. Wichterman liked that fit. Who can blame him?

This is a guy who has been big on the federal marriage amendment for years. When Bill Frist was trying to push the amendment through the Senate, it was Wichterman who was leading the charge by getting social conservative groups organized and mobilized. Expect him to be a big boost for the Romney campaign when it comes to the marriage issue. His depth of knowledge here is masterful.
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posted by jason | 8:05 AM | permalink
I was reading Yepsen's article on how Huckabee could very well win Iowa. I thought for certain a writer such as Yepsen would offer some concrete evidence to explain the assertion that Huckabee could some how unseat Mitt for the top spot in Iowa. Instead we got a litany of folksy stylistic points: Huck's guitar playing abilities, humorous sense of speaking prose and the fact he received a standing ovation at the recent Reagen day dinner. It almost seemed a dumbing down of the Iowa electorate by Yepsen.


Huckabee's rise has been heralded by some as the dark horse coming to town. After the let down you and I call Fred, some are ready for another Dark horse. The MSM is claiming Huckabee status as true contender because "Hey, if we can split the SoCon vote all the better." Rudy lovers seem to be playing the same game because "Hey, if we can split the SoCon vote all the better." Makes one feel like a bit of a tool at the end of the day.

Anyway, with this in mind I decided to dig a little a deeper in the numbers and find out just how fast Huckabee's numbers are really growing. The answer? A little but not really that much.

First lets look at the National Numbers. Huckabee is gaining ground, around 1.5-2% per month. This chart (as are all others) is based upon the RCP numbers.



(V.V. stands for Values Voters Conference. I added this into the chart since many would argue that is were the Huckabee bounce would stem from.)

Let's look at that chart with Giuliani added:




What I find interesting here is that Giuliani's numbers month to month, directly mirror Romney's, yet no grief for Giuliani from the Rudy lovers and MSM. Granted Huckabee can move over Romney quicker in National numbers.

Now lets turn our eyes to the state of Iowa, where many claim Romney needs to win- which I believe he will quite handily.



What is interesting is the fact that when averaged, Romney actually enjoys the larger bounce after the Values Voters summit. Huckabee's rate of growth has actually slowed since then:




Huckabee's loss of momentum could easily be attributed to weakness on immigration and economic factors, despite strong SoCon credentials. Some say no, but these two items rate high for to Iowa voters. Lets look at the recent University Iowa Poll. In order of importance for likely Republican Caucus goers, the most important issues to Iowa voters are:

  1. Terrorism: 21.4%

  2. Economy 15.8%

  3. Iraq War 15.5%

  4. Immigration 13.5%

  5. Health Care 9.5%

  6. Abortion 7.2%

  7. Education 4.0%

  8. Energy Policy 2.9%

  9. Gay Marriage 2.9%

  10. Agriculture Policy 1.4%

  11. Enviroment/Global Warming 1.1%



The number 2 and 4 important items are Huckabee's two greatest weaknesses. Abortion, Huck's strength is number 6. Romney's strengths are 2,4,5 and 8. Gay marriage will be equal, since Huck has always been against it, and Romney has fought it very adamantly- and always stood against it. When you add to Hucks weaknesses on key Iowa issues a lack of serious funding and formal ground organization I fail to see how Huck can capitalize on his strengths in a manner that will cause a huge upswing for him in Iowa.

Going back to the "Changes in Averages Iowa" chart we can see that Huck's rise in the all important early state is dynamically soft. If we average the trends I note in the chart for both Huckabee and Romney, assume the trends will remain static and then project those till January this is how the race will shape:



Now this isn't my prediction, this is a projection based upon current post V.V. trends continuing between Huckabee and Romney in Iowa. This projection would make for a strong a second for Huckabee, but not much more. A strong second place would leave Huckabee out of money and praying for a miracle in South Carolina. anything less and he is done. Huck could end up really making a huge upswing, sometime in between now and January. But with the holidays diverting peoples attention and money, it's tough to see how it will be done. If he hasn't made the leap by Thanksgiving he has no chance at number one in Iowa, and will be relegated to the club of "so close but so far" with a chair next to Brownback.

