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Wednesday, January 9, 2008
posted by Timotheus | 10:46 PM | permalink
Reader Glenn sends along a suggestion for Romney to respond to the new Huckabee ad going up in Michigan that talks about a President being like the guy you worked with instead of the guy who laid you off:

"I think Mitt needs to put out an ad addressing this (apparently) important characterization issue before the other candidates label him the way that ad is trying to do. He needs an ad showing his family (like your co-worker, worrying about his family), and discussing how he helped businesses like Domino's and Staples come back to life, including the Olympics and Mass. governor things, how he fought to get those businesses, olympics, and state up and running even when the odds were against him. Then he needs to say, he understands their struggles, their worries about their families, but that running (or helping it get going) an economy is not something you'd want to entrust to just anybody. You'd want someone with experience, success out there in the real business world, who's created jobs and resurrected companies...and then end with something funny about not being the guy who laid you off, but the guy who turned things around at the company you work at and helped out you and your family."

Or in my words, "In the end, Americans want a President who reminds them of the guy who turned the company around, not the guy who ran it into the ground."
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9 Comments:


I'd like someone at Mymanmitt to look into the possibility of Mitt winning 2nd place across the board, and 1st place being split between the Mayor, the Senator and the Minister (at least through Feb 5th. Assume Mitt is a close second (within 5%) in all races, and 3rd place is WAY behing (i.e. 15% or more). Are all delegates in all states split proportionally? It seems to me that if he keeps getting 2nd place, he could still end up with the most delegates.

Anyone up to the task?!?



When Mitt returned to Bain & Co to save it from financial ruin, wasn't one of the remarkable things about it his ability to do so without layoffs?

Huckabee is making statements about private sector issues he never had to face, and looks like an armchair cynic for doing so.

I guess one could argue that Huckabee created a host of new jobs with ballooning government employment.

By Anonymous Anonymous, at January 10, 2008 at 1:24 AM  


In case you missed it, you were quoted by Elizabeth Holmes in the Wall Street Journal yesterday.



Mitt needs to run an ad highlighting the missing girl incident, when he shut down his company for three days to look for an employee's missing 14-year-old daughter in New York City. That is such a touching story!! Now that is NOT the guy who "laid you off!"



The problem with this line of reasoning for Huckabee is he does not work real jobs.

Preachers and Politicians are not the same as Post Hole Diggers and Postal workers.

By Anonymous georgiamom, at January 10, 2008 at 9:17 AM  


I LOVE that slogan! I hope he uses it tonight and it gets on every channel.



I agree that Mitt should hit Huck and the others on lack of experience in creating jobs. Perhaps at tonights debate let it rip that he is the only one that knows what its like to deal with what happens when people like Huckabee raises taxes, and how it effects jobs.



In response to Huckabee's comment about him representing one of worker the people and Mitt representing someone who fired them, Mitt could say that he represents someone who has created successful companies that in turn created jobs.

By Anonymous Anonymous, at January 10, 2008 at 5:43 PM  


In response to Mike's question:
Here is a great find (don't have the link, sorry.)

Can Romney take 2nd place all the way to the nomination?
By Thunder Posted in 2008 -

[Update]
RealClearPolitics is starting to track delegate count, so this will start to grow in
importance.
********************************************

Delegates needed to win the nomination: roughly 1231 delegates are needed.

Of those delegates, 1000 can be obtained through primaries/causes, the rest are
unpledged delegates. (2000 available elected delegates, 462 unpledged delegates)

Of the contests that have happened so far we get the following.

Mitt Romney 30 or 43% so far or 3% of total needed
Mike Huckabee 21 or 30% so far or 2.1% of total needed
John McCain 10 or 15% so far or 1 % of total needed.
Fred Thompson 6 or 8% so far or 1 % of total needed.
Ron Paul 2 or 2% so far or 1 % of total needed.
Rudy Giuliani 1 or 1% so far or 1 % of total needed.
Duncan Hunter 1 or 1% so far or 1 % of total needed.
Total Delegates so far 71.

The following is a list of winner take all states.
Rudy Giuliani is expected to win New Jersey and New York on Super Tuesday, February
5, 2008, and those states award their delegates on a winner-take-all basis.

John McCain will likely win Arizona, which is another winner-take-all state, giving
him 53 delegates on Super Tuesday.
Mike Huckabee should win the winner-take-all state of Georgia, to earn him 72 points
on Super Tuesday.

Mitt Romney is strong in the winner-take-all states of Massachusetts, Vermont and
Utah, which yield a total of 96 delegates.

Fred Thompson can be expected to win the winner-take-all state of Tennessee,
assuming he wins a majority of the votes, for a total of 55 delegates.

Total winner take out numbers
Rudy Giuliani 153
Mitt Romney 96
Mike Huckabee 72
Fred Thompson 55
John McCain 53
Total winner take all 429.

Total so far plus winner take all states = 929 leaving 1071 delegates

Rudy Giuliani 154 or 846 needed delegates
Mitt Romney 126 or 874 needed delegates
Mike Huckabee 93 or 907 needed delegates
John McCain 63 or 937 needed delegates
Fred Thompson 61 or 939 needed delegates
Total delegates allocated so far = 497 delegates.

That leaves a total of 1503 delegates left.

What percentage of the remaining delegates does each candidate need?
Rudy Giuliani 154 or 846 needed delegates 56% of the remaining delegates
Mitt Romney 126 or 874 needed delegates 58% of the remaining delegates
Mike Huckabee 93 or 907 needed delegates 60% of the remaining delegates
John McCain 63 or 937 needed delegates 62% of the remaining delegates
Fred Thompson 61 or 939 needed delegates 62% of the remaining delegates.

However, if the current trends continue, we will see the following delegate counts.

Mitt Romney 43% or 646 delegates
Mike Huckabee 30% or 450 delegates
John McCain 15% or 225 delegates
Fred Thompson 8% or 120 delegates
Rudy Giuliani 1 or 1% or 15 delegates

While Romney is going to win some states, especially in the west, and will not
always get his 43%, there is a good chance that the average will stay the same.
While it is unlikely that Rudy will continue to do so badly, but there is no reason
to think he will take off either. You can also expect either McCain, Thompson or
Rudy to implode and either leave the contest, or just become an after thought.

This would bring us to the following delegate count

Mitt Romney 772
Mike Huckabee 457
John McCain 228
Fred Thompson 181
Rudy Giuliani 169

This brings us to the

The Republican Party does not have super-delegates. It does, however, have 463
unpledged delegates, 123 of whom are Republican National Committee members.

This would bring the need delegate count up to 1231 delegates needed or a total of
2462.

Mitt Romney 772 or 459 delegates short
Mike Huckabee 457 or 774 delegates short
John McCain 228 or 1003 delegates short
Fred Thompson 181 or 1050 delegates short
Rudy Giuliani 169 or 1062 delegates short

At this point, the only candidates who have enough delegates to be consider are
Romney and to a lesser extent Huckabee.

So, if McCain, Thompson, and Rudy release their delegates, we would also have the
following totals.

John McCain 228 or 1003 delegates short
Fred Thompson 181 or 1050 delegates short
Rudy Giuliani 169 or 1062 delegates short
Total released delegates: 578

There are also another 193 delegates from minor candidates. Add in the unpledged or
other delegates 1234 delegates. So if Romney gets 40% of these delegates, and
Huckabee gets 60% then we would have the following count. (this is being generous to
Huckabee).

Mitt Romney 772 + 493 = 1265
Mike Huckabee 457 + 740 = 1197

Giving Romney the Nomination.




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