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Tuesday, February 6, 2007
posted by Justin Hart | 1:06 AM | permalink
MMM reader Sean emails us the following:
You wouldn't know it from the title of this article, but this is a major news item on Romney's progress with voters.

The latest poll out of Iowa is even more stunning than the recent one in Iowa. From Dec. 2006 until Feb. 2007, John McCain has gone from 26% to 27% support (+1), Rudy Giuliani has dropped from 28% to 20% (-8), and Mitt Romney has gone from -
get this - 6% to 20% support among likely voters (+14). He's now tied with Giuliani and moving on McCain in Iowa, during a period in which arguably he has been the most attacked among all Republican candidates.

The link is here

Romney meeting with business leaders in Iowa last week.

If Romney can maintain his existing support and keep adding to it, he
looks to make things pretty competitive in the coming presidential race.
that is some Iowa surge.

ADDENDUM by Jeff Fuller:

Justin beat me to it on this one. But here's some additional info:

I still think it's WAY too early to read much into these polls (since they're still largely about name recognition at this point), but the Mitt-ster made significant strides among Iowans in the poll done this last week:

Polling Data

If the 2008 Republican presidential caucus were being held today, for whom would you vote?

Feb. 2007

Dec. 2006

John McCain



Rudy Giuliani



Mitt Romney



Newt Gingrich



Chuck Hagel



Mike Huckabee



Sam Brownback



Tom Tancredo






It's actually funny to go to the link and read their headline. The only real big movement (i.e. "new News") on either side of the aisle is Romney's HUGE jump (FOURTEEN PERCENTAGE POINTS IN 2 MONTHS). I thought it deserved a headline and so gave it one here.

These new Iowa Figures match up quite well from the recent figures out of New Hampshire:
Sample Dates: January 31 - February 1, 2007. Sample Size: 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely Republican primary voters living in New Hampshire (427 Republicans and 173 undeclared (independent) voters):

New Hampshire
Likely Republican Primary Voters Dec 2006 Jan 2007

Brownback - 1%
Gilmore 1% -
Giuliani 25% 20%
Gingrich 14% 11%
Hagel 2% 4%
Huckabee 1% 1%
Hunter - -
McCain 29% 27%
Pataki 2% -
Romney 9% 20%
Thompson - -
Undecided 17% 15%

However, recent polling in Michigan and in South Carolina have Romney still far behind . . . and this other poll from Iowa has Romney improving . . . but not to 20% . . .

It is nonetheless undeniable that Romney has consistantly been the candidate picking up the most steam in all these polls. I've been following these cold-call polls for nearly a year . . . and I'm glad to see the days of Romney being 1-2% are long gone. He's building a strong team and he's getting his message out in the earliest states well. Look for this momentum to continue to build and for his polling to keep improving as well (though there may be a dip or two in the next few weeks as a normal "correction factor" following this big of a statistical bump.)

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Two polls in NH have Romney at 20% and now this one in IA. I think we are starting to see a trend!

Ummm... check out ARG's site - someone in the IA newspaper quoted the wrong numbers. The reason the IA numbers match up so well with the NH numbers is that they are one and the same! :) The IA poll actually has Romney at 11%, but still with momentum.

"this other poll from Iowa" that you link to is the same poll that the report from the Angus-Times is purported to be talking about. The newspaper just got it wrong and reported the NH results instead!

That is a great picture...

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