So in summation, is Huckabee a real threat to Romney's goals? A small one. On a scale of 1-10, 1 being Duncan Hunter and 10 being Rudy Giuliani, he's probably a four with Thompson a three and Ron Paul a two.
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Hugh Hewitt interviewed Huckabee on his radio show today. Many of his listeners were not impressed.

www.hughhewitt.com




posted by Justin Hart | 7:12 AM | permalink
Actually, Mitt is doing just fine. Its time for US to get SCARY for MITT.

Today is the last day of October. There are less than 75 days until the election. We need to keep pushing.

We ask one thing today: Donate $10 for Mitt. Then pass this message on! It takes two minutes to donate... Imagine if everyone who got this message donated $10 to Mitt today. Send it far and wide!

(also... see our special "NIGHT OF THE LIVING DEMOCRATS VIDEO")

http://mymanmitt.com/redesign/halloween_small.jpg

Thanks for David C for this pic:


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Tuesday, October 30, 2007
posted by Justin Hart | 1:57 PM | permalink
In previous months we used to spend hours at MyManMitt calculating all of the endorsements that a candidate picks up. Thank goodness we can give this job up to someone else now!

Chris Cillizza reports on the new feature at WashingtonPost.com logging the endorsements of State Legislators.

Here are the grunt numbers for the GOP side of things in the early primaries (they gave us the numbers - we built the chart)


Here are the numbers:


Endorsements are local events and as we get closer to the election we will probably see a lot of these names chiming in for another plug for their candidate. Who knows -- the serious SC edge for McCain might make him a contender again :)

Cillizza has this to say about endorsements:
Support from elected officials in Iowa, New Hampshire etc. is crucial -- not only does each member bring a political power base of his or her own, but they also serve as important validators for their preferred candidate within a community they know (and knows them) best.

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posted by Justin Hart | 11:13 AM | permalink
A lot of people don't like ARG polls. They've had problems in the past. But the trends in favor of Romney are undeniable:

American Research Group Republican Iowa Caucus

  • Romney - 27% (22)
  • Huckabee - 19% (4)
  • Giuliani - 16% (21)
  • McCain - 14% (11)
  • Thompson - 8% (16)
  • Tancredo - 2% (1)
  • Paul - 1% (2)
  • All others - less than 1%

Survey was conducted Oct 26-29 of 600 likely Republican caucus goers, and has a 4% MoE. Numbers in parentheses are from their Sept poll.

American Research Group New Hampshire Republican Primary

  • Romney - 30% (24)
  • Giuliani - 23% (20)
  • McCain - 17% (20)
  • Huckabee - 7% (3)
  • Thompson - 5% (8)
  • All Others - 1% or less

Survey was conducted Oct 26-29 of 600 likely Republican primary voters and has a 4% MoE. Numbers in parentheses are from the Sept poll.

American Research Group South Carolina GOP Primary

  • Romney - 29% (26)
  • Giuliani - 23% (23)
  • McCain - 13% (15)
  • Thompson - 10% (10)
  • Huckabee - 5% (1)
  • Paul - 4% (2)
  • Hunter - 2% (1)
  • All others - 1% or less

Survey was conducted Oct 26-29 of 600 likely Republican primary voters and has a 4% MoE. Numbers in parentheses are from the Sept poll.

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posted by Justin Hart | 10:07 AM | permalink

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I was listening to Rush this morning and he mentioned Romney's comment about the US Govt not being the place for an intern. You could tell he really loved it. He also said that the Dems are whining about it and saying it's not nice for Mitt to be attacking Hillary.



