posted by Justin Hart | 9:52 AM |
permalinkThere has been a lot of jive-talk in the blogosphere (can I say jive-talk?) about Mitt Romney having a bad week. I indicated to a few people last week that he has the
endorsement edge and probably the money edge as well; he organized a robust South Carolina team and a very solid Georgia team.
"Oh," I say in realization, "you mean he had a bad week in the blogosphere?!" Here are the facts of where we stand and why I'm not worried (and I'm not worried for different reasons
than those that help Dean Barnett sleep well.
1) Nobody but political junkies are paying attention to the election right now. - Accoding to a Pew Research Report just 24% of Republicans are paying attention to the 2008 race right now.
2) The early polls reflect name recognition not voting decisions - For example, in late February 2003 Joe Liberman was leading the Democratic contendors.
3) Romney is better positioned than past candidates at this point in the race. Let me draw you a picture:
For the dark horse candidates at this point in the race (especially pointing out Governors from small states) Carter was at 1% in 1975; DUkakis 1%; Clinton 2% in 1992. Even McCain stood at just 3% in 1999. Once again, name recognition does not a primary make.
4) Romney has STRONG favorability ratings among voters who have heard about him. A recent Quinnipiac poll clocked this number at 83%.
5) How about what really matters - the KEY primary states? - Let's take Iowa and New Hampshire:
Romney's polling at this point is even more impressive when you consider that his December 2006 numbers in Iowa and New Hampshire were 6% and 9%.
In short, this is a historically excellent start for a no-name small-state governor running for President.
Labels: bill clinton, carter, comparison, dukakis, iowa, mitt romney, New Hampshire, Polls, primaries, primary
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