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Tuesday, January 8, 2008
posted by Aaron Gulbransen | 1:06 PM | permalink
Here's a few excerpts of an entry I wrote on Conservablogs.com, entitled New Hampshire is a Must Win...If Your Name is John.

"The point is, as far as determining the outcome of this particular race, the possibility exists that New Hampshire will do little to nothing. There is no dispute that if John McCain wins New Hampshire it will be as a result of those “independent” voters and thus, the idea that this helps determine a Republican Nominee is absolutely ridiculous. After all, shouldn’t it be the Republicans that determine the Republican nominee?

Remember, Conservatives don’t like John McCain. Most Republicans don’t either. Don’t get me wrong. John McCain was an American Hero. He served honorably in Vietnam and was a Prisoner of War for several years. There was a time he had a chance to go home, but he refused because others couldn’t. He was tortured for his country and for that he was an American Hero. Our country owes him eternal respect and a debt of gratitude for that. However, since then his public service has been far less than stellar."

I go on to say:

"If McCain wins New Hampshire on the strength of the “independent vote”, what does that gain him? New Hampshire is not a winner-take-all primary state. In fact, only few states are “winner-take all”. If McCain were to win, then Romney would be a close second and still have the delegate lead. The numbers don’t lie. After three states, McCain would have fourth place, zero place, and first place finishes under his belt. Governor Romney would have second place, first place, and second place finishes under his belt, with Michigan and Nevada coming soon after, both states likely to go his way. Romney would then have a large share of the momentum.

If McCain doesn’t win NH, he has no path to victory and is dead in the water. If he does win New Hampshire, he’s still barely plodding along."

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