The Internet seems to be having a profound effect on the status of this election. Basically every speech a candidate gives is posted on the web now it seems. That doesn’t even count when you have a Macaca YouTube moment moment.

A new phenomenon that really gained steam in 04 with Bloggers for Bush is grassroots sites in support of a chosen candidate. These sites tend to be started by some guy (or girl- but oddly enough usually a guy) who just likes the candidate. Some sites might have 10-20 visitors a day, others might have 2000 or more per day. These sites do not necessarily lead to more votes on voting day (at least to my knowledge) but they do in fact indicate the level of support a candidate’s supporters are willing to offer. They also serve to get the candidates favorable message out. As someone who runs one, admittedly I am quite privy to them and read many each day.

Along with polling I would make the case that fundraising, endorsements, infrastructure and Internet support (though to a lesser extent) are indicators of a candidate’s strength. I would probably say the last week or two before an election polls are a clear number one although a year before they are only one factor among many to be looked at in context. I would not dismiss polls (actually I post them myself) but I wouldn’t rely too heavily upon them at this stage. I will argue/conceed that an across the board average of them over several months would indicate certain trends.

This graph represents the blogger count given by Daniel Owen at Oval Office 2008. As best as I can tell it is accurate, but these numbers change every day and there are always more sites hidden in some Internet nook, unchecked. Feel free to let us now if you think the numbers are off. This is something I will be keeping track of and giving occasional updates.



(again thanks to Justin for the graph)