Kudos to Mike Huckabee who gave an excellent speech and was able to win the local straw poll. Congrats to Mitt for winning the overall straw poll with online savvy.

Couple of thoughts here:

1. Here's a quick genesis of how things happened from the Romney side of things. Over a week ago the Romney camp caught wind that over 1000 people had already voted in the straw poll. I guess Romney can count better than the other candidates (j/k) and quickly realized that this thing was going to be won online. In short: if 2500 people were attending the straw poll and 1000 people had already voted... anyone who didn't make an online showing would lose. They called up supporters and asked them to email their personal lists about the opportunity. We held the news from our blogs until Thursday night so as not to tip the other candidates (who apparently didn't put 2 and 2 together - again j/k) and the race was off.


2. 600 attendees actually voted online.... so the 952 votes is misleading. I'm not saying Romney won... but the seeming on-site rout for Huckabee needs a little context.


3. The big losers as Erick and Politico point out are Fred and Rudy. The former came in behind Romney and the later came in second. Second, that is, in the least acceptable candidate group.


4. Talking to numerous people at the convention... the flurry of Romney endorsements didn 'tnot go unnoticed. Many people came up to me asking numerous questions about Mitt. At one point a prominent radio host asked me to come over and explain where Mitt stands on stem cell research to another fellow news maker.
   
   
5. Here's a better contextual look at why Huckabee is a great guy... but won't be able to make it happen:


(note: legend got cut off on the graphic. All you need to know is this. Huckabee is the small almost non-existent line at the bottom of the graph.

Labels: frc, huckabee, mike huckabee, mitt romney, straw polls

Which of the following candidates for Presidentwould you most likely to vote for?

Mitt Romney	1595	27.62%
Mike Huckabee	1565	27.15%
Ron Paul	865	14.98%
Fred Thompson	564	9.77%
Undecided	329	5.70%
Sam Brownback	297	5.14%
Duncan Hunter	140	2.42%
Tom Tancredo	133	2.30%
Rudy Giuliani	107	1.85%
John McCain	81	1.40%
Not Voting	67	1.16%
Barack Obama	9	0.16%
Joe Biden	5	0.09%
Hillary Clinton	5	0.09%
John Edwards	4	0.07%
Dennis Kucinich	4	0.07%
Christopher Dodd	2	0.03%
Bill Richardson	2	0.03%
Mike Gravel	1	0.02%
Total	5,775	100%

Onsite Straw Poll Results

Mike Huckabee	488	51.26%
Mitt Romney	99	10.40%
Fred Thompson	77	8.09%
Tom Tancredo	65	6.83%%
Rudy Giuliani	60	6.30%
Duncan Hunter	54	5.67%
John McCain	30	3.15%
Sam Brownback	26	2.73%
Ron Paul	25	2.63%
Undecided	11	1.16%
Not Voting	7	0.74%
Barack Obama	5	0.53%
Christopher Dodd	2	0.21%
Dennis Kucinich	2	0.11%
Joe Biden	1	0.11%
Hillary Clinton	0	0.00%
John Edwards	0	0.00%
Mike Gravel	0	0.00%
Bill Richardson	0	0.00%
Total	952	100%

For more information about this event, visit

Another endorsement for Romney:


Boston, MA – Today, Dr. John Willke, a founder of the Pro Life Movement, endorsed Governor Mitt Romney and his campaign for our nation's highest office. Dr. Willke is a leading voice within the pro-life community and will be an important surrogate for Governor Romney's pro-life and pro-family agenda.

"Unlike other candidates who only speak to the importance of confronting the major social issues of the day, Governor Romney has a record of action in defending life. Every decision he made as Governor was on the side of life. I know he will be the strong pro-life President we need in the White House," said Dr. Willke. "Governor Romney is the only candidate who can lead our pro-life and pro-family conservative movement to victory in 2008."

Welcoming Dr. Willke's announcement, Governor Romney said, "I am proud to have the support of a man who has meant so much to the pro-life movement in our country. He knows how important it is to have someone in Washington who will actively promote pro-life policies. Policies that include more than appointing judges who will follow the law but also opposing taxpayer funded abortion and partial birth abortion. I look forward to working with Dr. Willke and welcome him to Romney for President."

