First, the pervasive commentary over the last week to the effect that Michigan was do-or-die for Romney was, I think, nonsense. Even if Romney had lost narrowly to McCain in Michigan, which is not a winner-take-all state, he still would have been the overall leader in delegate count and would have received more votes from Republicans than anyone else so far.

The next event, in South Carolina, will most likely be won by neither Romney nor McCain. The fact is that the Republican race is wide open and could well result in a open convention. The media should stop trying to pressure candidates to drop out every time they don't win a primary, and Republicans should value a candidate like Romney who is willing and able to compete not just here and there, but effectively across the country.

In looking at the exit polling at CNN, the surprise is in how broad Romney's victory was. He won most of the demographics in the exit polling, with McCain only winning a handful. McCain won among those who back a path-to-citizenship policy for immigration, but only by 5 points over Romney. That suggests that immigration was not as big an issue for Michigan Republicans despite a bad economy and job competition. Romney won pluralities among both conservatives and liberals, with McCain winning among moderates. Strangely, McCain won pluralities among those who disapprove and strongly disapprove of the Iraq war. Mitt handily won among those who support it, even though McCain has been one of its strongest advocates.

Two primary wins, two seconds. No one else has been as broadly competitive so far. He has the most delegates and the most money in the bank, and he’s back to campaigning in South Carolina for Saturday’s primary. He’s in a statistical tie for second there. With four primary contests and three different winners, there isn’t a solid front-funner in the GOP but there is a front-runner for now, and that’s Mitt Romney.

Am I the only one breathing a sigh of relief that the front-runner coming out of Michigan isn’t McCain or Huckabee?

Labels: Michigan