1. The Huckabust is indeed coming (don't tell Abe)


2. Romney is holding well in New Hampshire and building strength in Iowa and


3. McCain is back.

• Huckabee lost 11% points since last week. Romney gained 4% and McCain 8%


• Gender breakdown: Oh, the fickle female race. Huck lost 20% points from women (McCain gained 13 of those in turn). Compare that to an 8% point loss from the male column for Huck. (Don't show my wife this post :) )


• Age bracket: The young upstarts (18-29) are pretty settled on their choices now according to Rasmussen. But the 40-49 crowd are on the move, shedding themselves of Huck by 27% while 21% have hoped over to McCain. Huck lost 21% of the 50-64 crowd which dispersed across the entire crowd of folks.


• Political leanings: Wow! Did the full throttle hammering from the other candidates really work? Looks like it. Huck lost a whopping 38% of the conservative vote. Mitt actually wins this round by picking up 24% vs. McCain who picked up 14%.


• Married with kids: These folks abandoned Huck as well. 24% and 26% respetively. There must be something to this because the single / no kids demo didn't move away from Huck hardly at all.


• $$$. Huck lost double digit % points in almost all the wealth brackets. Once again, McCain and Romney traded gains from these groups.


• Religion. OK. Drumroll please.... Evangelical Christians matched the Conservative demo and left Huckbee by 35%. Yikes.


• People are generally fickle as well. 25% of those who said they were certainly going to vote for Huckabee changed their minds. Note this. Mitt now leads the "certain" pack with 32% of people indicating they are staying put. Compare that to Huck with 16% and McCain with 17% certainty.

Labels: iowa, iowa caucus, poll, rasmussen

• Romney made huge gains in the 18-29 crowd with a whopping 19% increase in the young age bracket. (Again, I should point out that this number, like the Iowa internals, are way out of bounds but they're interesting nonetheless). Where did they come from? The 35% unsure mark at the beginning of December went down to 15%. The upstarts are finally making up their mind.
  
  
• Thompson dropped like a rock among voters age 30-39 losing 30% points over two weeks according to this Rass. poll. (Again, this is an outlier but I have to note it as something that stands out). Meanwhile Huckabee gained 14% of these folks to his camp. Conversely though, Huck lost 14% of the 50-64 crowd (from 32% down to 18%).
  
  
• Romney and Huckabee each took home 24% of the "Conservative" leaning GOPers while Thompson lost 7% of this demo, down to 12% from 19% two weeks ago.
  
  
• If you're wondering, no dramatic loses for Rudy... rather, just a steady decline by small percentage points across the board. His only gains were among "Liberal" leaning GOP primary goers and the 40-49 demo (9% increases in each demo).
  
  
• Speaking of political leanings. Thompson lost 22% from liberal leaning GOPers. (Note, this is probably a small sample of the overall group of people polled so no biggie). Interestingly enough, Rudy garners 75% of the "don't know" crowd when it comes to political leanings.
  
  
• Family stat notables. Romney is catching up with Huckabee among married voters but Huckabee leads in the "voters with kids" demo.
  
  
• Income brackets. Thompson tanks in almost each wealth demo across the board (losing an average 10% in each bracket). Romney catches Huck for the lower income bracket (23% each).
  
  
• Huckabee has a solid lock on the Evangelical vote with Thompson coming in second. (Huckabee: 42%; Thompson 14%; Romney 12%; Undecided 11%). But Romney now leads among SC Protestants and dominates among Catholics (34% to Rudy's 13%). Romney also leads the "Other" category of religion.
  
  
• As far as vote change probability goes... Romney and Huckabee actually lead the pack with 60% and 51% of those polled indicating that their vote might change. I think this readily reflects the tenuous nature of the voting pack altogether. Looking at the other state polls we find the same thing with Rudy or whoever the top two folks are. People are still really uncertain about where this is going and who they support.
  
  
• Finally, on the issues. Romney wins the on "Economy" and "Immigration" while Huck takes "National Security" and ties on the "War in Iraq". Huck lost serious ground on both the Economy and Immigration demo. Huck actually lost 16% points on the "War in Iraq" and is now in a 5 way tie. I also should note the McCain is picking up some slow steam across the board but most notably on issues of "National Security"

Labels: poll, polling, rasmussen, south carolina

• There was no difference in the sexes. Men and women alike lined up with the numbers above.
  