Background On Dr. John Willke:
Dr. John Willke, Often Referred To As The Father Of The Pro-Life Movement, Served For 10 Years As President Of The National Right To Life Committee And Helped Found The Organization. A physician by trade, Dr. Willke serves as President of the Life Issues Institute, Inc., and President of the International Right to Life Federation. Dr. Willke had a daily radio program that was carried on over 300 radio stations for 20 years. His one-minute radio comments, entitled "Life Jewels," were carried on over 750 stations in English and 300 more in Spanish. Dr. Wilkie has written eleven books, is a lecturer and a frequent television and radio show guest. His works have been published in 32 languages, and he and his wife Barbara have lectured in 76 countries.

Video coming shortly.

Mitt's performance at the FRC Conference was phenomenal. The crowd was jazzed. The speech was spot on and the aftermath is very positive.

But don't take my word for it.

Erick at RedState:

This guy sounds like he's already the nominee. It's like the other candidates were here to sell themselves and Romney has taken the difference approach -- presume he's already been sold to them and show them what they've gotten. It's not a bad approach for him. It works.

Byron at the Corner:

After Romney's speech, a journalist sitting nearby said that it was all very professional. And indeed it was; Romney had a bunch of issues to touch, checked them all, and said goodnight. Very professionally done.

Newt is up here and kills as usual. One thing I defiantly agree with: "Americans are sick of Red vs. Blue fighting. They want Red, White and Blue."

He is by far one of the best speakers we have in the conservative movement. His only drawback is that he holds so much baggage right now. Regardless, we can't afford to ignore this man. He has the ideas.

My reaction so far?

• McCain - Had a very good speech. He is well respected and spoke from personal stories. But the audience knows they just cannot see eye to eye with this guy
• Thompson - Was very "homey" and "folksy" (which I like) but he just had so little energy about him. People want to be excited about him... but they can't see that excitement in him.
• Tancredo - Very well received. Locally here he may do well in the straw poll... but the poll is going to be won online. (More on this later)
• Hunter - Hunter is Hunter. Good speech... but not really well organized. Dark and dreary.
• Paul - Boy... he's a character. He may win the online poll (knowing the Pauline Nutroots). Nice applause... just an odd ball.
• Brownbank - gracious. Almost the same stump speech from CPAC. Farewell good fellow.

Great other speeches coming soon. Love being here

A few thoughts about the FRC, not actually being there myself:

First, the continued accumulation of prominent social-conservative leaders is impressive. As I said last week, after noting the implicit rejection of Huckabee by Gary Bauer and Tony Perkins:

In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if there was a general consensus among social conservative leaders after the Values Voter Summit next week.

Sounds almost prescient now, don't you think? While I don't have the power to see the future (or any insider knowledge from the campaign), it very much seems to be playing out that way. The list of prominent social conservative leaders who have openly endorsed Romney is growing by the day.

Second, Romney’s speech at the FRC tonight has been getting previewed a little. It’s topic? Families. I think this is a good topic for Romney. His record in Massachusetts is beyond reproach in fighting against re-definition of marriage. The topic also speaks to a broader array of issues than abortion alone does. Marriage and family not only serve as the social basis of society, but in our modern society, serves as the distinguishing economic difference between the poor and the wealthy. Thus, in a social sense, Romney can talk about values and problems like abortion that often stem from poor familial relationships (either between the two parents or between parents and children in the case of minor pregnancies). The topic of families also allows Romney to talk about the best way to lift people out of poverty; not by entitlement programs, but by increasing marriages and decreasing divorces.

Of course highlighting the topic that distinguishes the personal lives of the candidates is not a bad one either.

Third, it is also important to remember that Romney is not just the candidate of choice for social conservative leaders because of his stance on traditional values issues. Last week, the issue that turned off Bauer and Perkins from Huckabee was Huckabee’s statements about Iran. This is a far cry from abortion or gay marriage. Likewise, McCain and Thompson get downgraded because of their stance on free speech in McCain-Feingold(-Thompson?). Romney’s entire platform is what these people are endorsing. They like his stance on Iran. They like his stance on the first amendment. I wouldn’t be surprised if he also got points for his stance on immigration or economic issues.