I was listening to Rush this morning and he mentioned Romney's comment about the US Govt not being the place for an intern. You could tell he really loved it. He also said that the Dems are whining about it and saying it's not nice for Mitt to be attacking Hillary.




posted by Justin Hart | 7:34 AM | permalink
Dave Keene, chairman of the American Conservative Union tells Newsmax that he considers Romney the best positioned to win:
"Romney's doing it the right way, in my view," Keene says over lunch at the Palm. "My view's colored by history, and these other guys seem to be betting that history doesn't matter, and I'm not sure that's true. If you win the first contest, and they're close enough to the second contest, you get an enormous boost. And the idea that the onrush of big primaries makes those early contests unimportant may be 180 degrees wrong."
The ACU has been around for awhile here in DC. They run CPAC and put out one of the most comprehensive congressional ratings directories.

Keene has also been a major figure at the NRA and looks to take the reins there in the next few years.

He notes this about the polls:
"If you assume for a moment that the propaganda from the Romney camp is accurate and the polls are right, he is in fact in a position that he could conceivably win Iowa, New Hampshire and then South Carolina. In that case, all these national polls showing him behind are completely irrelevant."
Here's Keene on the Romney ground game:
"But when you start talking to people out there, you find that while the other candidates are sort of running a national media campaigns, Romney's on the ground and organizing. That gives him a tremendous opportunity, particularly against Rudy."

...

"It's hard to see Rudy pulling it off, unless he organized as well as Romney, and I don't see him doing that," Keene says. As a result, "Romney's in the best position to get ahead when the contest actually starts. Giuliani has got his poll lead, but I don't know what else he has."
Keene had this to say about Thompson:
"Thompson could get back in it if he gets his act together," Keene says. On the other hand, the idea of a resurgence for John McCain is totally unlikely, he says. "McCain is just coming up to a level of support he had in the past," Keene says. "He can't get beyond that."
Lastly, Keene had some interesting things to say about the race against Hillary:
"Given the current state of attitudes about President Bush and the Republicans, Hillary ought to be 15 to 20 points ahead," Keene says. "The fact that she's just four or five points ahead and is hovering mostly below 50 percentage points in the polls means she's in deep trouble. She can win, but it's not going to be easy for her. And that means that the Republican nomination is worth a lot more than what the common wisdom would suggest."

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Wow! Great find. Gregg's endorsement helps solidify his lead in NH which hopefully will carry him through SC. If that occurs Mitt will take over the number one spot.




Monday, October 29, 2007
posted by Kyle Hampton | 11:48 AM | permalink
Romney's up big time.

Romney 36 (+9 vs. Aug. 5 poll)
Giuliani 13 (+2)
Huckabee 13 (+10)
Thompson 11 (+8)
McCain 6 (+3)

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I like that news, however, Romney's national numbers are going down. I know national numbers aren't part of his strategy, but he's standing at a dismal 7%, that's within the margin of error of Mike Huckabee.



Anonymous, fortunately, national polls are worthless. You see, most of the primary voters do not study the candidates in depth until anywhere from 2 weeks to a couple of days before their own primaries. As a proof of this, the Pew Report did a survey in September and 70% of the registered Republicans cannot identify who the solo pro-choice Republican candidate is. I am not saying the abortion issue matters. I am saying that the Rudy has been hammered by media about how he is a pro-choicer, and about the likely of a party splint, but yet, they do not know it was him! Anyway, at this time of the game, it is more of feeling-game, which name you feel is right (try to watch the TV game shows sometimes to get an idea of what I am talking about). So, again, national polls is just that, the "TV game show" feeling, rather than who you would actually vote for, making it rather worthless.




posted by Justin Hart | 10:51 AM | permalink
Please note these two items:
  • No GOP candidate has ever lost New Hampshire and Iowa and gone on to win the primary nomination.
  • No GOP candidate has ever won both of these states in a primary election.
With Romney's lead in Iowa dropping jaws across the political spectrum (one recent poll has him up on Rudy by 23% pts) does the Gregg endorsement seal the deal in New Hampshire?

First, Gregg is very respected in the New Hampshire GOP with an 82% approval rate among Republicans.

