Mitt Romney for President My Man Mitt

The indispensable Jim Geraghty (whose website should defiantly be on your browser tab on election night) had this to say about Romney's numbers:

I realize everything can change fast in Iowa and New Hampshire, and some are rightly skeptical about the value of polling in a caucus state. I also recognize that some pollsters' methods of figuring out who's a "likely voter" are better than others.
But if I were a Romney guy, I'd be pretty pleased about the trends in those two primary states.
...
Even the South Carolina numbers are starting to look better across several polls — he's leading the field at 29 percent, up 6 percentage points on Giuliani in ARG (okay, really, how is Fred Thompson getting 10 percent in South Carolina?), tied with Giuliani and one point behind Thompson in Winthrop/ETV, in a three-way tie for second and five points behind Thompson in InsiderAdvantage, leading the previous ARG by 3, and down 9 percent in Rasmussen, and even that's five percent higher than the previous poll by that organization.

JG attributes the NH success to the serious attention that Romney has given to the state. One Romney campaign operative told me that they are literally stunned at how little the Rudy folks are in NH. They feel its "there for the taking" and they'll take it if no one else will.

We couldn't agree more!

Labels: New Hampshire, Polls


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Here's a couple of new polls

First, there's two new polls from New Hampshire. Marist shows Romney extending his lead from their last poll in October. Giuliani gains, McCain is down, Paul is up, and Thompson is in freefall:

Republicans (w/leaners)
Romney 34 (+7 vs. last poll in Oct)
Giuliani 23 (+2)
McCain 13 (-4)
Paul 7 (+5)
Huckabee 7 (-1)
Thompson 5 (-5)
Undecided 12 (-3)

The Boston Globe/University of New Hampshire poll shows a similar picture:

Romney 32 (no trend)
Giuliani 20
McCain 17
Paul 7
Huckabee 5
Thompson 3
Undecided 16

Overall, RCP shows Romney with an aggregate lead of 11 points.

Second, in Florida, the St. Petersburg Times shows Romney's continued improvement there over the last few weeks:

Giuliani 36
Romney 19
McCain 12
Huckabee 9
Thompson 8

Labels: Florida, New Hampshire, Polls


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Romney is out in front BIG on both of these. First, from New Hampshire, Rasmussen shows Romney up by 15:

Romney 32 (+4 vs. last poll Oct. 23)
Giuliani 17 (-2)
McCain 16 (nc)
Huckabee 10 (nc)
Thompson 7 (+1)

Second, Zogby shows Romney's lead at 16 points in Iowa:

Romney 31 (-2 vs. 8/18 poll)
Huckabee 15 (+7)
Giuliani 11 (-3)
Thompson 10 (-2)
McCain 8 (+2)

Also, don't miss today's article in The State talking about Romney's surge in South Carolina in the last month:

As recently as late September, Romney was polling consistently in the single digits and was typically in fourth place. But recent surveys show the former Massachusetts governor surging, as voters have gotten to know Romney and he has earned the endorsement of key evangelicals such as Bob Jones III, former Chancellor of the fundamentalist Greenville university of the same name.
Romney, who is Mormon, has spent considerable time wooing Christian conservatives here and elsewhere and convincing them he’s strong on social issues.
The effort apparently has paid off.

Labels: iowa, New Hampshire, Polls


	2 Comments: Kicking butt and taking names! By Anonymous, at November 8, 2007 at 11:18 PM Could/would Mr. Thompson, Mr. Huckabee, Mr. McCain, and Mr. Giuliani please tell me why and how - when they have all stated to Mitt Romney...the latest being Mr. Thompson...that "you can't buy South Carolina", or "you can't buy votes" - will they pleaser inform me just how they plan on getting through to people WITHOUT a decent budget or spending towards advertising and travel? With media time costing more on television, radio and newspaper - just how do they propose trying to get people to pay attention to them? Romney is doing it right and getting it right! GO ROMNEY!!! By Anonymous, at November 9, 2007 at 12:00 PM Post a Comment

A lot of people don't like ARG polls. They've had problems in the past. But the trends in favor of Romney are undeniable:

American Research Group Republican Iowa Caucus

Romney - 27% (22)
Huckabee - 19% (4)
Giuliani - 16% (21)
McCain - 14% (11)
Thompson - 8% (16)
Tancredo - 2% (1)
Paul - 1% (2)
All others - less than 1%

Survey was conducted Oct 26-29 of 600 likely Republican caucus goers, and has a 4% MoE. Numbers in parentheses are from their Sept poll.