Labels: family values

Well, almost all of them. Lunch is over and the crowds are starting to come in. Before we start up again I wanted to give a quick not to our fellow blogging comrades in the order I ran into them today:

• David and Nancy French from EFM (the influence of this indispensable crew cannot be understated)
  
• Marc Ambinder
  
• Jim G. from Campaign Spot
  
• Philip Klein from AmSpec
• John Henke from that other other candidate :)
• NZ Bear from Kithbridge (invest in it now if you have the money)
• Byron York from NRO
  

This flier is making its way around the FRC conference.

Update: No endorsement from Brownback.

First up: Mr. John "Let the chips fall where the may" McCain. McCain is earnest. Earnest but wrong. And that is his main problem. He just can't quite get it right as far as conservatives go. The crowd is attentive but suspicious in my view. Everyone here has a great respect for this American Hero... they just don't line up, eye to eye.

One item of note here. Fred has gone negative. In a flier handed out at the entrance Fred attacks Rudy and Romney for their pro-life credentials.



UPDATE: here's another flier make the rounds:



Quick layout at the Hilton:

We are live. Take a minute and vote in the straw poll.

Quick introduction to the event.



vote for straw poll

The Mitt Mobile came to Chicago. The big news? It stopped at fellow Mitt-Online-Activist Brady Alder. The Mitt Mobile, driven by Josh Romney, stopped at Brady's house to honor him for his work creating the "Romney Girl" YouTube.



Here are few videos of the event, including a video tour of the Mitt Mobile.



Mitt Mobile Arrives





Tour of the Mitt Mobile





Interview With Brady



Yes this is the Mitt Mobile with my 67 Buick Skylark. No, you can't have a tour of the Buick.

Another South Carolina SoCon endorsement for Romney:

"I am proud to stand alongside Governor Romney as he pursues our nation's highest office. His values are my values – protecting the sanctity of human life, defending marriage and strengthening the family. We need someone in Washington who will stand up for traditional families and Governor Romney is that person," said Dr. Wilton. "While we may not agree on theology, Governor Romney and I agree that this election is about our country heading in the right direction. Governor Romney is the best candidate to stand for conservative values in Washington."

Dr. Don Wilton Is Senior Pastor At The First Baptist Church Of Spartanburg, South Carolina, And The Immediate Past President Of The South Carolina Baptist Convention. Dr. Wilton was the 2006 South Carolina Baptist Convention President. He has served in churches in South Africa, Mississippi and Louisiana. He began his pastorate at the First Baptist Church in Spartanburg in 1993. His church currently has 6,900 members. A former faculty member at the New Orleans Baptist Theological Seminary, he currently teaches at the Billy Graham School of Evangelism and the Billy Graham Training Center at the Cove. Additionally, Dr. Wilton serves as President of the Encouraging Word Broadcast Ministry, which televises nationwide.

I don't how far this is going to go, but I think the Evangelical leadership is starting to hedge their bets.

I hear there might be some more...

After joining, you will be taken directly to your on-line straw poll ballot where you can vote for Governor Romney.

Again, this will take just a few clicks and a $1 at most to make a difference right now! Remember, vote now — the deadline is this Saturday at noon EST to get your vote cast before the polls close.

I believe we can make a difference—the difference in this election—and when Mitt Romney becomes the 44th president of the United States, I’m confident he will represent those American values that you and I care about so deeply.

...in limerick style:

There once was a guy we call Sam
Who’s a conservative politician
He said he’s whole-life
With religion he’s rife
And now he’s at home with the fam.

A Senator surnamed Brownback
His campaign was never on track
His third place in Ames
Sent his bid up in flames
And donations his campaign did lack.

Labels: brownback

OK. For those of you keeping score here we go again:

• James Bopp, Jr. comes on early for Romney (a "slam dunk" according to David Brody)
• Jay Sekulow gives his nod along with other prominent ACLJ activists
• Mark DeMoss keeps his powder dry and then lets it all out backing Romney
• More evangelicals begin to warm to Romney
• Endorsements by Bob Jones folk come on strong
• Dr. Mohler sets the context
• And now...

