posted by SteveT | 9:28 AM |
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Although, I believe that Mitt will win Iowa, this a very plausible outcome if things go somewhat differently.
Here it is ....
Huckabee wins Iowa, Romney a close second. Rudy a distant 3rd or fourth.
Romney wins Wyoming, which nobody is contesting. This is however, good for bragging rights later.
Romney then wins New Hampshire, Rudy a distant 2nd or 3rd. Huckabee finishes not far behind Rudy. Momentum from this win propels Mitt Romney to victory in Michigan, with Rudy 2nd, Huckabee 3rd.
Mitt then wins Nevada and Huckabee wins South Carolina.
Having gone 0 for 5 Rudy's campaign collapses. Why would Rudy's campaign fall apart after not winning any of the early contests? Think about it. For almost a year now voters have heard that Rudy is the front-runner for the nomination. Week after week of defeats will raise questions about why Rudy is not able to win. Failure to win first in the Midwest (Iowa), then in the Northeast, again in the Midwest and finally in the South and West, will take their toll.
This will be extremely difficult to explain away for a candidate who's main argument is that he is electable. Romney and Huck will be hyped to the hilt for their success and commentary about Rudy will only focus on why voters are rejecting him. Ninety percent of the voters who have only paid a limited attention to the race, will be shocked at Rudy's apparent dramatic collapse. Having suffered too many torpedoes to the Steamship Rudy, it will flounder and sink rapidly.
With Rudy out of the way, Florida then becomes a battle between Huck and Romney, as does the Feb 5th primary.
I really like our chances with this scenario. Although, I like our chances better with an Iowa win, which will lead us to almost certain victory.
Fans of Rudy Giuliani will contest the likelihood of this happening. However, the electoral history of both parties is clearly on the side of the above scenario, with no candidate ever having been able to survive such a poor start.
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