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Thursday, March 8, 2007
posted by jason | 1:34 PM | permalink
The latest Gallup poll has some interesting conclusions from the pollsters:


Mitt Romney stands out as the candidate who is significantly less well known than the others. Over half of Republicans say they don't know enough about Romney to be able to rate him. His image among those Republicans who do know him is quite positive. This suggests the possibility that if Romney maintains his net positive image among Republicans as the campaign progresses, he could be in a position to become more of a factor in the presidential nomination picture.


Both Romney's overall likability numbers and likebilty numbers among Democrats have risen.



Yet his name recognition is still low, thus showing that Romney's chance to define himself (as noted by Gallup) is still strong.



But the real story is shown among republican respondents to the poll, as reported at The Politico:

Favorable

Unfavorable

Net Change Since 2/11

Giuliani

78%

10%
-2

McCain

67%

19%

-1

Gov. Romney

37%

11%

+12

Gingrich

52%

30%

N/A


Wow! Romney's likability among republicans has climbed nearly 12% Both Giuliani and McCain have dropped. It is starting to look like Romney's showing at CPAC and his TV adds are paying off. I did a rather informal check on www.pollingreport.com and found that Romney has climbed an average among all the polls by 1 percent each month since December- 5%, 6% and 7% in February. So far the first few polls in March have Romney averaging 9%. These aren't huge gains like Rudy's, but with Romney's favourability climbing and Rudy's slipping, we are starting to see the kind of growth that Romney needs.

(First two graphics are courtesy of Gallup and the last one is pulled from www.politico.com
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4 Comments:


My husband is not very much into politics. I had him sit down and watch Mitt's speech at CPAC the other day and when it was over I asked, "What do you think?" He said, "I know the other guys and I will vote for Romney. Now what's for lunch?"

By Anonymous GeorgiaMom, at March 8, 2007 at 4:06 PM  


Let's not put too much into these polls. Most of them have a margin of error of between 4-6%. Most people seem to dismiss that margin of error, but it is important to understand that if a 2-way race broke down to America favoring one candidate 45% and the other 55% , it must be seen as a statistical dead-heat.

That being said, 12% is a significant rise for Romney, and worth noting.



On further reflection about Rudy's real weakness, I think it come down to this:

Aside from judges are Presidents unable to affect the pro-life agenda?

If Rudy can promise not to promote pro-abortion policies as well as nominate pro-life friendly Judges then he will go a long way. However, let us not fool ourselves and forget that the Executive Branch executes the law and that in of itself will affect the pro-life cause.

How will he run the Department of Health? Will it be more pro-abortion friendly? What about the morning after pill? Who will he appoint to the U.N.? Will it be someone who stands against the pro-abortion agenda?

He will probably be forced to answer these questions and I don't think he can navigate through these minefields. I will be fascinated to see what happens.

Mitt has proven himself and has gone through the ringer from skeptics and is still standing and his a good position in this race. However, Rudy still faces the searing questions of how he will respond to these gray areas of the Executive and I am guessing he has peaked too early and will come down as social conservatives reflect on what this all means.

By Anonymous Anonymous, at March 8, 2007 at 9:50 PM  


In response to the question, "Aside from judges are Presidents unable to affect the pro-life agenda?"

Don't forget the sign they bills into law at the White House. If a Democrat Congress sends lots of Bills making abortion more prevelant or approving federal funding then yes, the President has a great deal of power.

Also think about cloning and embryonic stemcell research. This is the only Bill the current POTUS has vetoed.

Lastly, do Republicans want a pro-abortion person at the head of our party?

I do not.

By Anonymous GeorgiaMom, at March 9, 2007 at 12:23 PM  



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