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Tuesday, July 10, 2007
posted by Kyle Hampton | 2:04 PM | permalink
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 32 days

Uh, in case you didn’t realize it, we’ve got essentially 1 month before the Iowa straw poll. That’s not very long. With that in mind, here’s a few thoughts about the Iowa straw poll:

The front loading of the calendar has forced two schools of thought on the candidates. One has been to discount the role of the early states. This has been the Giuliani premise. It argues that with so many big states right after the early states, the momentum garnered from winning Iowa, New Hampshire, or South Carolina is negligible. Thus, the resources that would normally be used there can be more effectively used to win big states like Florida and California. There is some logic to this thinking.

The other school of thought is that there is added significance to the role of the early states. This has been Romney’s premise. It argues that there is less time to recover from an early defeat in the first primaries. Thus, it is pivotal to win the early states because you won’t really get a second chance.

Certainly each has its gambles, but it seems like the Giuliani plan is significantly more risky. In essence Giuliani is saying that money is more important than momentum. In the world of politics, that seems doubtful at best.

Which brings us to the Iowa straw poll. There are very few times where we get to compare presidential nominees. We’ve had a few so far with the debates and the ongoing money race. There have also been a few local straw polls here and there. Most of those straw polls are of a few hundred people at most. The “controversial” Young Republican straw poll this last weekend was of 366 people. By comparison, the Iowa straw poll is several thousand people. The Iowa Republican Party reports that 23,685 votes were cast in 1999. This makes the Iowa straw poll not only important because of its early date but also because of the large number of voters. These two factors make it such an important indicator for presidential candidates. If the candidate can make a strong showing among such a large group of people at an early date, his candidacy carries enormous momentum. At the straw poll we get a great way to compare candidates in a qualitative and quantitative manner.

The guys over at Iowans for Romney have offered to help any interested Mitt supporters to get signed up for the event.


And don’t forget that anytime is a good time to donate.

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2 Comments:


You mentioned about Rudy wanting to channel monies into the Super Tuesday's big states. Funny thing about it. He really has not spend any yet. His grassroot movements barely are organized anywhere. He have done nothing but riding on the wave of his 9/11 image. I am continually amazed that people are gullible with this image because first, he stepped down as a mayor four, that is ** 4 **, months later, and second, he actually has not done anything to terrorists. If anything, he has helped with the relief effort very well in those few months. But that HAS NOTHING to do with terrorists themselves!



Yep. Rudy is virtually all image. That is why the fire fighters' attacks (http://www.rudy-urbanlegend.com/)on that image as potentially threatening to him as Kerry's swift boaters. If his hero image is damaged or if his real positions exposed too openly, he appears very weak.




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