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Wednesday, January 9, 2008
posted by Kyle Hampton | 1:43 PM | permalink
Reader James points out some interesting data:
My Man Mitt,

Great blog.

According to CNN's exit polls, some interesting info comes to light:

Romney wins the vote of those who approve of the War in Iraq (37% to McCain's 33%), whereas McCain wins the vote of those who disapprove of the war (44% to Romney's 19%).

Romney wins among those who identify themselves as Republicans (35% to McCain's 34%) and among those who consider themselves Conservative (38% to McCain's 30%).

Romney wins among Urban voters (34% to McCain's 32%).

Romney trounced McCain with voters who placed illegal immigration as the most important issue (56% to 19%).

Romney won among voters who don't want gay civil unions (36% to McCain's 32%).

Romney won among voters who had positive feelings about Pres. Bush (37% to McCain's 32%).

Romney won among those who think the next president should be more conservative than Bush (35% to McCain's 31%).

The strange data here is that Romney's wins the support of those who approve of the War in Iraq/War on Terror, whereas McCain overwhelmingly wins the vote of those opposed. Is this strategic voting on the part of liberal independents who don't want to face Romney in the general election, or are Granite Staters clueless about McCain's stance on the War?

The good news for Romney is that 80% of the country is urban (where he won), illegal immigration is the most important issue in many states (South Carolina, Florida, Nevada, California, etc.), which issue Romney won, and conservatives went with Romney (and very few states will have the liberal leanings of an heavily independent GOP New Hampshire vote).


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I just donated more $$ today and am getting in touch with the campaign here in SoCal. People, don't stand on the sidelines..give it a go and let's see where Mitt stands after Super Tuesday.

Here's an interesting post from NRO:

By Anonymous braddahmike, at January 9, 2008 at 2:56 PM  

Nice recap of the crosstabs of which groups voted for each candidate. Here's why that's important, going forward ---

The odd thing about having so many candidates for President - with the leadership vacuum caused by a sitting President who cannot run - is that each early Primary has its vote spread across many contenders.

It will continue to be that way, until more candidates drop out.

The good news is that it makes it easier for a newcomer like Romney to get into the race. The bad news is that the media has greater power to anoint a favorite and give him/her blessed coverage, when they don't like a candidate.

Since the media's role is magnified by the 8 candidates on the Stage (including what idiot questions the media asks) and the media's choices as to who to cover/favor, that means we should expect some 2nd place finishes for Romney along the way as par for the course. The media is too powerful for it to be otherwise, for any candidate who is new on the scene.

Add to that the undeniable fact that Iowa and New Hampshire are not very representative of Republican base states (Iowa, with the huge evangelical population that Huckabee cleverly leveraged; and New Hampshire, with their growing-more-liberal block of Independents who can swing wildly either way, who like a maverick like legitimate war hero McCain), and the one true Republican who appeals to all 3 legs on Reagan's coalition is fighting uphill.

If all Republican states had 60% evangelicals, Romney should go home. If all Republican states had a huge Independent block, same deal. They aren't representative of the other 48 states but aberrations on each flank of the bell curve. Therefore, the predictive value of Iowa or New Hampshire in picking the Republican nominee is questionable.

Since the media have to know this, it almost looks dishonest to trumpet great victories in Iowa or New Hampshire. A whole lot of voters haven't been heard from yet, maybe 98% worth.

The media's rush to annoint a victor with maybe 1% of the states votes in, shows that early headlines aren't predictive - although they may/may not generate cash donations to needy candidates who do well.

Since everyone knew that the Presidential election would be held next November, if most voters haven't ponied up financial support for flake candidates to this point, maybe that support is thin anyway.

On the Democratic side, both Clinton and Obama have huge financial war chests, and nearly everyone sees it as a 2 person race unless Edwards starts winning.

Romney and Giuliani are still the big guys with the war chest on the Republican side. Whether McCain can persuade core Republicans who don't like him to open their wallets, now, remains to be seen. He'll undoubtedly get some, just as Huckabee got some, but this race is not Arizona or Arkansas. This is where the big boys/girls play.

All of this underscores why your crosstab breakdowns of who voted for Romney are encouraging. The tea leaves look like "Republican base" to me, and inside those numbers are financial contributors as well as future voters.

We'll see more of those more typical Republican voters in the States ahead (with South Carolina an interesting test of whether evangelicals will vote for their faith again, or their views against soft immigration record, versus whether Thompson will take some of their votes, etc.).

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