I was watching the Today Show this morning listening to the reports and Tim Russert (who I lose more respect for the more he speaks because he is the king of wrong-headed conventional wisdom) was trying to attribute Romney's Nevada lead to Mormon voters. Look, I don't doubt that there are several voters who vote for Romney that are Mormons, but this isn't a Mike Huckabee situation for two reasons.

First, Russert's assertion ignores what we have learned so far from the race. Romney has been winning across the spectrum of Republican voters. There is a reason that Romney has the most votes of any candidate in the race. Romney's appeal comes not from identity, but from message and personal qualities. If Romney was reliant on Mormon voters to win in any other state, he would have lost badly. On the contrary, Romney has been the only consistently appealing and performing candidate in the race. Thus, to attribute Romney's appeal in Nevada to the population of Mormons ignores what has happened so far in the race.

Second, Mormons, whoever they vote for, are an insufficient demographic in any state (except Utah and maybe Idaho) by which to win a state's primary, much less Nevada. The LDS website says that there are 169,714 members in Nevada. The Census Bureau estimates Nevada's population as 2,495,529. That means that even in a state with a significant LDS population, Mormons are only 6.8% of the state's population. Assuming that Mormons vote in equal proportions as other citizens (and there's no reason to assume otherwise), even getting all of the Mormon vote puts you in at Ron Paul territory. You don't even break double digits. Thus, Romney's more than thirty percent support cannot be attributed to Mormons voting in Nevada. To match Romney's support, Mormons would need to be 5 times more of the voting electorate than they constitute of the overall population.

Russert's assertion that Nevada would vote for Romney because of Mormons ignores both the race as it has developed so far and the demographics of Nevada. It is idiotic to continue to spout such falsities. But that seems to be what Russert does so well.

Labels: Nevada