American Research Group New Hampshire Republican Primary

Romney - 30% (24)
Giuliani - 23% (20)
McCain - 17% (20)
Huckabee - 7% (3)
Thompson - 5% (8)
All Others - 1% or less

Survey was conducted Oct 26-29 of 600 likely Republican primary voters and has a 4% MoE. Numbers in parentheses are from the Sept poll.

American Research Group South Carolina GOP Primary

Romney - 29% (26)
Giuliani - 23% (23)
McCain - 13% (15)
Thompson - 10% (10)
Huckabee - 5% (1)
Paul - 4% (2)
Hunter - 2% (1)
All others - 1% or less

Survey was conducted Oct 26-29 of 600 likely Republican primary voters and has a 4% MoE. Numbers in parentheses are from the Sept poll.

Labels: Polls


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Update: Just to clarify: This is an official deck from the campaign, forwarded to fund raisers to help them in their Q4 efforts.

When Romney first entered the fray he was dubbed the "Mr. PowerPoint" and for good reason. He is one of the few candidates who makes regular use of the medium for more intimate group settings and for making the case for his strategy across his network of advocates.

Yesterday, MyManMitt obtained a copy of a "deck" entitled: "Romney vs. Rudy: Different Visions, Different Strategies". Here are some key slides from the deck.

Be sure to come back tomorrow as we bring you live coverage from "The Washington Briefing".


Title Slide: Romney vs. Rudy	What the pundits are saying (sample)	National vs. Local Polls

Romney's Strategy: Tested, Proven	Rudy's Strategy: Unproven	Rudy leads the national polls but...

Primary Calendar	Iowa and New Hampshire	Opportunity for Growth

Fundraising

Labels: fundraising, mitt romney, Polls, rudy, rudy giuliani, strategy


	4 Comments: The Phenomenal Rise of Mitt Romney It started on Tuesday, January 09, 2007. Mark Joseph of Fox news told us that Mitt Romney would likely not win the Republican nomination for President because Evangelicals in states like New Hampshire (20% of voters), South Carolina (34% of voters), and Iowa (37% of voters) would not support a Mormon candidate. Then, Steve McMahon (Dem Strategist), speaking with Chris Matthews, claimed the same thing. Not only was Romney a Mormon, he was really a “Massachusetts Liberal”. Few if any in the MSM and on the professional pundit shows gave Mitt Romney a chance. John King of CNN summed it up for us, “A successful Olympics, one term as governor and 3 percent in the national polls does not give you the nomination.” My, my . . . things have certainly changed in the past nine months. According to USAElectionPolls.com, Romney’s rise in the national polls has been just short of astounding. Consider these key states: Arizona 10% in January to 18% in October California 3% in January to 11% in October Florida 2% in January to 16.5% in October (wow!) Iowa 8% in January to 24.3% in October Michigan 9% in January to 39% in September* Nevada 11.5% in March* to 23.5% in October New Hampshire 13% in January to 24% in October Ohio 4% in January to 8% in October Pennsylvania 1% in January to 8% in October (wow!) South Carolina 6% in January to 16% in October And here are some interesting averages: Southern States from 4% in January to 16.3% in October Western States from 7.5% in January to 28.2% in October Red States from 7% in January to 17.8% in October Blue States from 6.6% in January to 16% in October (wow!) Consider that Romney is splitting the polls with up to eight other candidates, and he is leading or a close second in those states that the pundits said he had little chance of winning. For Romney, if the next twelve months is anything like the last nine, they will not call him “Mitt the Mormon” anymore. They’ll be calling him Mr. President. *polls were not available in for January/October By Ken Howell, at October 18, 2007 at 10:40 AM That's a very thorough object lesson in how to run last century's campaign. Gen. McNamara would heartily approve this message. Cheers, Karl at PA for Hizzoner By Anonymous, at October 18, 2007 at 12:54 PM Have you ever noticed that when someone can't answer with a logical argument they often resort to mockery? By Anonymous, at October 18, 2007 at 2:05 PM A persuasive powerpoint, but it strikes me as defensive, trying to make a case that Mitt's low numbers in national polls and polls in the February 5 states don't mean he's losing. Mitt's strategy may work; it just as easily may not. His real problem is a worse positive/negative ratio even than Hillary. By Anonymous, at October 18, 2007 at 3:32 PM Post a Comment


