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Tuesday, July 10, 2007
posted by Justin Hart | 10:32 PM | permalink
As many of you know I've had my head down engaging with a new and exciting job for the Lighted Candle Society. The non-profit motif is new to me so I'm scaling back on the public political musings for a bit... but I thought I'd jump in for a quick sortie to throw a few timbers on the fire.

With that gambit of mixed metaphors... I'll begin:
  • Senator McCain: Frankly, I'm shocked. How do you spoil and waste 7 years of Presidential build-up, organization, supporter lists, and serious ground game? I have no idea. Messrs. Nelson and Weaver can tell you but they won't until the primary is over. Months ago I defended McCain saying he was here to stay. I am seriously stunned that he seems to be on the way out.

  • Thompson: Will someone pull the trigger for this guy? I'd love to have him announce anytime here. Or did I miss it? Also, FDT Redstate ra-ra's are finally getting a taste of defending a candidate. The heat is pretty constant now but Fred is doing pretty well. But I doubt we'll hear much about any flip-flopping from here out. As Patrick R. pointed a little bit ago, he's OK with flip-flopping. I think a lot of bloggers' opinions will follow suit.

  • Rudy: This is weird. Rudy has a lot of money and a lot of name power and good early polling numbers but not a lot of ground game? As a frank admission I should say that Romney insiders really had no idea where he was going to end up at Q2. His strong showing wasn't surprising but it certainly wasn't good news to Mitt & Co. Will his poll numbers continue to fade? Can he pull off a primary win without a good showing in Iowa or New Hampshire? How will he use his war chest?

  • Mitt Romney: Here's the one remaining question for Team Romney: Is this a traditional primary election or not? In other words, if the status quo remains... Romney wins. Period. If this is like any other Primary election in the past and if Romney keeps his predominant lead in IA and NH... he will win.
I've alluded to the near science behind primary elections previously. Basically it comes down to this: for every margin percentage point, the winner of the New Hampshire primary is 8% more likely to win the nomination. If Romney maintains his 9-10 point margin in New Hampshire he has an 80% chance of capturing the GOP win.

Here's a question that Patrick is looking to answer about Fred:
Now, don't get me wrong. Voting is important. But doesn't fervency count for a lot in a volatile primary situation?
Patrick's referring to the generous nods that Fred has been throwing towards bloggers.

So, my question is this: will a virtual campaign built at the "new" grassroots trump the "traditional" grassroots? Or will the non-stop flesh-pressing and Mitt-Mobiling crank the decades of precedent and win the election?

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To me, it appears like Giuliani is going for a big state strategy, spending his “war chest” on Florida and California. If Mitt Romney wins, which he probably will, he will have Giuliani’s strategy team to thank for it.

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