Here's what I see and hear from Greenville, SC.

First of all the "reality check" is that Romney is playing for third place, but anything could happen since some polling shows a 6% spread with up to 40% who say they could change their mind. Also, he got a good bump out of Michigan that might just sink Fred's campaign altogether if he beats Fred by more than a few percent (polling shows them neck and neck for third).

A majority of those not listing Mitt as their first choice, still have a positive perception of him, and could actually vote for him--especially if they saw him on Leno. In my opinion, going on Leno tonight was genius! Much more effective than if he had stayed in SC through Election Day.

As Jeff [Fuller of Iowans for Romney] pointed out earlier, most people here realize that the rules have changed this year and South Carolina probably won't pick the nominee as it has in the past. The most passionate folks here are the Fred Heads who are dying to keep him in the race. Very little passion towards Huckabee since the well-informed tend to be more passionate and the well-informed here know he's a fraud. Unfortunately, there's still a chance that the less-informed will still vote for him.

I helped set up for a Georgia group last night so the room would be ready for them and then I actually got a call from them today asking if I was still committed. They were planning on 2000 calls from the Greenville headquarters today--not a large number, but many have already been made this week. Most of the calls over the past week have been just to Romney supporters, or those leaning towards him to urge them to get-out and vote.

We got our first snow here on Thursday--canceling some of the campaign schedule and that was disappointing, but that might work to our favor on Saturday when the second snow of the season is expected.

In my opinion, low turnout favors Romney because his support numbers have been consistent over the past 2 - 3 months here while McCain and Huckabee have had a much more fickle support base and many of them are casual or less-passionate voters.

The fact of the matter here is that Romney's polling in SC shows similar numbers to what he had just prior to New Hampshire, but his subtle pulling out near the end has greatly reduced expectations and no one is even suggesting that he needs a win here. If he finishes second, it will be a victory for him.

Tagg Romney and Senator Jim DeMint also did a live studio interview on local talk radio today and came across very well. There was no sense of urgency or attacking other candidates, they simply presented a message about Governor Romney's qualifications and character and they made a pitch specifically to the undecided voter out there. It showed a lot of class and a sense of composure about where the campaign stands saying, "We realize that many of you are passionate about your candidate, but if you haven't made up your mind yet, we'd urge you to consider Governor Romney because he brings more to the table than anyone else when it comes to the most pressing issues facing us today--the economy".

Because South Carolina is a split winner-take-all state (meaning district delegates are WTA and then the at-large delegates are state-wide WTA), you could easily see Romney leaving here with no delegates, but he may pick up one or two here in the upstate.

One final note, the polls are open here until 7PM local time which is 4PM Nevada time and it sounds like we could have Nevada results as early as 1 or 2 PM local. Who knows, but maybe news of that here will have an added impact!

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