Wayne Grudmen gives a strong endorsement of Romney.

Some key excerpts:

As an evangelical professor of Bible and theology, I have decided to support Mitt Romney for President (even though he is a Mormon) for two old-fashioned reasons: First, he is the best-qualified candidate, and second, he holds moral and political values consistent with those in the Bible.

...

Conservative positions: Romney’s positions on social, economic, and international issues are all soundly conservative. On major issues such as protection of the unborn, a Constitutional amendment to protect marriage, strong national defense and victory against radical Islamic terrorists, securing our border, a signed pledge of no tax increases, promoting school choice, and appointment of Supreme Court justices who will interpret law, not make new law, Romney holds solidly conservative positions. His positions are the ones the majority of evangelicals have supported in the past.

Some people object that Romney has “flip-flopped” on some of these positions. I think that accusation is exaggerated. He hasn’t flip-flopped back and forth, he has simply become more consistently conservative. I think that’s a good thing in a political and media climate that is more and more liberal. (In fact, Ronald Reagan also changed from signing a liberal abortion law as governor of California to being a consistently pro-life president.) Evangelicals have worked for decades to persuade people of the pro-life position, and Romney has been persuaded, and he is strongly on our side on this issue.

What about his religion? Romney is a Mormon, and I strongly disagree with a significant number of Mormon theological beliefs, which I find to be inconsistent with the Bible and with historic Christian teachings. But many Mormon teachings on ethics and values are similar to those in the Bible, and those teachings support Romney’s conservative political values.

Can evangelicals support a candidate who is politically conservative but not an evangelical Christian? Yes, certainly. In fact, it would demonstrate the falsehood of the liberal accusation that evangelicals are just trying to make this a “Christian nation” and only want evangelical Christians in office. For evangelicals to support a Mormon candidate would be similar to supporting a conservative Jewish candidate—someone we don’t consider a Christian but who comes from a religious tradition that believes in absolute moral values very similar to those that Christians learn from the Bible.

....

Or have we come to the point where evangelicals will only vote for people they consider Christians? I hope not, for nothing in the Bible says that people have to be born again Christians before they can be governmental authorities who are used greatly by God to advance his purposes.

Labels: evangelicals

Update: Just to clarify: This is an official deck from the campaign, forwarded to fund raisers to help them in their Q4 efforts.

When Romney first entered the fray he was dubbed the "Mr. PowerPoint" and for good reason. He is one of the few candidates who makes regular use of the medium for more intimate group settings and for making the case for his strategy across his network of advocates.

Yesterday, MyManMitt obtained a copy of a "deck" entitled: "Romney vs. Rudy: Different Visions, Different Strategies". Here are some key slides from the deck.

Be sure to come back tomorrow as we bring you live coverage from "The Washington Briefing".

Title Slide: Romney vs. Rudy	What the pundits are saying (sample)	National vs. Local Polls
Romney's Strategy: Tested, Proven	Rudy's Strategy: Unproven	Rudy leads the national polls but...
Primary Calendar	Iowa and New Hampshire	Opportunity for Growth
Fundraising

Labels: fundraising, mitt romney, Polls, rudy, rudy giuliani, strategy

Update: today is the last day to help nominate for MyManMitt for the best new blog of the year award.

O Vanity of Vanities! Help us spread your love of MyManMitt to the masses.

I should note that these are not "votes" for the Best New Blog... but a "nod" from you on the following page would go a good long way to see that we are nominated:

This is a great pick up for Team Romney. It adds to the growing list of Florida endorsements including:

• Former Lieutenant Governor Toni Jennings
• Former Speakers of the House Allan Bense and John Thrasher
• Florida Agriculture and Consumer Services Commissioner Charles Bronson
• Former Chairman of the Florida Republican Party Al Cardenas
• Former U.S. Congressman Tom Feeney (R-FL)
• St. Petersburg Mayor Rick Baker
• State Representatives Anitere Flores and Trey Traviesa
• Former Representatives Dennis Baxley and Dudley Goodlette
• David Griffin
• Former Florida Secretary of State Glenda Hood
• Former Senator and Chairman of the Republican Party of Florida Van Poole.
• U.S. Congresswoman Ginny Brown-Waite (R-FL)
  

More on Mack:

"Congressman Mack has been a champion of conservative leadership in Florida and in the United States Congress. I am proud to have his support and counsel," said Governor Romney. "We agree that we have lost our way in Washington and that it is time for us to return to the core Republican principles of fiscal discipline, lower taxes, a strong military and less government. I look forward to working with Congressman Mack to take our message of strong new leadership to Floridians across the state during the coming months."

