I've been looking over the 2006 Senate race polls that Rasmussen did right before the election. On average, they were 2-3% points off... but all in all they did a pretty good job calling the state level elections. My gut feeling tells me that Rass. polls are leading indicators and that other polls will start showing the same trends shortly in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Those trends are:

1. The Huckabust is indeed coming (don't tell Abe)


2. Romney is holding well in New Hampshire and building strength in Iowa and


3. McCain is back.

I'll churn out some New Hampshire details tomorrow. But here are the key points from the Iowa crosstabs:

• Huckabee lost 11% points since last week. Romney gained 4% and McCain 8%


• Gender breakdown: Oh, the fickle female race. Huck lost 20% points from women (McCain gained 13 of those in turn). Compare that to an 8% point loss from the male column for Huck. (Don't show my wife this post :) )


• Age bracket: The young upstarts (18-29) are pretty settled on their choices now according to Rasmussen. But the 40-49 crowd are on the move, shedding themselves of Huck by 27% while 21% have hoped over to McCain. Huck lost 21% of the 50-64 crowd which dispersed across the entire crowd of folks.


• Political leanings: Wow! Did the full throttle hammering from the other candidates really work? Looks like it. Huck lost a whopping 38% of the conservative vote. Mitt actually wins this round by picking up 24% vs. McCain who picked up 14%.


• Married with kids: These folks abandoned Huck as well. 24% and 26% respetively. There must be something to this because the single / no kids demo didn't move away from Huck hardly at all.


• $$$. Huck lost double digit % points in almost all the wealth brackets. Once again, McCain and Romney traded gains from these groups.


• Religion. OK. Drumroll please.... Evangelical Christians matched the Conservative demo and left Huckbee by 35%. Yikes.


• People are generally fickle as well. 25% of those who said they were certainly going to vote for Huckabee changed their minds. Note this. Mitt now leads the "certain" pack with 32% of people indicating they are staying put. Compare that to Huck with 16% and McCain with 17% certainty.

Bottom line. Remember those religious women having trouble deciding who to vote for and taking a hard look at Huckabee? They changed their mind. McCain is taking about half of the crowd leaving the Huck auditorium. Romney takes about 30% and the rest peter out among Ron Paul and Rudy.

McCain shows some real momentum and Romney has regained his former standing. Here's McCain's problem in Iowa... he needs Huckabee to absolutely bottom out before he can even meet Romney head to head. With Thompson's King endorsement and newfound life this will be a fight.

Are we bored yet? :)

Labels: iowa, iowa caucus, poll, rasmussen