Second, the Gregg family has deep roots in New Hampshire. His father Hugh Gregg served as Governor in the 50s. Judd was elected to Congress in 1980 and served 4 terms before winning the race for governor in 1988 and then winning his current Senate seat in 1993. He has been re-elected twice now, most recently in 2004

Second, Gregg had previously indicated that he would not be endorsing anyone until the primary. Today, he said: "never thought I’d endorse a governor of Massachusetts for anything, but, I never though the Red Sox would win the World Series twice in my lifetime, either."

In short, these type of endorsements are seriously prized in the political world. And if the endorsement happens to be in New Hampshire...

One quick question: Gregg indicated that he has “tremendous respect for John McCain and although I don’t know Rudy Giuliani, I respect what he’s done.”

Did Rudy not even approach Gregg? Or meet with him?

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posted by jason | 9:34 AM | permalink
"I am proud to stand alongside Governor Romney as he campaigns to build a stronger America. For months, the people of New Hampshire have had the opportunity to meet Governor Romney all over the state and listen to his ideas for bringing change to Washington. Mitt Romney embodies New Hampshire's values – values that stress government living within its means, lower taxes, a stronger military and stronger families," said Senator Gregg. "Governor Romney is the strong leader we need to lead America forward. He has the experience, vision and values needed to be our next President."
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Sunday, October 28, 2007
posted by Jeff Fuller | 1:39 AM | permalink
I responded to Kyle's "Huck's Missing Leg" blog entry below with the following comment (which I've expanded and added links):

Who said Huckabee is only missing one leg of the stool?

Sure, he does offer a solid "strong families" leg to the stool as a faithful social conservative . . .

Sure, he's the weakest GOP candidate on fiscal issues and therefore has a non-existent "strong economy" leg to his stool.

But we can't give him a pass on leg #3 "strong defense" . . . now I'm sure he doesn't want a weaker and less potent military (though he does seem to be a little off on his foreign policy.) But also a sizable part of the "strong defense" leg is issues such as being tough on crime and tough on immigration. On these issue, Huckabee is laughable as a GOP candidate. He's been reluctant to openly support the death penalty, he granted many pardons to criminals, and (and this will be the deal breaker for most social conservatives) he has a horrible record on immigration (here, here, and here) being about as pro-amnesty as you can be.

Looks like Mike's stool is actually only a pogo-stick . . . he may bounce around and attract some attention, but there is no solid foundation for his campaign.

P.S. Here are a few paragraphs shedding some light on Huck's crime/immigration record:
By far, Huckabee's most glaring mistake goes by the name of Wayne DuMond, a paroled rapist who murdered a woman after being released. DuMond's story is Southern Gothic, the Dukes of Hazzard meets John Grisham. He was a Vietnam veteran with a violent past and six children. In 1984, he was accused of raping a high school student in Forrest City, Ark., a town named for a founder of the Ku Klux Klan. The student happened to be a distant cousin of then-Gov. Bill Clinton, and the daughter of an influential local mortician. While DuMond was awaiting trial, two men broke into his home, hogtied and castrated him. The local sheriff, Coolidge Conlee, later displayed the testicles, floating in formaldehyde, for visitors to his office.

A mangled DuMond was eventually sentenced to life in prison, without the possibility of parole. But the distant Clinton affiliation soon turned his case into a cause. Right-wing radio hosts and columnists decried the severe sentence. They raised questions about the lack of DNA evidence, and railed against the small-town justice system, which never prosecuted DuMond's attackers. During the 1992 presidential campaign, while Clinton was traveling out of state, Tucker commuted DuMond's sentence to allow for the possibility of parole. When Huckabee became governor, he publicly announced that he intended to commute DuMond's sentence to time served. "My desire is that you be released from prison," he wrote DuMond in a letter. Before Huckabee signed any papers, the state parole board approved the prisoner's release. Two years later, DuMond murdered a woman in Missouri and later died in jail.