	2 Comments: Nicely done Mitt! Looks like Florida is going the way of South Carolina. Mitt has gone from single digits to making it a real contest in a matter of one month. Also interesting is the fact that 29% of Americans have never heard of Mitt and 15% more have no opinion of him. This means Mitt has significant room to grow. All Americans will know his name once he wins in Iowa. By Slick-Willy, at October 10, 2007 at 1:24 PM Amen, Slick Willy!! By Beth Barnat, at October 10, 2007 at 11:59 PM Post a Comment


	2 Comments: As excited as I am about these numbers, I think this is a fluke. There are no other supporting numbers to say otherwise. So, it's interesting, but probably not valid. By Horatio, at September 30, 2007 at 5:50 PM I'd love to believe these numbers are accurate, but I agree w/horatio. I'm especially skeptical of ARG polls -- they frequently are way off trends from all other pollsters. Then again, I'm still hoping! By Slick-Willy, at October 1, 2007 at 10:27 AM Post a Comment


	1 Comments: Another poll showing Romney in the lead in Michigan. He is showing some great strength there, but don't be surprised if the next Michigan poll has it a lot closer. This poll was done over Labor Day weekend. Most polls done over any weekend can be a bit screwy and one over a holiday weekend could be even more messed up. And we are dealing with ARG which isn't the most accurate polling firm anyway. By Anonymous, at September 5, 2007 at 4:51 PM Post a Comment


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	5 Comments: Captain Ed finds it very hard to be kind to Mitt Romney. If he says anything remotely positive is must be VERY positive for Mitt. By Anonymous, at August 20, 2007 at 5:16 PM The only wind blowing is the "hot wind" that Mitt is blowing out of his orifice. Mitt is a propaganda machine. He reminds me of most of the Dems that are a futile campaign similar to that of Mitt's. Who knows, Mitt may reverse his jello-like stand on abortion and become a Dem himself. His beliefs are closer to a Dems anyway. You Mittheads are just setting yourself up for more disappointments from Mitt. Mitt is in this race for the money and everyone knows it. Just remember, you heard it from me first By Anonymous, at August 20, 2007 at 8:57 PM By the mitt hits the fan, you are nothing but a blow-hard jackass. Just remember, you heard it from me first. By Anonymous, at August 20, 2007 at 11:18 PM Mitt is in it for the money? The man has amassed about $250 million working in the private sector. He has infused several million into his campaign. He has said that he would not take take a salary as President. Sorry, but I strongly doubt that Mitt's run for the presidency is motivated by monetary gain. Mitt believes that he can make a difference and be an effective leader to lead the US in the right direction. He is working his butt off so that he can serve us. By Anonymous, at August 21, 2007 at 6:35 AM Ah, the Ignorati is here. --------- Fan hitter, if you knew how to read perhaps you would know Mitt Romney took NO SALARY as governor of Massachusetts and has already declared he would donate his Presidential Salary to charity. ----- By the way, do you even know the salary of the President of the United States? Mitt can make more than that in a WEEK -- and has. By Anonymous, at August 21, 2007 at 8:30 AM Post a Comment


	2 Comments: Don't forget about Michigan! They're thinking about pushing their primary up to Jan. 29 (the same day as Florida's). If they do, I expect that to be another big win for Mitt. By Caderade, at August 17, 2007 at 5:02 PM Somebody forgot to tell the folks in Nevada the results of Ames Straw Poll aren't important. By Anonymous, at August 17, 2007 at 7:20 PM Post a Comment

Rich Lowry gives the heads up on a new South Carolina poll showing Romney making a move there.

Public Policy Polling Republican South Carolina Primary
Thompson - 22%
Giuliani - 18%
Romney - 17%
McCain - 11%
Huckabee - 7%
Brownback - 3%
Paul - 2%

Survey was done August 13 of 749 likely primary voters, and has an MoE of 3.6%.

I can’t vouch for the methods and accuracy of the poll, but it seems South Carlolinians didn’t realize they weren’t supposed to pay any attention to Iowa Straw Poll headlines. Also, Romney was ticking up a bit nationally prior to the straw poll.

For those not following the South Carolina polls (and I can't blame you for that), Romney's numbers have generally followed his national numbers, hovering around 10% on average. RCP had his average at 7.3% in South Carolina. This new poll shows a marked improvement and possibly a sign of good things to come. This also follows a national trend showing that has Romney ticking upward. The last three polls (Rasmussen, Quinipiac, and ARG) show Romney surging consistently if not spectacularly.

