Well, it's finally here: Caucus day. Jason's out there, working hard and following the campaign. Unfortunately, I'm here in California (gearing up for my last semester of law school), trying to get a sense of everything going on out there in Iowa. So, I'm asking for your help.

We want to give everyone a feel of what is going on all around Iowa. To do this we need you to write in. Let us know what's going on, either why you voted for Mitt or any other circumstances going on where you caucused. I will post your thoughts and experiences throughout the day.

Email us at info@mymanmitt.com. Tell us what you've seen or heard or why you voted for Mitt. Thanks for your help and GO ROMNEY!

Labels: iowa caucus

Marc Ambinder passes this along:

A Romney volunteer writes:

Today I spent all day at the Romney HQ manning the phones calling voters all over Iowa. We ran into voters who told us they had gotten calls from people stating they represented the Romney campaign and when the voter disclosed they planned to vote for Romney, the caller then asked to take a few minutes to outline Romney's policy positions. The caller would then provide a litany of misleading statements like how Romney planned to raise taxes and why, etc.

Me: If any of you have gotten these calls, let us know. Email us at info@mymanmitt.com.

Also, don't forget to tell us why you caucused for Mitt or any of the other goings on in Iowa. Email us at info@mymanmitt.com.

Labels: iowa caucus

Remember, I will be posting your thoughts about why you voted for Romney or what you have seen going on in Iowa as we help the Romney campaign win in Iowa. Send your comments to info@mymanmitt.com.

Reader Scott sends along a link to his blog. Here's a snippet:

Caucus Day is finally here, and I couldn't be more pleased. I have my blue shirt, red tie, and Mitt Romney campaign sticker on, I have a full schedule for therapy, and I get off work an hour early so I can go round the neighborhood and pick up septigenerian and octogenerians and take them with me to our precinct tonight. For a political junkie, it's like having the Super Bowl in your backyard.

Last night I spent some time over at the county headquarters for Des Moines County (which happens to be nowhere near Des Moines, Iowa) and made some phone calls to Republicans in Burlington, helping them know where their precinct is and counting potential votes. It was so much fun that I called Shauri afterward and asked her if there was anything else I could do to help our county (she's the county chair for Henry County). Indeed she did have a stack of tasks for me. She's been working very hard for the campaign. Yesterday she was able to get more people to change their votes when she followed up on the calls she made almost a month ago. She reported though that there are a lot of people who still haven't made up their minds about who they will support, and aren't even bothering to do the research on the candidates to see what their positions are.

Labels: iowa caucus

From reader Brad:

I'm at Headquarters today in Urbandale, Iowa with the volunteer force. We have had an AMAZING response from people all over Iowa and across the country coming together to make calls. Bill Hemmer (sp?) of Fox News was here and just blown away. He had just come from the Huckabee office, and said that most of his volunteers were 13-year-old girls making calls. So, he was impressed by the quality of our volunteers.

Yesterday we had pep talks from Ann Romney, Gentry Collins, Doug Gross (former candidate for Iowa Gov) and others. It was an inspirational day, and we're making thousands of phone calls. We are optimistic, but working like it all depends on us (because, in many ways, it does)...

So, things are going great. Anything else you want to know?

Labels: iowa caucus

I've been looking over the 2006 Senate race polls that Rasmussen did right before the election. On average, they were 2-3% points off... but all in all they did a pretty good job calling the state level elections. My gut feeling tells me that Rass. polls are leading indicators and that other polls will start showing the same trends shortly in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Those trends are:

1. The Huckabust is indeed coming (don't tell Abe)


2. Romney is holding well in New Hampshire and building strength in Iowa and


3. McCain is back.

I'll churn out some New Hampshire details tomorrow. But here are the key points from the Iowa crosstabs:

• Huckabee lost 11% points since last week. Romney gained 4% and McCain 8%


• Gender breakdown: Oh, the fickle female race. Huck lost 20% points from women (McCain gained 13 of those in turn). Compare that to an 8% point loss from the male column for Huck. (Don't show my wife this post :) )


• Age bracket: The young upstarts (18-29) are pretty settled on their choices now according to Rasmussen. But the 40-49 crowd are on the move, shedding themselves of Huck by 27% while 21% have hoped over to McCain. Huck lost 21% of the 50-64 crowd which dispersed across the entire crowd of folks.


