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Wednesday, November 14, 2007
posted by Justin Hart | 1:50 PM | permalink
Kevin Madden, Romney's National Press Secretary released the following e-briefing on the state of the race:
The latest public polls of Iowa and New Hampshire, just released last night, show that these traditional early primary states are shaping the trend dynamics of this race.

And the trend dynamic is competitive in both states.

Some thoughts:

First up, Iowa. This latest public poll indicates Governor Romney’s campaign is right where it needs it to be in Iowa: in a competitive position as the caucus date draws closer.

The campaign has built a strong organization in the Hawkeye State and has communicated his message of a stronger America to Iowa voters. Governor Romney will continue to campaign aggressively in Iowa as we get closer to January and the race tightens.

With less than 50 days until the caucuses, Iowa is coming into focus and the other campaigns are shipping resources into Iowa with ads and staff. Fred Thompson is airing television ads in Iowa, Mike Huckabee is focusing his efforts almost exclusively on the state and Mayor Giuliani is spending more time in the state along with a heavy rotation of surrogate travel and direct mail.

The activity by other campaigns makes sense: Data from the last four competitive Iowa caucuses provides a great deal of evidence as to why these campaigns are putting more resources into Iowa.

In the last four competitive races, the first place finisher averaged 34% of the vote. The lowest winning percentage was 26%. In a competitive multi-candidate caucus, a result in the 30s would be a strong finish.

And, don’t forget: SOMEONE has to finish second in Iowa. And, in the last four competitive races, the second place finisher averaged 26.8% of the vote. Based on the standing of the candidates now, there is room for someone besides Fred Thompson to surge into second place.

Mike Huckabee’s second place finish in Ames is just one indication of the strength of other campaigns in Iowa. The Giuliani campaign confirms this, having recently declared that Mayor Giuliani is "in a race with Huckabee for second place in Iowa."

So, as more money, more staff and more ads are poured into Iowa, the race there will continue to tighten.

In New Hampshire, the new public poll indicates Governor Romney is in a competitive position just under 60 days before the expected primary there. Governor Romney is in a strong position to compete in the state as a result of his hard work at town hall after town hall, regular travel throughout the state and an effective deployment of campaign resources designed to reach voters at the grassroots level.

Other candidates have also spent plenty of time, effort and resources in New Hampshire. Both Mayor Giuliani and John McCain have been all over the airwaves, with McCain even guaranteeing his campaign will win the primary. Mayor Giuliani has also been flooding the post offices with direct mail. And, Fred Thompson has traveled to the Granite State’s capital of Concord with a promise to campaign “early and often” while competing to win the state outright.

So, there is ample evidence that New Hampshire is going to be a tough battle on the road to the nomination. Giuliani, McCain and Thompson are all invested in New Hampshire and committed to winning the state.
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