I have never been a huge fan of Bob Novak. Since his days on Crossfire where he looked like a useless pawn, to his weekly Evans-Novak reports that appear to be more gossip than anything, I have never quite figured out why he gets so much credit. Generally as a rule, nearly everything he tells us seems to come up wrong. I know he had some glory days in '76 covering the elections with Brit Hume, but basically I don't think he offers really anything too useful, other than the opportunity to say, "Bob Novak said...." when it's good for someones candidate.

So with that fair and balanced framing I offer you this quote from his latest article on Florida:

Private overnight polls after Fred Thompson's withdrawal from the presidential race Tuesday showed a bump for Sen. John McCain in Florida's Republican primary Jan. 29.

Thompson did not endorse McCain, even though the former Senate colleagues are on close terms with each other. Nevertheless, McCain appears to have picked up much of Thompson's Florida voter support and now leads Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani in the last primary before Mega Tuesday Feb. 5.

Bob, time to put down the peace pipe. I don't care what McCain's internal polls say, he does not lead Romney in Florida polls taken after Thompson's withdrawal. Take a look Bobby:

• SurveyUSA 01/23 - 01/24 550 LV 30 28 McCain +2.0


• Rasmussen 01/23 - 01/23 675 LV 23 27 Romney +4.0


• Mason-Dixon 01/22 - 01/23 400 LV 26 30 Romney +4.0

(McCain numbers on left, Romney numbers on right)

If you included the numbers that Insider Advantage had with just republicans (It's taken without the Dems and indies- it is a closed primary people!)...

• Mitt Romney: 30%


• John McCain: 23%

...you would get this average after Thompson drops out:

• Romney 28.8%


• McCain 25.5%

Romney +3.3%

If you take the five polls between NV/SC and Thompson dropping out (from the 20th- 22nd) you get these averages:

• 
  McCain 22.6


• Romney 22.2

McCain +0.4

If you take the 7 polls between NH and SC/NV you get this average:

• McCain 23.7%


• Romney 17.9%

McCain +5.8

Some points:

1. Novak doesn't look at polls, only McCain campaign press releases (half joke)


2. McCain lost momentum after SC/NV (he ticked down 1.1%) and Romney gained momentum (He ticked up 4.3%)


3. Both Romney and McCain have gained after Fred leaving. I am guessing that Romney gets the bulk of Fred's supporters, while McCain gets some as well, but really what McCain is picking up are former Rudy supporters who are sensing trouble on the Good Ship Giuliani.


4. Romney has gained 11 points in FL since losing NH. Tell me, did any of you political junkies think that was possible?