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Wednesday, February 6, 2008
posted by jason | 7:40 PM | permalink
After a day of shoveling snow, sleeping on the couch and replying to emails, (It was a snow day in Chicago) I have come to a conclusion. Earlier in the morning I mapped out the possibilities for Mitt. We also had a bit of chatter amongst Romney-bloggers on our secret undercover email list. Plenty of food for thought. I agree, Mitt's chances of winning are small (unless the NYTimes will do it's job!), but the GOP and Mitt have more to gain from Romney staying in, then we have to lose. ( <--I spelled it right!!!)

1. The party only can win by a continually vetting of the front runner, John McCain. One of the reasons for McCain's huge rise in December was the fact he laid dormant for nearly 6 months without a serious eye being given to his candidacy. Surely McCain has some major problems. While team McCain would prefer to avoid this, we gain nothing going into a general election with a candidate who has only had 1 month of serious vetting. Nothing.

2. By forcing McCain to work for his wins in proportionally allocated states, McCain is forced to appeal to the conservative wing of the party. The feeling of inevitability will not be his campaign theme, but perhaps humility and contrition to the base that he actually needs in the general. We don't want to have to vote for him because he sucks less, but rather, because he has decided to represent us. With Romney threatening a clean nomination from McCain, we have a McCain that has no choice but to extend his conservative streak past CPAC.

3. For Romney's sake, I think it's a mistake to drop out before Huckabee. Huckabee really wants to claim he was the second choice so that he can pick up his campaign in 2012. Romney cannot allow this. There is little left electoral-wise for Huckabee to win in the upcoming primaries and caucuses. Romney needs to stay in to make sure Huck doesn't have the opportunity to become the conservative voice to McCain and operate in a vacuum uncontested.

So, there is my reasoning. Romney needs to stay in till McCain has it wrapped up. Its good for McCain, the GOP and sure enough, for Mitt himself.
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Totally agree. Romney will start doing even better now since Huck's south factor is mostly gone. Regardless, it's best for the GOP base and Romney's name and profile if he stays in till McCain is done. This way Romney can garner more support and be ready for 2012 since there is NO WAY McCain will win the election!!

By Anonymous Anonymous, at February 6, 2008 at 8:00 PM  

And sound reasoning it is, Jason. Mitt staying in keeps the door open for 2012, for sure.

If he's doing this with 2012 in mind then I think it's a smart move. He can do just like Reagan did in 1976, go all the way to the convention, then give a really strong speech that overshadows whatever McCain has to say. After Reagan's speech and Ford's convention win the delegates were left wondering if they voted for the right candidate, they should be thinking that again in 2008.

Then he can take the next 4 years going around doing fundraising for conservative candidates in the midterm Congressional elections, various conservative causes, and for any state Governors, give conservative policy speeches around the country, and then when 2012 is here go into the Iowa State Fair, win the Straw Poll and run it again, only this time he'll have major name recognition, people won't forget him, I know I won't and would love to vote for him again if given the opportunity.

Well sheeesh, how altruistic do you think Romney is? Or me and other conservatives for that matter? You overlooked the biggest reason, that Romney needs to stay in until there is zero chance he will be president, because even a seriously reformed McCain is nowhere close to a Romney. And you know the saying about teaching old dogs new tricks. I don't think McCain can reform, myself. I won't blame Mr. Romney if he's had enough, but then where do conservatives look for representation? That's the big, gaping, black hole. My friends. (ughh)

By Anonymous Anonymous, at February 6, 2008 at 8:45 PM  

What if Romney makes peace with Huckabee? Admittedly not likely, but together they would clean up anything left and quite possibly take the nomination from McCain.

Also, if Romney can deny McCain a majority and go to the convention he might very well find himself on the ticket or at least the cabinet - as we've seen, he has the [economic] knowledge and number-crunching abilities that McCain lacks, and would complement him pretty well.

That said, where can I get my Mitt '12 bumper sticker?

He has to stay in to block Huckabee. It's Wednesday and I just got our first push poll from Huckabee surrogate. So annoying. It was the one about Romney changing his view on "life" at least 5 times in the last 15 years. I kept yelling at the phone, "Liar!!!!" but the guy just kept droning on and on. Won't vote for Huck. Won't vote for McCain. Thankfully, Mitt is staying in so I can at least caucus for him on Saturday.

Go Mitt (even if it's setting up for 2012)!

I agree that in addition to the small chance of a win in the nominating process (I'm not wishing ill on McCain's health, but he IS 72...), the primary advantage is to put conservative pressure on McCain, get him to commit more tightly to conservative positions than he otherwise would. Plus as you say, in a brokered convention, any number of things can happen, and Romney would have to have a major say.

And finally, the long view of the next four years and a possible run in 2012 (with a little more gray at the temples than he had this time).

Romney needs to stay in and keep taking delegates from each state. He can get the real conservatives in every state, and that essential base will keep McCain from getting enough to get the nomination uncontested. Then it goes to convention, and he has a better shot. Huck's broke, and the south is over, so he's not going to pick up anything anywhere else. You're right; Mac won't win in the general, so once a liberal has screwed things up royally bad, Romney can step in a pull a Reagan on their Carter IF Romney doesn't get the nomination this time around. Reagan ran thrice before he won, and was 70 years old when elected.