  
• However, women under 40 were almost twice as likely to "discuss politics with a passion" than their counterpart males (20% vs. 11%). In fact, 30% of men under 40 indicated that they tried to "avoid political discussion"
  
  
• Republicans were far more likely than Democrats to discuss politics with a passion (22% vs. 13%)
  
  
• People who are investors were more likely to avoid political discussion but its pretty negligible.
  
  
• Interestingly, while "passionate" discussion was relatively the same among Whites, Blacks and "Others" (16%, 10% and 16%) Blacks were far more likely to discuss politics occasionally (56%, 72%, 54%), and avoidance of political discussion lines up in a like manner (26%, 16%, 27%).
  
  
• Other age breakdowns. It appears that the fluctuation of "passionate" and "avoidance" goes in cycles. 18 to 29 avoid more; 30-39 more passionate; 40-49 less passionate; 50-64 more passionate; 65+ avoid more.
  
  
• How about incomes? Avoidance seems to be the key variable: Under 20K - 42% avoid; 20K-40K 28% avoid; 40K-60K: 17% avoid; 60K-75K: 18% avoid; 75K-100K 22% avoid; 100K+ 15% avoid. Most "passionate" bracket? The last one, 100K+ at 22%
  

Labels: christmas, election, holidays, politics, poll, polling

Thompson came into the GOP race late with the hope of winning over social conservatives unsatisfied with the rest of the party's field, and racked up a key endorsement from the National Right to Life Committee last week. But the former star of the television drama "Law and Order" has trailed the GOP front-runners in early voting states since entering the race in August, and his support in New Hampshire dropped from 13 percent in a September poll to 4 percent in November's survey.

By contrast, Romney's support grew from 25 percent to 33 percent over the same period; McCain held steady at 18 percent; and Giuliani dipped from 24 to 16 percent.

Labels: New Hampshire, poll

Labels: Florida, poll

Labels: poll, Polls, south carolina

Labels: fundraiser, poll

Labels: poll, rankings

The recent sparring between former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and Senator John McCain is not accidental. Both campaigns are led by wizened pros of the political arena. Both camps have serious ground operations already in place. Both camps have numerous endorsements from local elected officials. Both camps have an existing base of supporters across the nation. Finally, both camps realize that Rudy will not win the Primary and that the race will come down to Romney or McCain.

While McCain decried the “money in Washington" he also fired quite a few individuals over the lackluster performance in Q1 fundraising. But McCain knows fundraising. He has one of the best mailing lists in the politics and has hired mail firms that can tell you within a 10% how much money you will raise per drop.

Romney has a smaller list but has mastered the art of incentive-based fundraising with numerous programs tailored to the individual. Paybacks for College Students; networking for young professionals; online bonus points for the net savvy; associate fundraising for the real ambitious. Team Romney has also commandeered a good number of former Bush associates in Florida, Ohio, New Hampshire and elsewhere to run their ground operations.

Rudy has his name. He has a decent national staff. Rudy may match both candidates with the simple star power... but beyond this he does not have the ground game to make up the difference.

I could go on... but I really don't have to. The race is still Romney vs. McCain. And after this last week... I like our chances :)

Labels: ground game, poll

Labels: iowa, poll

According to a SurveyUSA poll of 551 likely Republican Primary voters, Mitt Romney gathered 32%, followed by Rudy Guiliani at 23% and John McCain with 22%. Fred Thompson finished fourth with 11%.

Labels: poll

McCain’s choice to skip the county conventions in South Carolina are really starting to hurt him. First it was a state Representative who had endorsed McCain but voted for Romney in the Horry County straw poll - and said he may switch his endorsement in the future. He was confused as to why McCain wasn’t there, which was a good question - Romney had attended the same dinner earlier in the day as McCain and still managed to make it down to South Carolina.

Now, there’s a local endorser who actually has jumped ship over to Camp Romney, in part because of McCain’s absence:

Saluda County Sheriff Jason Booth jumped to Romney’s campaign on Wednesday, and other party officials have questioned the candidate skipping their county conventions. McCain’s campaign had no immediate comment on Booth’s switch.

