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Wednesday, January 30, 2008
posted by jason | 4:31 PM | permalink
ala Hugh Hewitt. It's why Mitt is still in this. I do remember hearing that whoever won NH would win MI, that certainly didn't hold, and it was touted till election day. Things can change quickly. Mitt has a tough road in front of him, but he is the man for the challenge.

Next Tuesday the winner-take-all states that lean McCain are New York (101), Missouri (58), Arizona (53), New Jersey (52) Connecticut (30), and Delaware (18) for a total of 312 delegates. (Even though Missouri, another winner-take-all leans Huck right now, lets give its 58 delegates to McCain.)

Romney is favored in winner-take-all Utah (36) and Montana (25), for a total of 51 delegates.

Thus before the sorting takes place in the other states, McCain's got 409 delegates and Romney's got 126.

Huckabee will certainly get the 34 Arkansas delegates to go with his 29, for a total of 63.

States dividing delegates Tuesday on other-than-a-winner-take-all basis:

California 173
Georgia 72
Illinois 70
Tennessee 55
Alabama 48
Colorado 46
Massachusetts 41
Minnesota 40
Oklahoma 41
West Virginia 30
Alaska 29
North Dakota 26

Total 671

If these divide 40-40-20, McCain and Romney will add 269 delegates each, and Huck 133. But since we are going worst case for Romney, make it 50-30-20, or 336 for McCain, 201 for Romney, and 134 for Huck.

Total at the end of Super Tuesday without a major reversal of fortune for Romney:

McCain 745, Romney 327, and Huck 197.

It takes 1,191 delegates to secure the nomination. There are more than 900 delegates left to fight for after Super Tuesday.
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OK this is what I've been looking for, someone knowledgeable saying Mitt is still legitimately in it. Then I'll stay after it.

By Anonymous Anonymous, at January 30, 2008 at 4:40 PM  

Thank you for posting these numbers, it's exactly what I was looking for. Mitt can still do this! I won't give up hope until he does.

Actually 36+25=61, not 51, so Romney will have 61 after Montana and Utah.

I'm used to the MSM selling Romney short but not on the Romney blogs.

Thanks for the encouragement.

By Anonymous Mathematician, at January 30, 2008 at 5:06 PM  

This was Hugh's worst case scenario.

I actually expect Mitt to pick up some steam as he emerges as the only viable alternative to McCain. I expect the intelligent Huck supporters to break for Romney regardless of what Huck says or does. These are evangelicals...and they want a federal marriage amendment, which McCain doesn't offer.

Given how much McCain has turned his back on conservatives, I can't reasonably foresee him ever getting 50% of the republican vote...anywhere.

Anyone know the contact info for James Dobson. He has to see the impllication of having Mccain get the nomination. If he can come forward and endorse Romney, that may make a difference

I wish James Dobson would come out and endose Mitt. He has got to realize the implication of Mccain getting the nomination and how that affect the families. He may actually make a difference.

And if Huckabee has the American people's interest in mincd. he will drop out and endorse Mitt. People can get so blind.

By Anonymous Anonymous, at January 30, 2008 at 5:53 PM  

It took a while for the conservative backlash to knock Huck off but he was eventuallly done in.Mitt's momentum is lagging about two weeks behind and he's just missing some wins.McCain is greatly benefitting from name ID as a he stays a hair in front of Mitt. Mitt's ID is rising but not quite fast enough to keep up. But here's an ironic twist. The MSM is gleeful to point out the demise of Rush's influnence but they are actually being a Rush multiplier by talking about it.There's people that know about Rush but don't listen to him. The media is happily announcing that Limbaugh doubts McCain's creds as a conservative.So the narrative is becoming "is McCain conservative enough" and "conservatives are supporting Mitt by a wide margin. The only question is are enough people hearing the anti= McCain message enough to go vote against him? The states coming up have a bigger issue with illegal immigration that some we've seen already so maybe that will help.But yeah Lapdog Huck is certianly hurting by staying in.64% voted against mcCain last night,that's a bright spot.

From Marc Ambinder of The Atlantic, via the Mitt Report:

"For Republicans, I'd say John McCain has a distinct edge in California, New York, New Jersey, Alabama, Massachusetts, Arizona, Connecticut and Tennessee.
Mitt Romney has an edge in Utah, Maine, Montana, Alaska, West Virginia.
Mike Huckabee used to be the governor of Arkansas.
And Missouri is a toss."

I disagree right off the bat with Massachusetts going for McCain; the few polls I've heard have Romney way up. This is the first prediction I've heard about Maine, Alaska, and West Virginia.

By Anonymous Anonymous, at January 30, 2008 at 6:26 PM  

Hey Guys I already post one but its Marisa Radford once again anyhow as I said I am so happy that Mitt stood up to Mc.cane John was such a bad out of line cocky, rude and so immature, i was so irritated with hem when he started to laugh at Mitt, i do not understand why John acts that way he is so full of it, he needs to nock it off, but anyway i wish Mitt luck to be president, anyhow take care everyone

By Anonymous Anonymous, at January 31, 2008 at 1:26 AM  

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