Justin has been the best at explaining all the horserace stuff and nuts and bolts of politicing, but it seems like Romney's old school strategy is working. South Carolina, Florida, and other states that other Republican candidates have been banking on look like Iowa and New Hampshire of a couple of months ago. Now, with the early winning, consistently spectacular debate performances, and grassroots organization, Romney is poised to take the lead in those states. Also, for all the grief that pundits gave Romney for his investment in Ames (even with a solid win), it too seems to be paying off, as Lowry seems to have noted.

Labels: Polls


	10 Comments: I knew that it was only a matter of time before my comments were thrown into the circular file. Fear not the truth will come out on Gov. Romney. Mitt needs to fess up on the abortion issue too. He needs to say "Yes I used to be pro-abortion. I know my stand on abortion probably caused thousands of Mormon girls to abort their babies. I was wrong." Now do you think Mitt is going to make this admission? Nope, me either. His previous stand on abortion is going to hang around his neck like a 3 day old dead fish. Mitt has a record and we are going to make sure the American electorate knows all about it. Go ahead and delete this post too. By Anonymous, at August 15, 2007 at 7:53 PM Hey Mitt hits the fan, Logic and factual evidence are the best way to make people believe in your cause. Not making ridiculous statements like Mitt caused 1000s of Mormon girls to abort their babies. Odd that Mitt would do that, considering he probably has never been an ecclesiastical leader for a 1000 pregnant young Mormon girls. Why don't you post some new evidence that apparently the 18% of likely primary voters in 'conservative' South Carolina that would vote for Mitt in the primary have not seen. Same old stupid arguments, same old non-factual data behind ridiculous claims. By Anonymous, at August 15, 2007 at 11:08 PM Hey MHTF, Why would Jason delete your comments? You sound like a complete nut job and the way you present your positions makes Mitt look even better to rational people. Keep up the good work. By Mr. Dern, at August 15, 2007 at 11:17 PM Sorry, troll visiting hours ended at 7:00. By Anonymous, at August 15, 2007 at 11:38 PM Fess up on the abortion issue? Have you been following politics? Romney has been very open about how he used to be pro-choice. Heck, he even said so in this last debate. By r7968df6, at August 16, 2007 at 2:33 AM Mitt Fan guy, You are more than welcome to post here if you can stay of the knocking others religion. It doesn't matter if it's more LDS, Hindu, Catholic, Baptist, Lutheran, Shinto, Sikh, Muslim, Buddhism, Scientology, etc. We just don't want it here. Anything else is fine, because it seems you basically prove our point for us. By jason, at August 16, 2007 at 7:19 AM --- Pro-choice and chosing to follow the laws of a state are totally different things. There are lots of pfo-life leaders and legislators who follow the rule of law in their state. ----All current Republican Presidential candidates who are in a posititon to lead or legislate FOLLOW the law of the land including legal abortions. ------ There are some, like Ron Paul, who vote AGAINST bills that would make it illegal to transport a minor across state lines for an abortion. ----- Mitt Romney has NEVER vetoed a pro-life or absistence education bill. NEVER. ---- So Mitt Romney has a BETTER pro-life LEADER than Dr. Ron Paul. ---- Mitt Romney came under fire for being "cruel" when advising a young girl that abortion was not an option she should consider. This story is on the Internet in different places, check it out for yourself. - By Anonymous, at August 16, 2007 at 7:38 AM McFan, You're unreal, buddy. Bordering on complete lunatic. Provide some data. Make compelling arguments. All you do now is provide wonderful target practice for even the inexperienced. What an unfortunate lightweight! - Mitt's record is clear. He's the only one who's been forthright about the positions he's changed. - He admits to being wrong. Do you watch the debates? You can write, but can you see or read? You've missed a lot, it appears. - You're mention of LDS girls is ludicrous, though consistent with your style and approach. By Nealie Ride, at August 16, 2007 at 8:09 AM Yes I used to be pro-abortion. I know my stand on abortion probably caused thousands of Mormon girls to abort their babies." Not a chance. The Governor always thought abortion was wrong and always opposed it, though unfortunately he took the easy way out in Massachussetts of saying that he wouldn't impose his beliefs on others. By Anonymous, at August 16, 2007 at 10:41 AM And he drove all the youth to alcoholism because he didn't bring in prohibition. :S By Anonymous, at August 16, 2007 at 2:17 PM Post a Comment


