The survey of 582 likely Republican Presidential Primary voters was conducted January 10, 12 and 13, 2008. The survey has a margin of error of +-4.1% at the 95% level of confidence.
Steve Mitchell has been the most accurate pollster in Michigan in the last four presidential campaigns. Polling for the Detroit News in the 2000 MI GOP Primary, his final polling correctly had John McCain winning over George W. Bush. Polling again for the Detroit News in the 2004 MI Dem Primary, his final polling correctly showed the top four candidates in the order they finished and had John Kerry at 52%, his final margin. In the 2000 General Election, his final poll had Gore leading by 5% in Michigan, he won by 5%. In the 2004 General Election, his final polling had Kerry leading by 2% in Michigan, he won by 3%. In his final national poll for WDIV-TV in Detroit, he had Bush winning by 4%, he won by 3%.
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it does take into account, I believe. They are asked if they planned to vote and on which side. The key is how many indy's/dems vote on the Republican side. They are using past models for crossovers; if they are correct great, if the number is larger than expected than Mitt is in trouble.
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