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Tuesday, June 5, 2007
posted by jason | 2:54 PM | permalink
I think he does.
Many people are speculating that Thompson could pull from Romney, and it's quite possible. The polls have not shown this in the least, even Yepsen had to use to totally unrelated polls to make a case Thompson might hurt Romney:

Here's how it works: The Register's Iowa Poll showed last month that without Thompson in the race, Romney leads McCain 30 percent to 18 percent in the state. But when Thompson is added to the mix in an American Research Group poll of Iowa GOPers taken about the same time, Romney's support drops by about half.

By contrast, McCain sees no similar erosion to Thompson and might even gain some support. That ARG poll showed that with Thompson in the race, McCain becomes the Iowa front-runner with 25 percent. Rudy Giuliani is in second place with 23 percent, and Romney is in third with 16 percent. Thompson is in the back of the pack at 6 percent.

Problem here is one polling company is pro-McCain the other is a respectable Journal using one of the best IA pollsters.

But here is my point, and only time will tell if I am right. Giuliani is loosing mucho numeros over the last few months. Who are they going to? Our friend Freddy. Romney is gaining and McCain's tanking, with a later a resurgence more than possible. Yet with Thompson pulling numbers from Giuliani, we see the soft support disengaging from Rudy thus adding to that groups malleability and potentially taking away a key opponent out of the mix.

Romney's supporters are anything but soft and are hardened through the months of constant attacks from MSM and his opponents and the realization of quality and substance (obviously I am biased :) ). Thompson has taken a lot of soft support from Rudy, but those are willing to switch once are willing to switch twice, especially in a long election like this.

My thesis? Thompson is pulling from Giuliani, taking his edge away. Romney is slowly but steadily making solid gains. Thompson right now is un-vetted and enjoying the fickleness of voters, whom I think are anything but settled on the man they know so little of. So in my opinion Romney has the most to gain, Thompson could easily fade or plateau (or not) and McCain is definitely the wild card who's chances hinge on the immigration bills success and the surge, or everyone else in the field having an affair with a senate Page.
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1 Comments:


After seeing Fred on Hannity and Comlmes last night, both my husband and I kept saying, "How can anyone take this guy seriously?" He spoke in so many generalizations that it was obvious that he does not have the command of the issues that Romney has. I would not take anything for granted but my husband said it best when he said, "This guy is bound to say something dumb that will offend enough people that he won't get too far."




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