	1 Comments: Another note from this poll: When asked who they would not vote for under any circumstances, 38% said McCain, 30% said Giuliani, 22% said Fred Thompson and only 17% said Mitt Romney. It's nice to see that our candidate has not only the highest positives, but the lowest negatives as well. By Slick-Willy, at July 18, 2007 at 11:45 AM Post a Comment


	3 Comments: the leads in these state are even more impressive considering they all vote before or on Feb. 4th. Also don't forget that the latest poll out of CA has Romney with a big lead. If he wins there, he wins the nomination. Go MITT! http://www.dryflypolitics.com By Anonymous, at June 21, 2007 at 12:14 PM If Romney won New Hampshire, then Nevada, then Iowa, I think the momentum may be unstoppable. By Anonymous, at June 21, 2007 at 1:23 PM Obviously, good news for Mitt. Also, have you guys seen this? The Fred Thompson campaign has been misrepresenting their ratings from NRTL (Right To Life)- Only 33% in 2001-02 (Not 100% as they claimed). A pattern is developing here. This fits in with not remembering being pro-choice, or not remembering supportng McCain-Kennedy last year. Here is the Link: http://www.washingtontimes.com/article/20070623/EDITORIAL/10623006/1013 Posted By ST. By Anonymous, at June 23, 2007 at 6:08 PM Post a Comment


	4 Comments: What a shame to start off this Presidential race with nasty personal insults about Sam Brownback. Can't you come up with any arguments to articulate about his positions instead of personal insults? Is this what we have to look forward to from Mitt Romney? Thanks, but no thanks! By Anonymous, at June 16, 2007 at 3:05 PM That's excellent news for California. Maybe soon we'll see similar results in Florida which also is a supposed Rudy stronghold. By Nate Gunderson, at June 16, 2007 at 5:02 PM First, why not post your comments in the proper section where the "insults" were made? It's easier to follow your reasoning. Second, plenty of arguments have been made about Brownback and the other competitors. However, since Brownback is so low in the polls and infrequently considered, most attention is focused on those truly running for POTUS. We all had to listen to Brownback and others during the debates. Yawn. Though he's a nice man, he's got negative charisma. About the issues, why haven't I heard anyone else make a similar case for Iraq (3 states)? They all likely think he's out to lunch on the subject. He's all for amnesty, and even sided w/ McCain on the topic during the last debate. I understand he's for "whole life", making him sound more like my insurance guy than an aspiring president. As I said, he's nice, but he's only got right one issue--abortion. He even waffled on that one back in the 90s. It's well-documented that he lacked the clarity early on. He's now proven to be strong on that issue, but we are all looking comprehensively at candidates--not for a single issue. Further, Sam's never been an executive. Moreover, he's been part of the mess and tailspin of the GOP the last few years. Mitt Romney is a polite man who is running an extremely positive, vision-based campaign. He doesn't need to take time to mischaracterize others. He's got his own message to share. Your one-issue boy, Sam, and the older gentlemen from Arizona, in contrast, have little else to do but stir up a fuss about an issue that is settled in most people's minds. Mitt's clearly not perfect. He's just clearly more perfect than the other contenders. By Nealie Ride, at June 17, 2007 at 2:51 PM I suppose this poll was lost on people who are still musing on the bottom feader thing. WHAT DID YOU JUST SAY!!! Winning in California?!(!#@&!(@&!(*@&! I thought this couldn't be true. I mean, I have been campaigning hard around the office and well, my bumper sticker campaign is heating up, but winning? Now, I must say, it could be an outlier poll. Maybe the 500 or so people is too small a sample. Maybe they should have talked to people who weren't registered to vote who intend to vote. Maybe they called at the wrong time of day. Whatever your explanation though, this is an extraordinary poll. The fact that any poll shows Romney winning in California isreally exceptional. By Anonymous, at June 18, 2007 at 2:14 PM Post a Comment

New FL Poll

NH Polls

South Carolina

National Polls moving?

Geraghty: Romney Fans Should Be "Pretty Pleased"

New Polls

Two new polls

New ARG Polls: Romey on top in IA, NH and SC!

NH Poll

Romney vs. Rudy: The PowerPoint

Romney Surge in Florida?

South Carolina Craziness

Arg's Michigan Numbers

Supporting the surge

Yaarrrr...a strong tail wind be blowin'

Nevada for Romney

Romney moving up in the SC?

Some news

#1 in Nevada

New poll shows Romney leading in California?!