Tom Bevan at Realclearpolitics.com has some interesting observations on the Fox News Poll that was released today.

He points out the following numbers in the poll:

Are you more who are more or less likely to support a candidate who
is a Mormon?

Republicans only:
More likely 8% (a lot more likely 4%, somewhat more likely 4%)
Less likely 30% (a lot less likely 19%, somewhat less likely 11%)
Not a major factor 59%

Are you more who are more or less likely to support a candidate
who has changed his or her position on the issue of abortion?

Republicans only:
More likely 16% (a lot more likely 6%, somewhat more likely 10%)
Less likely 28% (a lot less likely 16%, somewhat less likely 12%)
Not a major factor 39%

He also Points out these numbers:

Are you more who are more or less likely to support a candidate who
is pro-choice on the issue of abortion?

Republicans only:
More likely 22% (a lot more likely 12%, somewhat more likely 10%)
Less likely 46% (a lot less likely 36%, somewhat less likely 10%)
Not a major factor 30%

Are you more who are more or less likely to support a candidate
who supports civil unions for gays and lesbians?

Republicans only:
More likely 8% (a lot more likely 5%, somewhat more likely 3%)
Less likely 50% (a lot less likely 39%, somewhat less likely 11%)
Not a major factor 38%

He draws the following from this:

Obviously, as a general proposition, the numbers show that between the two,
Rudy has the more significant obstacles to overcome. But we already knew
that.

More concerning for Giuliani is this:

The biggest red flag for Rudy has to be that only 42% of Republicans surveyed
correctly identified him as pro-choice. Twenty-one percent of Republican
voters have it wrong and think Rudy is pro-life, and another 36% of
Republicans don't have a clue what his position on abortion

In other words there is room to strike here for Romney.

One red flag for me on these numbers is the following:
These numbers are from a poll of registered voters not likely voters. The Difference? Likely voters are generally more informed because they have it in their mind they are going to vote while the larger pool of registered voters includes folks who registered at the DMV and haven't thought about the words Republican, Democrat or Government since. My point? The category 'Registered Voters' includes folks who are totally uninformed about the issues and the candidates and some of these folks are quite happy to remain ignorant of these issues.

At this stage of the game the national horse race polls aren't important but these internals are very interesting. The polls that do matter though are in New Hampshire and Iowa, where we are less than a year away from. Where the polls in these two states go so goes the media and the attention.

Here's Tom Bevan's full article
AND
The Full Fox News Poll

Labels: Polls