Welcome to the team, Sheriff Booth! McCain’s South Carolina organization is in danger right now, and by the time he makes it down there to re-kick off his campaign at the end of this month, he will have missed at least 20 more county conventions and straw polls.

And here’s the latest straw poll result from McCormick County’s convention this evening:

Romney - 35%
Cox - 19%
Giuliani - 16%
McCain - 13%
F Thompson - 8%
Newt - 3%
Undecided - 5%

Labels: John McCain, poll, Polls, south carolina

...Also of note is Romney’s showing in the poll. This is the first InsiderAdvantage/ Majority Opinion survey in major Southern states to show Romney in double digits. The Fox News poll also showed Romney with 14 percent. This reflects the candidate’s many visits to the state and the fact that South Carolina voters are looking at the potential contest more closely than in most other Southern states.

Labels: poll, south carolina

1. IA – 17%, 3rd place behind McCain at just 21% now.
2. NH – 25% tied for 1st with McCain
3. SC –14%, moving up to third, Rudy at first with 26%
4. MI – 21%, 2nd

Labels: iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire, poll, Polls, south carolina

Labels: poll, south carolina

Labels: John McCain, Mormon, New Hampshire, poll

Zogby: Romney Rockets!

Latest New Hampshire telephone poll shows Romney's support nearly doubles to 25% to tie McCain; Giuliani trails at 19%

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has rocketed to the top of the field of contenders for the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary crown, running dead even with Arizona Sen. John McCain at 25% each, a new Zogby International telephone poll shows. With Romney’s ascension, the GOP presidential race looks just like the Democratic contest – a three–way battle!

While McCain has held mostly steady at the top of the Republican field in New Hampshire, losing just one point since January, Romney has made the big move up from 13% two months ago. Rudy Giuliani, the former mayor of New York who is the toast of Republican primary voters nationally, finds himself in third place in the Granite State at 19% support, falling slightly from 20% in January to 19% this week.

Fred Thompson, the actor and former senator from Tennessee won 6% support in this latest survey of 502 likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters, which was conducted April 2-3, 2007, and contains a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points.

Labels: New Hampshire, poll, Polls

Labels: poll, Polls

THE POLL: Franklin Pierce College and WBZ-TV New Hampshire telephone survey March 7-12.
REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCE _ 400 likely Republican presidential primary voters, sampling error plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

John McCain 29 percent

Rudy Giuliani 28 percent

Mitt Romney 22 percent

Newt Gingrich 5 percent

Mike Huckabee 2 percent

Sam Brownback 1 percent

Chuck Hagel 1 percent

Duncan Hunter 1 percent

Ron Paul 1 percent

Tom Tancredo percent

Jim Gilmore X percent

George Pataki X percent

Tommy Thompson X percent

Undecided 9 percent

Labels: New Hampshire, poll

1. Romney was the only candidate to finish in the top 2 in every segment of the conservative movement that he mentioned in his speech (1st in fiscal, 2nd in social, 2nd in national security)

2. Every other candidate has one (or more) areas of the conservative coalition that will under no circumstances choose them as their favorite, with the possible exception of McCain. For example, Brownback gets killed in fiscal and national security conservatives, Giuliani gets only 8% of social conservatives, etc)

3. Therefore, Romney is the only candidate with a legitimate chance of uniting fiscal, social, and national security conservatives to create the same kind of national coalition that Bush gathered. Nominating anyone else (again, with the possible exception of McCain, but I really don't think he will win when stacked up against Romney's relative youth, overwhelming charisma and optimism, etc) will cause segments of the GOP coalition to sit it out a little bit, causing President Hillary.

4. Romney's stand-out performance among young voters will only get stronger. In my opinion, my generation looks for optimism, pragmatism and dynamism from their politicians (note Obama's popularity among young Dems). Romney is the only Republican candidate who exemplifies all three of those traits. Romney, as his name and voice get out there, could be Obama-style popular among young Republicans.

http://timeforchoosing.com/node/111

Labels: brownback, cpac, poll, Polls, rudy