Is it just me, or are the ARG polls wacked out? It seems every time I see them compared to other polls, the ARG poll is the outlier. Don't get me wrong, I'll take the result, but I am not sure how reliable it is. Has the ARG ever consistently predicted any race?
Also, did pollsters just stop polling republicans in Nevada? This is the first poll I have seen in like a month on the Republican side!
The story in that poll is the nearly reciprocal movement between Huckabee and McCain. Huckabee polled at 23% last month while McCain garnered only 7%.
Two possible explanations:
1) Republicans outside of the traditional evangelical stronghold states have done their due diligence on Huckabee and reached a reasonable informed conclusion. I have said before that Huck is like a box of glazed doughnuts. Eat one and you are hungry for more, but eat more and you start getting sick, and sicker and sicker the more you eat.
2) McCain is still riding the bump from NH as Republicans started looking for a familiar, somewhat consistent face to nominate and came home to John McCain thinking he was the only viable option come November. I believe Mitt's very strong win in Michigan may send a clear signal to those voters that they don't have to settle for McCain.
Either way, Romney maintains his 28%, and it would appear this time that he is less susceptible to a McCain or Huckabee surge. Thompson won't surge enough to overcome him as any Thompson bump will come largely post S.C. (if at all).
Assuming this poll is correct, and without analyzing the internals, it appears Mitt is in a solid position for NV.
When the NV voters realize that the other candidates have once again written their primary off (ala Wyoming) and that Mitt WILL NOT write off their votes and their state, he'll win in a LANDSLIDE...especially building off of his MI momentum.
I don't know about the polls, but I think with Mitt's organization, advertising capability, and the fact he'll actually pay attention to NV (unlike the other cherry-pickers), he'll kill in the caucuses there.
I posted on another blog, if NV might effect SC? They are on the same day, however NV's caucus will start at 9am that means results might come out on the east coast by mid-afternoon. If Romney wins strong in NV, it could help in SC. Granted the fact that vote day is on a Saturday will cause most votes to be cast earlier; without the after work effect. Still word on Saturday afternoon that Romney wins in NV might help his numbers a little.
I agree that Romney, who is going to NV on Thursday will help with the NV ego which has felt overlooked.
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