Hi Jason,

I like your thinking. I definately think McCain needs some additional vetting. Let's start with the temper problem...

Oh, my! Someone else was thinking the same thing as I was about 1976 and Ronald Reagan. Remember in 1976, everyone wanted to shut Reagan out, but he stuck it out and was stronger than ever in 1980. I think this would be history repeating itself. Yes, he needs to stay in.

Keep changing Mitt. You are headed in the right direction and have made remarkable time in your travel. We just need a little more conservatism. A little less equivocation. Maybe some time to prove your steadfastness to those that still doubt you. You have shown us a capacity for change that McCain abhors and Huckabee self-righteously rejects. You are so close to Reagan conservatism. Don't stop now. Let it go deep into your heart just as your remarkable persona has gone deep into ours.

Just wanted to mention here -

Huckster needs to make peace with Mitt. Mitt hasn't been going around exciting religious prejudice against people of Huckster's religious persuasion. Mormons embrace evangelical Christians in the political arena. Apparently it hasn't gone the other way in the republican party.

I think Mitt would embrace a coalition with the Huckster. I don't think Huckster would be open to it.

I like what I'm hearing about Mitt'12, and Mc not winning the general, what about the judges that the dems would put in the COURT. That scares me!! Any thoughts.

I think Romney should stay in the race. I mean Tom Brady lost too, on Sunday, and no one is telling him to quit football! Mitt should keep up the debate.....his message is good and great.

Also, every state should have the privilege of casting a vote for Mitt.

Anyway McCain is going to need the debate practice himself if he’s going to stay battle ready for the Dems. He may be on his way to a slaughtering.

What's even worse than McCain winning is the media crowing about how they defeated Rush and company. They are really revelling at the prospect of burying the right wing of this country.All they are doing is rubbing salt in the wound and creating more of a backlash against McCain and Huck to some degree. This thing is far from over even if McCain goes on to get the nom.I'm sure his campaign consultants are coming up with a way to pull the wool over people's eyes today ar the ACU conference.Yeah I have a feeling that Huck will become a vampire candidate and come back every 4 years.He loves the limelight.

Keep changing for the better Mitt. You are headed in the right direction and you do not have far to go. Maybe time will prove the steadfastness of your conservatism to those that still doubt you. You have drank from the well of conservatism in a way that old man McCain stubbornly refuses and minister Huckabee stupidly rejects. You are so close to Reagan conservatism. Don't stop now. Let it go deep into your being just as your remarkable persona has gone deep into hearts.

Here's a good one we need to get out:

McCain skips vote on economic stimulus
Republican presidential candidate John McCain skipped a difficult Senate vote Wednesday on whether to make 20 million seniors and 250,000 disabled veterans eligible for rebate checks as part of a proposed economic stimulus package.

"I haven't had a chance to talk about it at all, have not had the opportunity to, even," McCain said. "We've just been too busy, focused on other stuff. I don't know if I'm doing that. We've got a couple of meetings scheduled."

By Anonymous Anonymous, at February 7, 2008 at 9:48 AM  

Something needs to happen re: McCain's temper. Can his button be pushed so that he shows his true nuttiness in public, like he does on the Senate floor??? I think a couple of freak outs in public would really turn people off and they would see him for the nutcase that he is. Someone needs to get pushin' on those buttons.... it's only a matter of time.....

I’ve been thinking the same thing, however, lately I had some other thoughts about Romney staying in the race. Personally, I think Romney should concede at CPAC, a perfect time and place. One of the pluses of doing so is to leave McCain and Huckabee to battle it out and in the process we will find their true colors, especially Huckabee. Need I say more about what will become of the race between them? A nice speech at CPAC with some extremely SUBTLE hints at 2012 or beyond would be impressive and admirable. I doubt the Republicans will win this year, especially with Bush’s not-so-popular 8 years. Romney needs to prepare himself to save the US after Clinton/Obama and worse, McCain, IF! all.

Bad news

At the Corner Byron York is report a dramatic slow down in e-mail from the Romney campaign and suggests that Mitt may look to pull out soon. he quotes a Romney source that says, York's belief about a pullout and lack of e-mails are mostly correct

The worst thing that could happen next to McCain being elected as a so claled conservative, was to have Ronmney cease his campaign for president.
He said it would be better for the party and country if he got out now, bulls_ _ _ _. The party, republican, is more like the democratic party than ever before. It is responding to the national press, instead of actually speaking the truth backing up with facts. The only republican candidate that is left believes in an unproved theory of global warming. Computer models dont make it so. No one that I know of today was alive when the dinosaurs ruled. No one has seen what happened to change the earth temp to freeze them out. It is speculation, a theory, backed up by people who only 20 years ago thought we were going into an ice age and that we would all be dead 30 years. Global warming one time is said t cause hurricanes, that their frequency will increase as well as intensity. When it dpoesnt happen, in Gulf of Mexico, global warming is supposed to the cause of that. I guess it would be fair to say that bill clinton's indescressions could be blamed on global warming. Foolish, but why not. Everything else seems to be blammed on so called global warming. What we have left is Socialism on a stick with whoever is elected, the democrats are just more on the stick

By Anonymous Anonymous, at February 7, 2008 at 1:28 PM  

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