posted by Justin Hart | 6:31 AM |
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At least, that's what the press wants you to think.
The man who had been
written off across the political spectrum as unelectable is suddenly leading in Iowa and New Hampshire (
two of the three critical early Primary wins according to Charlie Cook).
So, how do you deal with serious trends showing serious momentum for Mitt? Ah yes, now he's
peaking too early.
The vacillation of press excuses is humorous but really par for the course.
My prediction remains however. While many would chalk the race up to Rudy vs. Romney the tea leaves tell me that McCain is the man to beat. Yes he
has taken to self-defeatism of late but you discount McCain at your peril.
The recent sparring between former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and Senator John McCain is not accidental. Both campaigns are led by wizened pros of the political arena. Both camps have serious ground operations already in place. Both camps have numerous endorsements from local elected officials. Both camps have an existing base of supporters across the nation. Finally, both camps realize that Rudy will not win the Primary and that the race will come down to Romney or McCain.
While McCain decried the “money in Washington" he also fired quite a few individuals over the lackluster performance in Q1 fundraising. But McCain knows fundraising. He has one of the best mailing lists in the politics and has hired mail firms that can tell you within a 10% how much money you will raise per drop.
Romney has a smaller list but has mastered the art of incentive-based fundraising with numerous programs tailored to the individual. Paybacks for College Students; networking for young professionals; online bonus points for the net savvy; associate fundraising for the real ambitious. Team Romney has also commandeered a good number of former Bush associates in Florida, Ohio, New Hampshire and elsewhere to run their ground operations.
Rudy has his name. He has a decent national staff. Rudy may match both candidates with the simple star power... but beyond this he does not have the ground game to make up the difference.
I could go on... but I really don't have to. The race is still Romney vs. McCain. And after this last week... I like our chances :)
Labels: ground game, poll
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