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Tuesday, October 16, 2007
posted by jason | 6:13 AM | permalink
Notice the title isn’t “Who is The Front Runner.” Generally the title “Front Runner” is bestowed with a little bit of fact mixed with a little bit of popular perception. This post is not about who is the “Front Runner,” but who in my estimation is the most likely to win.

Well, no surprises here, it’s Romney.

Let me tell you why:


Fundraising

Marc Ambinder had this interesting chart from an “internal” campaign memo. These numbers have some serious implications.

  1. How is it that Romney can raise more over all -and only 500K less in the last quarter- than Rudy when he has less than half of the supporter base as evidenced by RCP National Averages?

    Rudy has some money, but should his current fundraising performance continue into a general nomination campaign would he be able to keep up with Hillary? Hillary has raised near 90 million with an RCP average of 47.7 (as of October 15th) That is 1.9 million dollars per RCP Percentage point. We will call that her FPPP (Fundraising Per Percentage Point.) Rudy? He has an FPPP of around 1.5 million. Fred is at .4 million, but with only one quarter to claim. Romney? His FPPP is 5.5 million dollars.

    A hallmark of effective campaign organization surely is how much money you can extract from your base. If you don’t have the organization in a Republican primary, how will you do it in a general where opinion of the GOP is at a low?

  2. Romney will not run dry on funds. Rudy, as best as I can tell, is worth around 70 million. McCain I believe around 1-2 million. Romney is worth (as everyone here knows by now) 250-500 million. At 500 million Romney could cut him self a 250 million check in the generals and still make the other candidates look like paupers. Going up against the Clinton machine, that will be pretty appealing.



State Strategies

Romney seems to have the upper hand, as compared to his opponents. With good leads (albeit not clear) in Iowa and New Hampshire he is in perhaps the strongest position in regards to primary voting. Polls bounce up and down in states like Nevada and Michigan, yet he is strong contender with undoubtedly the strongest ground game. Romney’s poll numbers in South Carolina and Florida are indeed moving up, much to the alarm of the other campaigns

Endorsements

Romney has been getting some pretty good love from Social Conservatives, who are the ones that will put in the time on Primary/Caucus day. Counting on moderates to carry the day for you in states like Iowa and South Carolina is generally not a good strategy. Of course we will have those who see it as there job to torpedo Mitt, but as it looks now, Mitt will have plenty of help from influential leaders who appear to be moving toward him.

Summary

Right now, my prediction is Mitt will win. He is the best positioned. Actually I believe with Mitt’s superior ground game in states like New Hampshire, Iowa, South Carolina, Nevada, Florida, you get the picture; he could be behind by 5-10% the day of the primary and or caucus and still pull of a win in any of those states.

Today at Politico we read the candidates seem to all be focusing there attention on Romney. It should be no surprise. If current trends continue the nomination is Romney’s to loose- and I think the others know.
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2 Comments:


...in “there job” and “there attention”, “there” should be spelled “their”. Good analysis notwithstanding.



The link in the last paragraph is broken.

By Anonymous Anonymous, at October 17, 2007 at 6:52 AM  



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