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Tuesday, March 13, 2007
posted by jason | 8:45 AM | permalink
Admittedly, Romney is not first place in the polls a year out from the primaries. But he is in a strong third place and is slowly ebbing up. McCain seems to be slowly bleeding his numbers away (tanking) and Guiliani is the shooting star at the top. Not to worry, things can change on a dime in the world of elections. Here are two of the latest polls coming out today, followed by my 4 month average for Romney:


CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. March 9-11, 2007. N=401 registered voters nationwide who are Republicans or lean Republican. MoE ± 4.9. Link

Candidate 3/9-11/07 1/19-21/07
Guiliani 34 32
McCain 18 26
Romney 9 7
Gingrich 9 9
Brownback 2 2
Huckabee 1 1

Rasmussen Reports Poll


Candidate

3/13/07

3/06/07

Guiliani

37

34

McCain

19

16

Romney

10

9

Gingrich

11

12


My 4 month polling average for Romney

Month

Polling Average

December

5%

January

6%

February

7%

March

9-10%


The last poll I have rounded all numbers to the nearest percentage point. Since March has yet to conclude most polls have Romney 9-10% so at the end of the month I will average them out.
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5 Comments:


You have McCain's numbers in the Rasmussen poll mixed up for the two weeks. McCain is at 16% on the 13th and 19 on the 6th.

By Anonymous Anonymous, at March 13, 2007 at 11:41 AM  


How disgusting having a blog for that guy.



Why don't they take Gingrich out of these polls?!?!?!

He's not running and will say yes or no in SEPTEMBER . . . he KNOWS that's way too late in the process to get anything going.

The reason I gripe is that Gingrich takes votes away from Romney (IMO). Gingrich votes are generally votes for someone who's "very conservative" or "super-smart". Romney would draw away a larger percentage of those than Rudy or John. I'm sure Brownback and Huckabee would see a tiny bump as well . . . but Romney stands to gain the most from excluding Gingrich from the polls.



Hold on Jeff! It helps Mitt that Newt is in the field. It does two things. It stops 2nd tier from getting any traction (good for Mitt). It sucks the life out of any fundraising effort from other candidates.

Also, Newt's candidacy is never going to work. We may forgive his affairs, but the MSM will never. While he can work on his soul, he can never rehibilate his candidacy. Sorry for being cold to Newt, but that is just the facts.

At any rate, people are going to be surprised. Mitt's burn rate is not going to be high and he is going to be the top fundraiser. Mitt just need to glacierly get others used to the idea of his candidacy and you will see those numbers steadily climb. I think Hugh Hewitt's book, A Mormon in the White House, needs to seep in the culture (two months or so) and that will be the beginning of Mitt's upswing. Bottom line Mitt needs time and Newt is buying Mitt a ton of time.



Good points Redcorn. Also it's nice having Newt as Mitt... (what names! behold the future!)...will look good passing him!...probably in next weeks Rasmussen.




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