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Thursday, September 13, 2007
posted by Kyle Hampton | 11:18 AM | permalink
Douglas Schoen says that Rudy Giuliani will not be the Republican nominee. Shoen looks at the state polls and sees a bleak picture for Giuliani. Based on the current picture of state polling, Giuliani faces the very real prospect of not winning a single state before Feb. 5:
No biggie, Giuliani's people argue - they are sitting in the catbird's seat when Feb. 5 rolls around. That's the day a half dozen big states go to the polls. But while Giuliani holds leads now in major, moderate states such as New York, Florida, California, New Jersey, Connecticut and Illinois, politics is like pool: The first shot changes the next one. If Giuliani loses to Romney in the first three states and to Thompson in South Carolina, a strong Super Tuesday showing is a fantasy.

This is a theme that I've been playing with for some time now. Admittedly, I am no electoral analyst, but even a cursory look at the history of electoral politics shows that Giuliani is tempting fate by banking on these large states. Says Lary Sabato in his latest entry over at the Crystal Ball (his emphasis):
Mesmerized by the numbers in fairly meaningless national surveys that mainly measure name identification and personal familiarity, the DC doyens cannot stop talking at their Georgetown cocktail parties and on their TV shows about the all-New York match-up (maybe Michael Bloomberg, too, they add excitedly). We'll see. Maybe it will end up that way, but if it does, it will be because the Empire State candidates win the campaign starting this month. Real people, even most activist voters, do not make up their mind on presidential choice until they have to do so. In Iowa and New Hampshire, still the most crucial nominating states despite all the tinkering with the schedule, voters are tough-minded and wonderfully heartless in picking the people who probably will be the general election standard-bearers. We look forward to some egg-on-face retrospectives on mainstream media coverage if those influential early voters decide to ignore the Beltway script. Should Hillary and Rudy both fall, it will be omelet-on-face treatment.

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