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Tuesday, January 15, 2008
posted by Nealie Ride | 7:07 PM | permalink


I just posted this story at NY for Mitt and quickly discovered it wasn't up here yet.

This story comes from Hugh's blog:


Romney 35, McCain 29, Huckabee 15, Ron Paul 10, Giuliani 4?

Posted by:
Hugh Hewitt at 6:33 PM

That's what Geraghty the Indispensable is hearing.

Cue the fat lady for Huck and McCain. The former can't get above 15% with a huge effort, and McCain can't win in an open primary state, one crucial to the fall, even when the Dems take a bye?


Of course, these aren’t the final numbers. After getting burned in both Iowa and New Hampshire, I now am extremely cautious about putting value on outcomes.

But, isn’t this leaked exit poll data encouraging? We’ll see how it goes throughout the evening.
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3 Comments:


I posted about this elsewhere a few days ago (hoping for a win in MI), but his win will be discounted for the following:

1. "Home court" (where was that advantage a week ago? what about all the pundits who said if he can't win NH he's dead?)
2. He has too much money for campaigning (he doesn't feel your pain even though you voted for him and he's created jobs for people like us)
3. The weather (how were those dems and dem-leaning indies supposed to propel McCain to another open primary win if it SNOWS?!?)
4. Mitt pandered to MI (by telling them how he'd help revive their economy...gasp! Perish the thought at a well-thought-out solution for individual states in a recession!)
5. The MI voters didn't want to put their stamp of approval on NH's vote, and want to leave the primary open for the rest of the state's primaries to fairly decide this national party nomination (yes, normal voters think on this level of complexity...oh, wait, they really only care like normal people about their own problems)
6. Huckabee and Thompson have been mostly campaigning in MI (true for one state wonder Thompson and not so true for Huckabee-vote-for-me-I'm-your-buddy-and-p astor-in-chief)

Lost in all this will be the fact that McCain is already going super negative on Romney in SC mailers (abortion and taxes...the irony!) and saying it's not negative (no MSM coverage on the hypocricy), and that Huckabee will place a distant 3rd today...where's his national swell of support again? Ah, yes, back at the pulpit on Sundays. All the while, the MSM will now say the following to keep Mitt down:

1. NV is "home court" because there are 12-15% mormons and he has momentum from his MI win (on his other "home court" wait...can there be two home courts?)
2. He's giving up on SC because he can't win there so he's not a national candidate (que spike in irony meter for Thompson, Guiliani, McCain, and Huckabee)
3. His money's STILL an unfair advantage...rich people SHOULDN'T run for government office!

Go Mitt! I hope this gets him in the driver's seat to the nomination, and at least kicks Hucka-crit and McLame out of the way. I'd way rather have Thompson somehow win (unlikely) or Guiliani make it (more probable, not great, but better than the first two).



YEEEEEAAAAHHHHH baby break out the VERNORS and party!!!! Man I hope you aren't just leading us on. I'm not even going to pay ATTENTION after this because this was ALL Mitt needed to seal the deal, in my uninformed mind. It's over. Huckabee can go back to DJ heaven and McCain can finally invest in that Winnebago he's been eyeing.



I'm not attempting to lead anybody on. I was excited when I saw this at Hugh Hewitt's blog.

I check out the other sites he referenced. They got this info from somewhere. It closely parallels the polling data we've seen the last few days.

So, in my view it appears credible.




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