The case presents Huckabee with a clear problem, along the lines of Willie Horton, the furloughed rapist who helped sink the 1988 campaign of Democratic candidate Michael Dukakis. The attack ad almost writes itself: Huckabee, egged on by right-wingers, worked to free a rapist who murdered again. When I bring up the issue, the former Baptist minister becomes defensive and tries to place the blame elsewhere. "Jim Guy Tucker commuted this guy's sentence to make him parole eligible," Huckabee says, as we sit in the back of the minivan. "Clinton knew it, Tucker did it, and now they try to blame me for it." In 2002, several members of the parole board told the Arkansas Times that the governor had actively advocated for DuMond's release behind the scenes. Huckabee calls this a lie, but he acknowledges he made a public appeal for the parole. "And I certainly regret that, in light of what happened," he says.

But the DuMond debacle also provides a window into Huckabee's approach as he begins his run for president. He has refused to take the predictable path by talking tough on crime to deflect the DuMond criticism. Instead, he campaigns on a compassionate approach to wrongdoers, especially those whose crimes are the result of drug or alcohol addiction. At Philly's Finest, he condemned the "revenge-based corrections system," sounding every bit the sort of squishy liberal that the Bill O'Reillys of the world long ago scared into the shadows. "We lock up a lot of people we are mad at rather than the ones we are really afraid of," he said. "We incarcerate more people than anybody on earth." As governor, Huckabee pushed for drug treatment instead of incarceration for nonviolent offenders. He pushed for faith-based prison programs, and was critical of governors who "gladly pull the switch" on death penalty cases, an apparent knock on President Bush, who was criticized as governor of Texas for being cavalier about capital punishment.

On other issues as well, Huckabee refuses to toe the traditional conservative line. Wherever he goes, Republican audiences ask him about illegal immigration, and he answers with a meandering metaphorical anecdote about why the nation's borders should be as rigorous as airline security. But there is little doubt that Huckabee stands closer to President Bush, Ted Kennedy and John McCain on the issue than he does to the send-them-back-to-Mexico base of his own party. He speaks of creating a new process for receiving immigrants "who do want to come here, do jobs that we need them to do, do them in an orderly legal way."
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posted by Jeff Fuller | 1:23 AM | permalink
This article by Fred Barnes in the Weekly Standard has boiled things down to Romney vs. Rudy.

After praising the Ron Paul revolution . . . Barnes then bashed that campaign for having no strategy for winning the nomination; i.e. they lacked a credible scenario of success.

Scenarios matter. They offer a way to judge the presidential race. Strong candidates can outline a sequence of likely victories or impressive finishes in the caucuses and primaries that would lead to the nomination. Weak candidates can't. And, to be clear, a strategy and a scenario aren't the same. A scenario is a vision of a candidate's path to victory.

At this point, with the first voting just nine weeks away, only two candidates--Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney--have credible scenarios.
In that sense, the Republican campaign has become a two-man race, Rudy vs. Mitt. John McCain and Fred Thompson may not like this. They have scenarios, too, but theirs aren't terribly credible.

This means just what you think it does. More likely than not, the Republican nominee will be Giuliani or Romney. I remember the old Ken Murray television show in the 1950s that would cut to Hollywood and Vine, where, it was said, "anything can happen and usually does." That's true of politics as well. Still, the best bet is Rudy or Mitt.


Hmmm . . . where have I seen this predicted before? Maybe some smart presidential candidate sees things shaping up this way too. That AP article starts off with . . .

Mitt Romney says the campaign for the Republican presidential nomination will come down to Rudy Giuliani and a more conservative challenger. Like Mitt Romney.

It's no surprise that Giuliani is doing well in national polls of Republicans, Romney said Friday, because candidates with more conservative views on social issues such as abortion and gay rights are splitting the support of like-minded voters.

At some point, the former Massachusetts governor said, the party's conservative base will coalesce around a single candidate, making it tougher for Giuliani


(another spin on Romney's two-man race insinuation can by found here.

