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Tuesday, January 15, 2008
posted by Jeff Fuller | 1:19 AM | permalink
Most Romney supporters were pretty peeved about how the media has downplayed his WY victory. (a recent Newsmax story addresses this) However, I can see how it was easy for the media to ignore WY results since it's the least populous state and due to the odd caucus system they used (mostly party insiders and/or major activists.) However, their 12 delegates were as many as NH awarded, and Mitt actually got more delegates out of WY (8) than McCain got out of NH (7).

But that's in the past already . . . but NV looms in the future and we need to insist that it should count. Sadly, we're already seeing how downplayed NV is in the national media coverage.

Even though the the media is covering NV pretty heavily for the it for the Democratic side, they're relatively ignoring it for the GOP. My paranoid side says: "Figures, since Romney stands a good chance of winning it . . . of course the MSM will downplay it." I'm actually convinced that Romney will win it (and if he wins MI, Romney will win NV BIG). Unfortunate timing has the NV caucus on the same day as the SC primary (which is monopolizing the media's coverage.)

But is SC inherently more important than NV for this nomination?

OK, so we know that in recent history, no GOP candidate has won the nomination without winning SC. But this year is very different with at least three candidates still with very credible claims to taking it all, and two others who are still considered "top-teir" candidates. Usually, someone has established themselves after IA and NH and races into SC with the mighty momentum. Or, in the past, the race has been winnowed down to two people already and SC has been the final elimination round for one of them. Not so this year. Some are arguing that FL may play the role this year that SC has played in the past.

But lets look at the two states objectively.

Both are on Jan 19th

NV: 34 delegates up for grabs
SC: 24 delegates up for grabs

NV: Important swing state/purple state (i.e. we need someone who can show/run strong in such a state for the general election)
SC: Solid Red state . . . whoever the nominee is will win SC and most of the south no matter what.

NV: First western state on the docket (and much of that region are swing states)
SC: First southern state primary . . . and the south is pretty much locked up for the GOP.

Objectively, NV looks MORE important than SC to me!

Romney supporters need to start trumpeting the importance of NV relative to SC. Let's get this message on blogs, in comment sections on important blogs/articles/etc . . . I encourgage people to forward this message to your friends/contacts. It would be great if we could get an email campaign together focused at news organizations/journalists/prominent bloggers and asking them why it's being ignored so much . . . demanding that it get fair coverage (at least as much as their giving to the Dems in NV. I don't think any of us want another of Romney's wins to be written off like WY was. LET'S MAKE NEVADA COUNT!

Jeff Fuller
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4 Comments:


Honestly I think that Romney might want the media to continue to discount Nevada. If all eyes are glued to South Carolina, than Romney could as he did Wyoming win Nevada in more than convincing fashion.

If he wins Michigan tomorrow than his numbers in South Carolina will improve and he might even sneak into second place there as well. I am not holding my breath. However a victory in Michigan and two stealth victories in Nevada and Wyoming could see him push ahead in Florida.

Huckabee winning South Carolina will turn it into a two man race as McCain will surely be dead politically by than having not won a single of these three states.

If the media makes two much noise, than Nevada could be in play which is something the Romney camp would prefer it not be. Stealth politics right now would mean that the more the media ignores or denigrates Romney's strength the more easily he can win in States that are not getting any love from the media regarding their Caucuses and Primaries.

Big Tuesday will be difficult since the media will be spending its time oogling over states that have Giuliani and Huckabee fighting it out. The funny thing is that when the dust settles the media could find itself even more embarassed as Romney secures a commanding lead in number of delegates.

Honestly I think that if Romney wins Michigan and takes Nevada, he will finally be considered a legitimate candidate by the MSM. They will continue to throw crap at him in order to make him look bad, and they will do their best to prop up Rudy who has all but lost any momentum he has had. Once McCain fizzles and dies, the media will begin their Rudy Momo campaign by throwing Huckabee under the bus.



I just got an e-mail from Chris Cillizza from the Washington Post and in it he states that if Romney were to win in Michigan, we would have three different Republicans winning in the first three states.

I quickly replied to him that we already have three different Republican winners in the first three states - you remember the home state of our Vice President.



I agree about NV and the importance it could have for Romney. I also agree that the media will overlook any Romney victory. NV is very huge whether Mitt wins in MI or not. A NV win after a MI win helps to create more momentum and offset any negative from a SC loss. A NV win after a MI loss would be huge also (however a win will be hard after a MI loss)

I would urge Romney to go to NV after MI and campaign. Many in NV are apparently feeling overlooked by the Republicans with so much effort on SC. An appearance would help greatly, given Mitt's past success with the Republican base.



I am in rural Northern Nevada and haven’t seen a lot of Mitt here. There are Ron Paul commercials, Obama and Clinton commercials, and Mitt radio ads. The latest poll on the news today shows McCain first, then Guiliani, Huckabee, and Mitt in 4th. We all know the danger of believing polls, however, Mitt has definitely slipped here. That could very well all change today after Michigan. The other issue is that the Saturday caucus comes over a long weekend - kids have Friday and Monday off. A lot of people I know who would have voted for Mitt are going away (of course I’ve pleaded with them to stay and vote, then go skiing …). I guess normal people aren’t as obssessed with this as I am; go figure …
I think, depending on the results today, tomorrow morning’s news will show us where the focus of the media will be. If Mitt does well in Michigan, I expect he will focus full-throttle on Nevada, as his chances here are probably still better than South Carolina. If so, I am totally up for doing everything possible to get the media out here. We’d have to give them a reason to be here, instead of South Carolina, which could be tough. I think the only way to do that is to ride the Dem’s media exposure. There will be media here covering that, since the Dem’s S.C. primary is later on the 26th (I think). The Dem race here is turning out to be nasty, which is what the media loves. So whatever happens in Michigan, I don’t think Nevada will turn into another Wyoming for the GOP winner, whoever it is. Still, it wouldn’t hurt to try and do what we can to ensure Nevada gets the media play Mitt needs.
Of course I could be way off on all of this! I just know that I’m committed to doing just about anything to help Mitt get elected.




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