As many of you know I've had my head down engaging with a new and exciting job for the Lighted Candle Society. The non-profit motif is new to me so I'm scaling back on the public political musings for a bit... but I thought I'd jump in for a quick sortie to throw a few timbers on the fire.

With that gambit of mixed metaphors... I'll begin:

• Senator McCain: Frankly, I'm shocked. How do you spoil and waste 7 years of Presidential build-up, organization, supporter lists, and serious ground game? I have no idea. Messrs. Nelson and Weaver can tell you but they won't until the primary is over. Months ago I defended McCain saying he was here to stay. I am seriously stunned that he seems to be on the way out.
  
  
• Thompson: Will someone pull the trigger for this guy? I'd love to have him announce anytime here. Or did I miss it? Also, FDT Redstate ra-ra's are finally getting a taste of defending a candidate. The heat is pretty constant now but Fred is doing pretty well. But I doubt we'll hear much about any flip-flopping from here out. As Patrick R. pointed a little bit ago, he's OK with flip-flopping. I think a lot of bloggers' opinions will follow suit.
  
  
• Rudy: This is weird. Rudy has a lot of money and a lot of name power and good early polling numbers but not a lot of ground game? As a frank admission I should say that Romney insiders really had no idea where he was going to end up at Q2. His strong showing wasn't surprising but it certainly wasn't good news to Mitt & Co. Will his poll numbers continue to fade? Can he pull off a primary win without a good showing in Iowa or New Hampshire? How will he use his war chest?
  
  
• Mitt Romney: Here's the one remaining question for Team Romney: Is this a traditional primary election or not? In other words, if the status quo remains... Romney wins. Period. If this is like any other Primary election in the past and if Romney keeps his predominant lead in IA and NH... he will win.

I've alluded to the near science behind primary elections previously. Basically it comes down to this: for every margin percentage point, the winner of the New Hampshire primary is 8% more likely to win the nomination. If Romney maintains his 9-10 point margin in New Hampshire he has an 80% chance of capturing the GOP win.

Here's a question that Patrick is looking to answer about Fred:

Now, don't get me wrong. Voting is important. But doesn't fervency count for a lot in a volatile primary situation?

Patrick's referring to the generous nods that Fred has been throwing towards bloggers.

So, my question is this: will a virtual campaign built at the "new" grassroots trump the "traditional" grassroots? Or will the non-stop flesh-pressing and Mitt-Mobiling crank the decades of precedent and win the election?

Labels: grassroots, ground game

At least, that's what the press wants you to think.

The man who had been written off across the political spectrum as unelectable is suddenly leading in Iowa and New Hampshire (two of the three critical early Primary wins according to Charlie Cook).

So, how do you deal with serious trends showing serious momentum for Mitt? Ah yes, now he's peaking too early.

The vacillation of press excuses is humorous but really par for the course.

My prediction remains however. While many would chalk the race up to Rudy vs. Romney the tea leaves tell me that McCain is the man to beat. Yes he has taken to self-defeatism of late but you discount McCain at your peril.

The recent sparring between former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and Senator John McCain is not accidental. Both campaigns are led by wizened pros of the political arena. Both camps have serious ground operations already in place. Both camps have numerous endorsements from local elected officials. Both camps have an existing base of supporters across the nation. Finally, both camps realize that Rudy will not win the Primary and that the race will come down to Romney or McCain.

While McCain decried the “money in Washington" he also fired quite a few individuals over the lackluster performance in Q1 fundraising. But McCain knows fundraising. He has one of the best mailing lists in the politics and has hired mail firms that can tell you within a 10% how much money you will raise per drop.

Romney has a smaller list but has mastered the art of incentive-based fundraising with numerous programs tailored to the individual. Paybacks for College Students; networking for young professionals; online bonus points for the net savvy; associate fundraising for the real ambitious. Team Romney has also commandeered a good number of former Bush associates in Florida, Ohio, New Hampshire and elsewhere to run their ground operations.

Rudy has his name. He has a decent national staff. Rudy may match both candidates with the simple star power... but beyond this he does not have the ground game to make up the difference.

I could go on... but I really don't have to. The race is still Romney vs. McCain. And after this last week... I like our chances :)

Labels: ground game, poll

In business we learn: "Face the brutal facts" and "Know your competitor". So, here we go.

Far be it from me to disagree with Hugh Hewitt... (after all he's written the book on this one)... but I have to take issue with him here. I do this in the same spirit of the warning flags he raised about Zogby last week. As much as I would love to see the McCain campaign crash and burn... it just isn't going to happen.

Hugh has rightly documented the seemingly steady decline of the McCain campaign. Today he notes: "The Parrot is Dead":

Senator McCain may hang around through Iowa and New Hampshire, but there's nothing as over as Christmas and a front-runner's campaign gone flat.

No doubt the lackluster performance of McCain on many fronts (most notably in fundraising) has given the political community serious pause. But there are several aspects to this race to consider.

For example, take a look at a sample of the the endorsements McCain has garnered in the past two weeks:

• 20+ Mayors from Alabama (just today)
• 20+ Mayors from South Carolina
• 20+ Mayors from Iowa

Also consider:

• His Iowa and NH HQs are almost complete
• He still reigns pretty high in early primary polls
• No major staff defections (plenty of heartache and confusion but no defections)

This is just a sample.

In my mind the ground game is all important. I believe the Romney campaign knows this and is banking on the notion that the last two folks standing will be Mitt and McCain.

Don't get me wrong... I would love to see McCain sputter and spit by the end of the year. But my gut tells me he's here to stay, even beyond NH and IA.

Here's a quick chart I put together to demonstrate the prowess of the ground game:
The chart below ranks the GOP candidates based on all the elements of a ground game (or, at least, all the elements we could think of). This is essentially a "ranking" or "scoring" chart showing the "tier" rank for each candidate..

The lower score (higher rank) shows serious ground game.

Labels: ground game, mc

Here's the thing, no matter how popular the flavor of the month is (Gingrich, Giuliani, Thompson) the real question is "Who can win?" We answer this question by asking "Who's got game?"

You see, you cannot win simply by a popular vote a year out from Iowa. You have to show "game"!

The chart below ranks the GOP candidates based on all the elements of a ground game (or, at least, all the elements we could think of). This is essentially a "ranking" or "scoring" chart showing the "tier" rank for each candidate.

The lower score (higher rank) shows serious ground game.

Labels: ground game, John McCain, mitt romney, primaries, primary, score