"Governor Romney is a proven problem solver with an unparalleled record of success in both the public and private sectors," said Congressman Mack. "Governor Romney is a mainstream conservative leader who will be a champion of hope and opportunity for every American, a catalyst for conservative change in Washington, and a staunch defender of our freedom, security and prosperity. I'm pleased to offer Governor Romney my endorsement and look forward to working hard to help elect him the next President of the United States."

Labels: connie mack, endoresements, Endorse, Florida

I was glad to see my former boss, Grover Trask, is backing Mitt Romney for President.

Grover Trask was a great District Attorney. I expect to have some more thoughts soon about why people associated with law enforcement want Mitt Romney to be President.

The Wall Street Journal Washington Wire reports:

A top official at Bob Jones University, the Evangelical Christian school with a history of anti-Mormon rhetoric, plans to throw his weight behind Mormon presidential hopeful Mitt Romney.

Robert R. Taylor, dean of the university’s college of arts and sciences, said he believes the former Massachusetts governor is the only Republican candidate who both stands a chance of winning the White House and will reliably implement the anti-abortion, antigay marriage, pro-gun agenda of Christian conservatives.

Couple this with the DeMoss letter, the favorable Perkins comments, and other social conservative endorsements... and we may have a harbinger of things to come.

Look out this weekend at the Washington Briefing. I'll try to do some spot interviews on these topics with whoever is at hand.

Update by Timotheus: Dr. Bob Jones III, chancellor of Bob Jones University endorsed Romney today.

Some quotes:

"'This is all about beating Hillary,' Jones said. 'And I just believe that this man has the credentials both personally and ideologically in terms of his view about what American government should be to best represent the rank and file of conservative Americans.'"

"'If it turns out to be Guiliani and Hillary, we've got two pro-choice candidates, and that would be a disaster.'"

This appears to be a watershed time for the Romney campaign as it relates to support from Christian Social Conservatives.

Notice the title isn’t “Who is The Front Runner.” Generally the title “Front Runner” is bestowed with a little bit of fact mixed with a little bit of popular perception. This post is not about who is the “Front Runner,” but who in my estimation is the most likely to win.

Well, no surprises here, it’s Romney.

Let me tell you why:


Fundraising

Marc Ambinder had this interesting chart from an “internal” campaign memo. These numbers have some serious implications.

1. How is it that Romney can raise more over all -and only 500K less in the last quarter- than Rudy when he has less than half of the supporter base as evidenced by RCP National Averages?
   
   Rudy has some money, but should his current fundraising performance continue into a general nomination campaign would he be able to keep up with Hillary? Hillary has raised near 90 million with an RCP average of 47.7 (as of October 15th) That is 1.9 million dollars per RCP Percentage point. We will call that her FPPP (Fundraising Per Percentage Point.) Rudy? He has an FPPP of around 1.5 million. Fred is at .4 million, but with only one quarter to claim. Romney? His FPPP is 5.5 million dollars.
   
   A hallmark of effective campaign organization surely is how much money you can extract from your base. If you don’t have the organization in a Republican primary, how will you do it in a general where opinion of the GOP is at a low?
   


2. Romney will not run dry on funds. Rudy, as best as I can tell, is worth around 70 million. McCain I believe around 1-2 million. Romney is worth (as everyone here knows by now) 250-500 million. At 500 million Romney could cut him self a 250 million check in the generals and still make the other candidates look like paupers. Going up against the Clinton machine, that will be pretty appealing.

