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Friday, November 30, 2007
posted by SteveT | 9:28 AM | permalink
Although, I believe that Mitt will win Iowa, this a very plausible outcome if things go somewhat differently.

Here it is ....
Huckabee wins Iowa, Romney a close second. Rudy a distant 3rd or fourth.
Romney wins Wyoming, which nobody is contesting. This is however, good for bragging rights later.

Romney then wins New Hampshire, Rudy a distant 2nd or 3rd. Huckabee finishes not far behind Rudy. Momentum from this win propels Mitt Romney to victory in Michigan, with Rudy 2nd, Huckabee 3rd.

Mitt then wins Nevada and Huckabee wins South Carolina.

Having gone 0 for 5 Rudy's campaign collapses. Why would Rudy's campaign fall apart after not winning any of the early contests? Think about it. For almost a year now voters have heard that Rudy is the front-runner for the nomination. Week after week of defeats will raise questions about why Rudy is not able to win. Failure to win first in the Midwest (Iowa), then in the Northeast, again in the Midwest and finally in the South and West, will take their toll.

This will be extremely difficult to explain away for a candidate who's main argument is that he is electable. Romney and Huck will be hyped to the hilt for their success and commentary about Rudy will only focus on why voters are rejecting him. Ninety percent of the voters who have only paid a limited attention to the race, will be shocked at Rudy's apparent dramatic collapse. Having suffered too many torpedoes to the Steamship Rudy, it will flounder and sink rapidly.

With Rudy out of the way, Florida then becomes a battle between Huck and Romney, as does the Feb 5th primary.

I really like our chances with this scenario. Although, I like our chances better with an Iowa win, which will lead us to almost certain victory.

Fans of Rudy Giuliani will contest the likelihood of this happening. However, the electoral history of both parties is clearly on the side of the above scenario, with no candidate ever having been able to survive such a poor start.
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Possible, but Huckabee won't win South Carolina.

But, you still think Mitt will win Iowa, right? What scenario do you see playing out in Iowa?

I believe immigration will be a decisive issue in Iowa. As it becomes more clear that Huckabee is on the wrong side of the issue, I expect Mitt will prevail.

Here's another scenario. Mitt Romney will win Iowa by 5 or more points. Tancredo and Hunter will drop out. Mitt Romney will win New Hampshire by 10 or more points. McCain will drop out. Mitt Romney will win Michigan by 8 or more points. Mitt Romney will win the Nevada caucuses by 12 or more points. Mitt Romney will cruise in South Carolina by 7 or more point
Thompson and Huckabee will both drop out. Mitt Romney will win Florida by 5 or more points. Giuliani will see the writing on the wall, and he will drop out a full week before a not so "Super Tuesday." Then order will be restored to the Galaxy. And then Republicans, finally united, can set our sites on Hillary.

Furthermore, Romney will pick either Governor Mark Sanford or Senator Jim DeMint of South Carolina as his running mate. I'm thinking that Romney will prefer to stay away from Washington politicians with this one and go with the Governor. The only thing that I'm not sure about is whether or not Congressman-Governor Elect Bobby Jindal will already be in this V.P. mix.

P.S. Giuliani will probably win New York and New Jersey.

Reality always plays out differently than we think it will. Don't lure yourself into believing what you want to believe

All I'm trying to say is that it is a little bit early to start panicking. We should all be happy that Huckabee has already brought his number up to where it is (ahead by 3 according to Rasmussen) because it would not be a surprise victory if Up-Chuck-abee won Iowa now. But it also is important to note that Romney and others have just begun to focus their sites on Up-Chuck-abee. I do not see Romney losing Iowa. He has fought too hard for it and spent too and will spend much time and money there to lose the Hawkeye State. It is always a good thing to downplay one's chances but not while demoralizing the base. This post was a bit premature. And those of you who felt disheartened after reading it should cheer up. Romney will win Iowa. And it will be a bigger deal now than before because a lot of people are now expecting Iowa to go for Up-Chuck-abee. Not when Up-Chuck-abee was worse on taxes in Arkansas than Bill Clinton!

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