• Political leanings: Wow! Did the full throttle hammering from the other candidates really work? Looks like it. Huck lost a whopping 38% of the conservative vote. Mitt actually wins this round by picking up 24% vs. McCain who picked up 14%.


• Married with kids: These folks abandoned Huck as well. 24% and 26% respetively. There must be something to this because the single / no kids demo didn't move away from Huck hardly at all.


• $$$. Huck lost double digit % points in almost all the wealth brackets. Once again, McCain and Romney traded gains from these groups.


• Religion. OK. Drumroll please.... Evangelical Christians matched the Conservative demo and left Huckbee by 35%. Yikes.


• People are generally fickle as well. 25% of those who said they were certainly going to vote for Huckabee changed their minds. Note this. Mitt now leads the "certain" pack with 32% of people indicating they are staying put. Compare that to Huck with 16% and McCain with 17% certainty.

Bottom line. Remember those religious women having trouble deciding who to vote for and taking a hard look at Huckabee? They changed their mind. McCain is taking about half of the crowd leaving the Huck auditorium. Romney takes about 30% and the rest peter out among Ron Paul and Rudy.

McCain shows some real momentum and Romney has regained his former standing. Here's McCain's problem in Iowa... he needs Huckabee to absolutely bottom out before he can even meet Romney head to head. With Thompson's King endorsement and newfound life this will be a fight.

Are we bored yet? :)

Labels: iowa, iowa caucus, poll, rasmussen

Jim G., Jonathan Martin, and Soren Dayton are talking up the Mormon factor in the upcoming primaries, particularly in Iowa.

Let me give you the Mormon perspective on all this. The 22,000 number being thrown around is a bit misleading but the impact of the Mormon vote can hardly be ignored.

Let's set the baseline semantics so we get things right here.

• A Ward is the equivalent of a parish. Mormon congregations are organized strictly by geography. At any Mormon chapel you might pass there are typically 2 to 4 wards that meet there. So, for example, in my Virginia suburb of Ashburn there are 4 wards. We all meet in the same building on Sunday and throughout the week. Each ward is comprised of roughly 400-600 members. A Branch is a smaller congregation that you might find in remote areas or that caters to ethnic groups (for example, a "Spanish Branch").
  
• A Stake comprises about 9-12 wards (Think of "tent stake"). This is the local leadership structure that helps with regional activities and needs.
  
• Mormons will sometimes refer to "active" and "inactive" members. Wards and Stakes track the "activity rate" (% of the ward that regularly attend Sunday meetings). This can range between 40% and 70%. As I understand it Iowa activity rates are somewhere between 50% and 60%.
• In Iowa there are 7 stakes; 35 wards; 32 branches with roughly 22,000 members.
• Potential caucus goers? When you subtract the number of eligible voters (Mormons have a lot of kids), take a chunk away for "inactive" members, and the narrow down that group to registered voters you get about 10,000 potential caucus goers. But Mormons love football as much as the next guy (the Orange Bowl happens to be that night with Kansas playing) and even with "their guy" in the race I wouldn't expect a dramatic 90% turnout from the Mormon base.
  
• Also, consider, this isn't a lockstep vote. I know plenty of Mormons who are die hard Ron Paul fans.
  

Bottom line: I expect no more than 3000 extra votes for Romney from the Mormon base in Iowa. Still, that's roughly 6% of overall caucus voters and could mean the difference the race the way things are shaping up.

Labels: iowa, iowa caucus, Mormon