State Strategies

Romney seems to have the upper hand, as compared to his opponents. With good leads (albeit not clear) in Iowa and New Hampshire he is in perhaps the strongest position in regards to primary voting. Polls bounce up and down in states like Nevada and Michigan, yet he is strong contender with undoubtedly the strongest ground game. Romney’s poll numbers in South Carolina and Florida are indeed moving up, much to the alarm of the other campaigns

Endorsements

Romney has been getting some pretty good love from Social Conservatives, who are the ones that will put in the time on Primary/Caucus day. Counting on moderates to carry the day for you in states like Iowa and South Carolina is generally not a good strategy. Of course we will have those who see it as there job to torpedo Mitt, but as it looks now, Mitt will have plenty of help from influential leaders who appear to be moving toward him.

Summary

Right now, my prediction is Mitt will win. He is the best positioned. Actually I believe with Mitt’s superior ground game in states like New Hampshire, Iowa, South Carolina, Nevada, Florida, you get the picture; he could be behind by 5-10% the day of the primary and or caucus and still pull of a win in any of those states.

Today at Politico we read the candidates seem to all be focusing there attention on Romney. It should be no surprise. If current trends continue the nomination is Romney’s to loose- and I think the others know.

If you happen to be in the DC area this weekend don't miss the FRC Washington Briefing, the largest gathering of values voters under one roof. It starts this Friday, October 19th.

All of the big boys will be there: Rudy, Thompson, McCain and of course our man Mitt! Here's the full three-day agenda.

Justin will be live blogging the event and as a special incentive we can offer you the student rate of $50, even if you aren't a student!

Labels: event, events

“How could anyone vote for a man who doesn’t have the brains to realize he belongs to a cult?
-- posted at a conservative website - referring to Governor Mitt Romney

I often see posts like this on some of the conservative blogs I read, so I thought I would do a little research and found a website called http://famousmormons.net/, and came up with the following list.

I don’t think anyone would argue that the following people don’t have “brains.”

Nolan Archibald, CEO, Black & DeckerJerry Atkin, CEO, Sky West, Inc.
Gary Baughman, Retired CEO, Fisher-Price
Stephen Covey, Chairman, Franklin Covey Co.
Gary Crittenden, CFO, American Express
Ron Dittemore, Director, Space Shuttle Program
Van Johnson, CEO, Sutter Health
Richard King, President, Albertsons
Steve Lund, CEO, NuSkin International
J.W. Marriott, Jr., Chairman, Marriott International
Dimon McPherson, CEO, Nationwide Insurance
David Neeleman, CEO, Jet Blue Airways
George Romney (1907-1995), Chairman, American Motors Corp.
Kevin Rollins, former CEO, Dell Computer Corp.
Lt. Gen. Brent Snowcroft, Retired USAF, National Security Advisor to both Presidents Ford and Bush from 1982 to 1989
Dieter F. Uchtdorf, Sr. VP, Lufthansa - German Airlines
Kay Whitmore (1932-2004), CEO, Eastman Kodak
Gary Allan, Country Western Singer
Eric Dodge, Country Western Singer
Gladys Knight, Performer
Bob Bennett, U.S. Senator (R), Utah
John Doolittle, Congressman (R), California
Orrin Hatch, Senator (R), Utah
Jon Huntsman, Jr., Governor (R), Utah
Steve Young, Retired Quarterback, Tampa Bay Bucaneers and S.F. 49ers

The people listed above have one thing in common.
They are all Mormons.

There are many more, too many to list here.

There is also a video based on a book entitled, “The Mormon Way of Doing Business” and you can find it at YouTube here.

“Great spirits have always found violent opposition from mediocrities. The latter cannot understand it when a man does not thoughtlessly submit to hereditary prejudices, but honestly and courageously uses his intelligence and fulfills the duty to express the results of his thought in clear form.”
-- Albert Einstein (1879-1955), quoted in New York Times, March 19, 1940

Back by popular demand... we have updated our Mitt Romney interactive New Hampshire map. There was some jive talk last week that Thompson could easily catch up to Romney's organization in New Hampshire.

I tend to disagree. I think you will too.

Click on any of the icons, zoom in, or view the larger map.


View Larger Map

Labels: interactive, maps, New Hampshire