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Monday, December 17, 2007
posted by Justin Hart | 10:00 AM | permalink
Patrick Ruffini, former Rudy consultant and new media political guru, says: "I never thought I’d write that."

Ruffini's claim can be summarized thus:
  • Huckabee and McCain are "flaky and/or can't win"

  • Rudy is in trouble

  • Huckabee has made Romney the Iowa underdog

  • Huckabee hasn't a prayer after Iowa for New Hampshire

  • McCain has a chance after Iowa but everyone knows he's the establishment


Patrick chimes in next with this:
Enter Mitt Romney. He hasn’t been Mr. Excitement, but he has succeeded in positioning himself as the acceptable default — the “nobody ever got fired for buying IBM” guy. His cornering the market on “undecided (non-evangelical) conservatives” is the beginning of this consolidation. The blue-haired ladies who sit on the county committees won’t make a fuss over him. There will be no “Stop Romney” movement should he vault to the top of the polls, as he almost certainly would after Iowa-New Hampshire wins. (Indeed, the way he has muscled himself into the mold of GOP establishment frontrunner will be studied for decades to come.) Now at 15% in the national polls, he has demonstrated an adequate-enough base of national support to be able to leverage big wins into the nomination.

...

So, unless Rudy manages to turn the election into a referendum on leadership-in-a-time-of-crisis in the next three weeks, at least how it stands now, say hello to Mitt Romney as our nominee.

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