Back to Barnes . . .
There are three things to keep in mind when evaluating the presidential race in 2008. First, national polls don't matter at all. Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and John Kerry polled at 13 percent or less nationally before the primaries, then locked up the Democratic nomination a few weeks later [EDITORIAL INSERT by Jeff: All three of those came from SMALL STATES and didn't enjoy widespread national name recognition until some early wins . . . much like the Romney camp forsees things]. State polls provide a better clue of what may happen. Second, the primaries are a dynamic process. Win in the early states and you have a far greater chance of capturing the later primaries--and the nomination. Third, money is more important than ever in 2008. If a long shot like McCain or Thompson or even Mike Huckabee wins in Iowa (January 3) or New Hampshire (January 8) or South Carolina (January 19), there won't be enough time for him to raise the funds needed to compete effectively in Florida on January 29 and the 20-plus primaries on February 5. Television ads are expensive, but necessary.

Romney has an early-primary strategy aimed at Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. He's poured money into those states, broadcast TV spots, and built organizations. Fox News polls show him leading in Iowa and New Hampshire and a close second in South Carolina.

If he wins in Iowa and New Hampshire, he'll have history on his side. No presidential candidate in either party has failed to win the presidential nomination after finishing first in Iowa and New Hampshire--that is, since 1972 when Democrat Edmund Muskie managed the dubious feat of winning both but not the nomination. Romney also has the best shot to win the Michigan primary on January 15. He grew up in Michigan and his father George was governor. The other Republicans have all but ignored Michigan.

So the Romney scenario is obvious. He wins early and takes off like a rocket. His name identification soars. Just as significant, he'll have the money--his own, plus funds he's raised--to compete fully on February 5, Super Tuesday. I think this scenario is believable. Of course it's just a scenario, nothing more.

Then Barnes moves onto Rudy's plan:
Contrary to reports, Giuliani is not ignoring the early states. Well, Iowa maybe. He's campaigning aggressively in New Hampshire and leads in the Fox poll in South Carolina. If he stayed out of every state until the Florida primary, that would be fatal. The early winner would gain all the media attention and swamp him.

But Giuliani's focus is on Florida and then on the big-state primaries on February 5 in California, Illinois, New York, and New Jersey. He, too, has the funds to compete. His scenario--breaking out in Florida and blowing away the field on Super Tuesday--is credible in my view [Editorial insert by Jeff: "credible" but never tried/accomplished . . . history is definitely on Mitt's side, not Rudy's].

However, he could do well on Super Tuesday and still not lock up the nomination. The same is true for Romney. Should that happen, the Romney scenario sees conservatives drifting to him as the alternative to the more liberal Giuliani. Former congressman Vin Weber, a Romney adviser, says there's a ceiling on how many Republicans will back Giuliani, one that will keep him from winning the nomination. We'll see.

Barnes then mentions the McCain campaign's strategy of NH and SC wins to get momentum, but reasons:
It's conceivable, but he lacks the money he'd need on February 5.

Of Fred Thompson, Barnes is forced to conclude:
his strategy of running as the only "consistent conservative" hasn't stirred enough support to produce a credible scenario leading to the nomination.

All in all, Barnes gives a pretty fair analysis of the GOP race as it stands right now. I would add that it's becoming more and more clear that if Romney wins 3 or 4 out of the first 5 earliest states (IA, NH, NV, SC, MI--something that's looking more likely than not) that the social conservative votes will stop being split between the many candidates who showed they couldn't put together a victory in ANY early state. Social Conservatives and other "base" voters will coalesce more and more around Romney in order to avoid a pro-choice nominee that will bring out the 3rd party scenario ensuring Hillary will be POTUS . . . YUCK!!

Jeff Fuller
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1 Comments:


Great post. It is such a great point that Thompson, Huck and Romney are splitting the alternative to Giuliani vote. After a victory in Iowa and NH that will hopefully shift enough voters to Romney in time to beat Giuliani in the next states. Fred Barnes does give a good analysis about it being a two man race.




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